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Bama probably makes top 4 even if it has a loss remainder of season...
Posted on 11/2/16 at 4:09 am
Posted on 11/2/16 at 4:09 am
Bama probably only team left in top 10 that has at minimum a 50/50 chance of making playoff with a loss for remainder of season, providing the loss was close. Lose to LSU, but later wins vs Aub and SEC title game, back in top 4. You can follow the logic.
This post was edited on 11/2/16 at 4:10 am
10
Posted on 11/2/16 at 4:25 am to Tidemeister
If you lose to LSU and LSU does not lose again you will not make SEC title game.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 5:28 am to MrSpock
quote:
If you lose to LSU and LSU does not lose again you will not make SEC title game.
There is no requirement that you have to be a CC although the committee weights that game pretty high. We'd need a lot of help from the other Power 5.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 5:40 am to bama1959
quote:
There is no requirement that you have to be a CC although the committee weights that game pretty high. We'd need a lot of help from the other Power 5.
You wouldn't need much help but every other team in the country would. Right now we all know that there's an unspoken "Bama Rule" that gives Bama the benefit of the doubt because of past success and Saban. A one loss Bama team that misses the title game would make it in. I have zero doubt about that. It's bias but that's what happens when you use a committee.
That said, I believe Bama has played well enough this season to get in even if that situation were to occur even without any bias towards them. There are simply no other teams right now that have a resume to displace a 1 loss Bama team.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 5:58 am to Tidemeister
The only way Bama falls completely out (barring an embarrassing loss to someone small) is if it's loses late to Auburn and Auburn wins out and wins the SECCG. At that time the committee will be pressured to keep 2 sec teams out.
But a loss to any sec school and beating a top 10 Auburn team will push them back to the top and to the SECCG. Nobody from the east has a shot at them.
But a loss to any sec school and beating a top 10 Auburn team will push them back to the top and to the SECCG. Nobody from the east has a shot at them.
This post was edited on 11/2/16 at 5:59 am
Posted on 11/2/16 at 6:01 am to Tidemeister
quote:
a loss
We'll never know.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 6:13 am to Tidemeister
Well that's because Bama never actually loses a game. When a Bama opponent wins, the other team got lucky.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 7:39 am to Tidemeister
There is a chance that the Committee will take a non-conference champion. There is zero chance they take a non-divisional champion. 2011 made sure of that.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 7:45 am to bama1959
quote:
f you lose to LSU and LSU does not lose again you will not make SEC title game.
There is no requirement that you have to be a CC although the committee weights that game pretty high
No one really knows how much weight is given to the conference title game yet. Both years they have been able to take 4 0 or 1 loss conference champs and easily slot them in. For example, Michigan State beat out OSU last year for the slot with the same number of losses but won head to head.
I will say that the committee placed Stanford ahead of OSU after the conference title games, based on them winning a conference title, so I would imagine any conference champ with 1 loss goes ahead of any non-conference champ with 1 loss at the minimum, but who knows. The committee has already been so inconsistent this year based on ranking losses ahead of good wins
Posted on 11/2/16 at 8:17 am to Tidemeister
quote:
You can follow the logic.
the logic is that the winner of the SEC ship is more than likely going to the playoff unless it is an East team
Posted on 11/2/16 at 8:21 am to Irons Puppet
quote:
There is a chance that the Committee will take a non-conference champion. There is zero chance they take a non-divisional champion. 2011 made sure of that.
Actually, I think 2011 shown that taking a non-divisional champ was exactly the right call, and that it all depends on the circumstances.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 8:24 am to Eli Goldfinger
dumb
Posted on 11/2/16 at 8:26 am to Tidemeister
What if Florida wins out and (narrowly) beats Bama in SECCG?
I think UF is in and Bama's out - depending on how things shake out in other conferences.
If UF loses to LSU or FSU and then beats Bama, things will get interesting.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 8:27 am to AUFANATL
I'm not even sure Florida's offense can leave them unscathed at Arkansas. Much less the remaining schedule.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 8:30 am to Irons Puppet
quote:
There is a chance that the Committee will take a non-conference champion. There is zero chance they take a non-divisional champion. 2011 made sure of that.
The only other choice is the CCG loser. I think it would be much more likely for a team like A&M, with one loss on the middle of the season to get in rather than the loser of the CCG, setting up what may be an immediate rematch of that game in the playoffs.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 8:32 am to Tidemeister
It all depends on what the other teams do. There is no way Alabama or any non-conference champion jumps an undefeated Michigan, Washington, and Clemson. Then I think the 4th spot goes to the SEC champion.
Now if one of those other teams lose...a 1 loss Bama should get in.
Now if one of those other teams lose...a 1 loss Bama should get in.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 8:33 am to Rabern57
The Bama nightmare is losing to Auburn and having TAMU win out and go to the SEC Championship. I think the Committee would have a tough time sending Bama over Auburn when Auburn's losses were in September to two of the teams in the playoff and Auburn just beat Bama. It's possible that Auburn wouldn't even go in that scenario, but very tough for Bama to make it.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 8:34 am to LSU Patrick
quote:Really?...who won the game 21-0?
dumb
Posted on 11/2/16 at 8:34 am to MrSpock
quote:In this case, Alabama will not be in the 4 team playoff, but will get to play the winner of the 4 team playoff to determine the national champion. It is how things work
If you lose to LSU and LSU does not lose again you will not make SEC title game.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 8:37 am to Irons Puppet
quote:
There is a chance that the Committee will take a non-conference champion. There is zero chance they take a non-divisional champion. 2011 made sure of that
this is the first time I've ever heard anyone say that the Committee looks at division leaders ("champions"). They look hard at winning your conference because if you leave out a conference champ, you are in a sense dismissing the whole conference as weak. Divisions have nothing to do with it.
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