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CIGAR_cigarillo

All Posts All Topics Pick'em

Favorite team:	Army
Location:	Miami
Biography:
Interests:	Cigars and cigarillos
Occupation:
Number of Posts:	1151
Registered on:	10/20/2024
Online Status:	Not Online

re: Iran bending the knee?

Posted by CIGAR_cigarillo on 9/25/26 at 12:03 pm to UptownJoeBrown

Haha theyre totally beat and in disarray.

Political Talk

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re: My Bets This Weekend

Posted by CIGAR_cigarillo on 9/25/26 at 11:43 am to Ben Rumson

quote:
Looking at all these parlays makes me wonder if there is a way to structure a hedge to where no matter what happens, you can come out on top.

Not really. The math just doesnt work. And too many favorites lose, to be honest. But its like any venture. You can create a hedge where you get yourself better odds. I always, when I can, choose what I call a 'linchpin game'. A game that is a sure win in my mind, a heavy favotie, and pays at least 5 to 1 on (1/5).

You lay that down to cover your other bets, hopefully guaranteeing that you will at least break even. Thats how I always play it. Unfortunately, this week I didnt see one of those. So I pulled back, only bet a grand overall , and did a classic parlay of favorites (the third bet) to hopefully make a lick. I only do those when I can't find a linchpin game, as they seldom pay out. therre is always one favorite that stumbles, it seems.

I'll be happy if I break even this week, as it wasnt a favorable week. Even if I dont hit one of them, I'm still up 4 grand on the year and should have a better choice of games next week.

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re: My Bets This Weekend

Posted by CIGAR_cigarillo on 9/25/26 at 10:10 am to DawgCountry

Okeydoke

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re: Rankings need to be fixed

Posted by CIGAR_cigarillo on 9/25/26 at 10:07 am to cjohn1290

quote:
That -4 doesn't necessarily mean Florida is better than Ole Miss

lol theyre not.

Ole Miss is in another class.

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re: My Bets This Weekend

Posted by CIGAR_cigarillo on 9/25/26 at 9:20 am to BearCrocs

quote:
How old are you?

Between 30 and 60. Why?

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re: My Bets This Weekend

Posted by CIGAR_cigarillo on 9/25/26 at 9:18 am to pankReb

Thsts not a bad bet. at all.

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re: My Bets This Weekend

Posted by CIGAR_cigarillo on 9/25/26 at 8:54 am to CIGAR_cigarillo

Of course most of these I don't expect to win.. But I do expect to win 1 or 2 of them.

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re: My Bets This Weekend

Posted by CIGAR_cigarillo on 9/25/26 at 8:47 am to pankReb

Nah. I expect Texas to win that but I had to put something down to support the boys.

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-1

My Bets This Weekend

Posted by CIGAR_cigarillo on 9/25/26 at 8:35 am

So far on the year I am up over 5000 bucks on my bets. My last two weeks were the best so far, garnering 3500 on week 2 and 2430 on week 3 (I lost a few hundred on week 1). This weekend I'm only putting down 1000, so worst case is I'll still be up 4 grand. Anyway...

My bets for this weekend: (All moneyline)

200 bucks
UT over Texas (pays 2.47 to 1)

100 bucks (parlay - pays 10.87 to 1)
Wake Forest over Louisville
UT over Texas

100 bucks (parlay - pays 4.53 to 1)
Houston over Georgia Southern
Auburn over Vandy
Alabama over USC
LSU over TexAM
MSU over Mizzou
UGA over OKL
GTech over Stanford

100 bucks (pays 7.4 to 1)
NW over Indiana

100 bucks (parlay - pays 102 to 1)
NW over Indiana
Wake over Louisville
W. Michigan over Boise

100 bucks (parlay - pays 8.54 to 1)
Clemson over Cal
Ole Miss over UF
MSU over Mizzou
Gtech over Stanford

100 bucks (parlay - pays 13.8 to 1)
Wake Forest over Louisville
W. Michigan over Boise

100 bucks (parlay - pays 4.1 to 1)
Clemson over Cal
Ole Miss over UF

100 bucks
Purdue over Notre Dame (pays 9.4 to 1)

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-6

re: Gator fans get ready for the weekend?

Posted by CIGAR_cigarillo on 9/25/26 at 8:16 am to Victor R Franko

Florida fans better enjoy the last 24 hours of having some little bit of respect back.

Because come tomorrow night they will be back to being the joke they've been for the last 15 years. A bunch of irrelevant swamp turds like in that video :lol:

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