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Here’s why UF is a 3.5 point favorite
Posted on 9/24/26 at 10:30 am
Posted on 9/24/26 at 10:30 am
Jaden Baugh
Full Season
54 carries - 458 yds - 8.5 ypc
Against Auburn
26 carries - 162 yds - 6.2 ypc
Excluding his 53 yard run
25 carries - 108 yds - 4.3 ypc
With a back like that, Florida can try to limit ole miss to 6-7 possessions (we had 9 against LSU). That translates to < 30 points which gives UF a good chance if they don’t turn it over themselves.
Why Ole Miss has a chance:
Excluding his 2 explosive runs against Auburn:
24 carries - 75 yds - 3.1 ypc
If our linebackers can wrap up, he isn’t consistently getting 5+ yards against an SEC defense. And Philo isn’t a scrambling threat like Leavitt or Kienholz so we can commit more to the run game.
Full Season
54 carries - 458 yds - 8.5 ypc
Against Auburn
26 carries - 162 yds - 6.2 ypc
Excluding his 53 yard run
25 carries - 108 yds - 4.3 ypc
With a back like that, Florida can try to limit ole miss to 6-7 possessions (we had 9 against LSU). That translates to < 30 points which gives UF a good chance if they don’t turn it over themselves.
Why Ole Miss has a chance:
Excluding his 2 explosive runs against Auburn:
24 carries - 75 yds - 3.1 ypc
If our linebackers can wrap up, he isn’t consistently getting 5+ yards against an SEC defense. And Philo isn’t a scrambling threat like Leavitt or Kienholz so we can commit more to the run game.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 10:32 am to Dixie.Reb
Our defensive front 7 is miles better than any front 7 they have seen. Our offense is miles better than any offense they have seen. If we don't lay a stinker in the 1Q because of a hangover I think we win.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 10:34 am to 03 West CoChamps
Ole Miss needs another big game from Echoles. He looked like a Brahman bull in the last game vs LSU.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 10:36 am to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Here’s why UF is a 3.5 point favorite
- National folks still discount Pete as HC
- Betting on a hangover performance from Ole Miss
- Home field advantage for Florida
- Lacy injured
Posted on 9/24/26 at 10:37 am to Dixie.Reb
Front 7 should try to shut him down like Isaiah brown and make Philo beat Trinidad in a shootout.
How is Florida’s oline?
If Echoles Bireau Franklin can get penetration and the linebackers are aggressive they should be able to contain him outside of a few explosive runs.
They are asking a RB to win a shootout against Trinidad.
How is Florida’s oline?
If Echoles Bireau Franklin can get penetration and the linebackers are aggressive they should be able to contain him outside of a few explosive runs.
They are asking a RB to win a shootout against Trinidad.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 10:40 am to Dixie.Reb
I definitely like Florida and think they are going to be a power under Sumrall, but comparing stats this early is sort of fools gold. If Ole Miss plays clean ball and is focused, they will win this game. UF has put up solid numbers but they haven’t played anyone good yet.
That being said, fully expecting a Heisman moment from their QB since it’s in the swamp.
That being said, fully expecting a Heisman moment from their QB since it’s in the swamp.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 11:21 am to 03 West CoChamps
quote:
Our defensive front 7 is miles better than any front 7 they have seen.
I think we are better than Auburn but not miles better. Their problem has been offense the last few years. Really comes down to interior DLine getting push and LBs wrapping up.
I hope Otis see less than 12 snaps because he is a liability unless they run directly at him
Posted on 9/24/26 at 11:24 am to RebelExpress38
quote:agree it’s too soon
but comparing stats this early is sort of fools gold.
Ole Miss played two top 25 teams
We’ve played two nobodies and an Auburn program deep in a rebuild
If you want to know why Florida is a favorite, besides home field advantage we have a much healthier team this weekend:
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/24/26 at 11:29 am to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Jaden Baugh
He’s the real deal IMO. Vision, illusiveness, hard to tackle, and break-away speed.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 11:33 am to Dixie.Reb
I thought I heard somewhere that Florida is one of the top teams in the country in forcing missed tackles and Ole Miss was like #2 in missed tackles.
That could be a storyline.
That could be a storyline.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 11:34 am to SidewalkTiger
quote:in large part due to Baugh
Florida is one of the top teams in the country in forcing missed tackles
Posted on 9/24/26 at 11:36 am to SidewalkTiger
We were much better at that last week but we will have to bring it again.
UF is probably a 3.5 favorite because of the uncertainty around Lacy. If he was a go, it's probably closer to a pick'em. I've liked what I've seen out of JT Lindsay though. Ole Miss actually ran the ball pretty well last week with the RBs averaging a shade under 5 a clip. We just stopped doing it.
UF is probably a 3.5 favorite because of the uncertainty around Lacy. If he was a go, it's probably closer to a pick'em. I've liked what I've seen out of JT Lindsay though. Ole Miss actually ran the ball pretty well last week with the RBs averaging a shade under 5 a clip. We just stopped doing it.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 11:47 am to SidewalkTiger
The good/bad news is most of the missed tackles are in the secondary 
front 7 has been better at wrapping up, but if you get past them it is smooth sailing
front 7 has been better at wrapping up, but if you get past them it is smooth sailingPosted on 9/24/26 at 11:48 am to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Here’s why UF is a 3.5-point favorite
Folks are betting on it more than any college game this week. And frankly, the NFL to boot. I'll watch it.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 11:49 am to Dixie.Reb
Ole Miss is gonna embarrass Florida.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 11:49 am to Dixie.Reb
I dont care about the spreads.
UF has 2 elite running backs and a QB who can do great things when supported by the running game.
The challenge will be to control the time of possession and not let the best player in the country win the game in the 4th.
UF has 2 elite running backs and a QB who can do great things when supported by the running game.
The challenge will be to control the time of possession and not let the best player in the country win the game in the 4th.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 11:50 am to Landmass
quote:
Home field advantage for Florida
25-12 last 5 seasons, including 4-4 last season.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 11:53 am to Lizardman2
quote:we had a burnt out Dan Mullen and retard Napier as HCs
25-12 last 5 seasons, including 4-4 last season.
That mitigates any home field advantage we ma have had.
Even despite being coached by total retards we still pulled off upsets against ole Miss in 2024 and Texas last year
Posted on 9/24/26 at 12:00 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Dixie.Reb
Good summary. The offenses will score points. Whichever has the least number of penalties and turnovers will probably win the game.
Should be a good one, may the best team on Saturday win.
Don't discount the crowd in the outcome. As loud as Vaught Hemingway was on Saturday, the Swamp will be louder. Home field advantage is real.
Posted on 9/24/26 at 12:02 pm to Dixie.Reb
Keeping it simple here… only way I see Florida winning is a multi-possession lead going into the 4Q.
This post was edited on 9/24/26 at 12:03 pm
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