Dixie.Reb
| Favorite team: | Murray State |
| Location: | Oxford |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 4042 |
| Registered on: | 7/21/2013 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: Almost 400 yards to bamas 150.
Posted by Dixie.Reb on 11/7/26 at 5:35 pm to GrizzlyWintergreen
Any update?
1
re: Almost 400 yards to bamas 150.
Posted by Dixie.Reb on 11/7/26 at 5:13 pm to GrizzlyWintergreen
Find someone who loves you as much as Grizzly loves being wrong
What do you want, a cookie?
re: Play the hypothical game: If Arch transfers, where do you think he goes?
Posted by Dixie.Reb on 10/20/26 at 11:20 am to John Rambeaux
quote:
Don't think he'd consider it and quite frankly idk if Kiffin would even want him. But everyone knows who has the best track record for developing QBs.
Kiffin has a good track record for maximizing QB production in college. 0 track record of pro development
ND MOV:
28
52
17
39
11
51
LSU MOV:
41
31
29
39
31
More ND than LSU, but capping impact of MOV at say 35 would reduce their strength rating Im pretty sure.
I also suspect, even without a cap the difference between a 24 and 31 point win is a lot less predictive than the difference between a 7 and a 14 point win. Which is why I asked if you had an S-curve type weighting function
28
52
17
39
11
51
LSU MOV:
41
31
29
39
31
More ND than LSU, but capping impact of MOV at say 35 would reduce their strength rating Im pretty sure.
I also suspect, even without a cap the difference between a 24 and 31 point win is a lot less predictive than the difference between a 7 and a 14 point win. Which is why I asked if you had an S-curve type weighting function
quote:
MOV is not capped.
Well it’s your model, but that explains my issue with LSU and ND. Guess we will find out in a month how predictive blowouts are
re: There were some folks posting Sam Leavitt's stats vs State preseason
Posted by Dixie.Reb on 10/19/26 at 6:59 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
I'm not complaining about them, I'm asking for an update now that he's faced State again.
quote:
I rarely pay attention to what Ole Miss fans say, as they are a battered and broken people
So you want an update from people you don’t pay attention to. And you don’t read the update when you get one. Got it :lol:
re: Friendly reminder
Posted by Dixie.Reb on 10/19/26 at 2:44 pm to SouthernInsanity
quote:
I'll take.. "Things TN fans wouldn't say to Lane's face" for $350.
They literally threw golf balls and mustard bottles at him. I think they would say it to his face.
What type of function do you use to weight Margin of victory? I assume some type of sigmoid function, but curious where the cutoffs are.
SP+ for example caps MOV at 50 points
SP+ for example caps MOV at 50 points
re: Week 8 Power Ratings and SEC slate
Posted by Dixie.Reb on 10/19/26 at 1:33 pm to Quicksilver
Models like this typically dial in around week 10 once you have 9 or so data points for each team. It has gotten less weird every week so that is a good sign for the underlying methodology. I’m still gonna call it out when an LSU fan’s model is over rating LSU :lol:
quote:
Clemson and Texas A&M are both above-average teams.
Yeah, well that’s just like your opinion man
Above average among FBS teams? Sure. But bottom of the power conferences.
And a Kamario Taylor injury dropped the Vegas line 8 points. You don’t see that much impact from a non- QB injury. In fact, if Kamario comes back healthy it will make your ratings worse because LSU will get even more credit for beating an injured team
I’m not saying Ole Miss should be above LSU. I’m saying LSU should be in the same 17-18 point tier instead of way higher. Drop LSU 6 points and ND 5 points and I wouldn’t quibble with the rest
re: There were some folks posting Sam Leavitt's stats vs State preseason
Posted by Dixie.Reb on 10/19/26 at 12:37 pm to SidewalkTiger
Then maybe don’t start a thread complaining about people criticizing Leavitt.
Better yet, stay on the Rant where posters were calling for Landon Clark to play because he’s the next Chambliss :lol:
Better yet, stay on the Rant where posters were calling for Landon Clark to play because he’s the next Chambliss :lol:
re: There were some folks posting Sam Leavitt's stats vs State preseason
Posted by Dixie.Reb on 10/19/26 at 12:21 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
You first said 2, now you say 3. You don't seem to know how many it actually was.
Completed 2 attempted 3. try to read.
Point is, he wasn’t asked to do anything in this game so it doesn’t impact how I think about him at all. He is still the same QB that struggled against MSU defenses at ASU and UK/Ole Miss this year.
re: There were some folks posting Sam Leavitt's stats vs State preseason
Posted by Dixie.Reb on 10/19/26 at 12:06 pm to SidewalkTiger
He only attempted 3 passes of 10+ air yards and none over 20 air yards.
Your defense is good enough to win in spite of him, but beating your chest over a perfectly average win where he completed screen passes makes 0 sense.
I predicted 28-31 points on offense before the game and nothin changed my opinion of the offense/Leavitt
Your defense is good enough to win in spite of him, but beating your chest over a perfectly average win where he completed screen passes makes 0 sense.
I predicted 28-31 points on offense before the game and nothin changed my opinion of the offense/Leavitt
re: There were some folks posting Sam Leavitt's stats vs State preseason
Posted by Dixie.Reb on 10/19/26 at 12:00 pm to SidewalkTiger
Leavitt is an SEC QB in the same way Bo Nix is an NFL QB: technically true but an insult to actual QBs
re: There were some folks posting Sam Leavitt's stats vs State preseason
Posted by Dixie.Reb on 10/19/26 at 11:54 am to SidewalkTiger
Did you watch the game? Just went through PbP and it confirmed what I saw live: 2 completions more than 10 yards downfield (TD to Harris and 1 other). Leavitt doesn’t get credit for YAC
quote:
in taht case UGA shouldnt' have moved at all since if our starting AA caliber safety had played (which he did not) we likely don't lose.
That’s not how power ratings work. It’s isn’t a poll where you get dinged for losing. It’s a sliding scale of strength. So even being in a close game with Auburn hurts you.
That said, UGA had a bunch of fumbles so probably dropped less as those aren’t considered predictive. LSU is higher in power ratings than rankings because UK hinged on a punt return + 77 yard run + 2 point conversion. None of which really predict future success as well as other stats.
The problem is that too much weight is being given to MOV against bad Clemson/Aggie teams and no adjust to 31 point margin against a team without a QB
With power ratings, you look at the number not the rank. So notre dame lost a close road game against a close team and their rating goes down 2 points. They stay on top because all the other top teams lost worse. Texas is the same thing. My problem is Notre Dame and LSU are overrated from blowing out bad teams.
And the model doesn’t account for injuries, so a 31-0 win against a team with no QB/RB gives LSU the same boost as Ole Miss blowing out a fully healthy Mizzou
A Real power rating has some of the same issues but has LSU/ND 2-3 points weaker
And the model doesn’t account for injuries, so a 31-0 win against a team with no QB/RB gives LSU the same boost as Ole Miss blowing out a fully healthy Mizzou
A Real power rating has some of the same issues but has LSU/ND 2-3 points weaker
LSU and ND about 7 points too high, but more data is improving these
You could swap Mizzou for South Carolina and it would work the same. Both lost to MSU and beat UF.
No Vandy because they haven’t won. No Arky because their only win is Vandy. No Aggie because their only win is Arky :lol:
No Vandy because they haven’t won. No Arky because their only win is Vandy. No Aggie because their only win is Arky :lol:
I assume this isn’t an injury adjusted model? So it doesn’t account for LSU playing a husk of an MSU offense?
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