Started By
Message
Saw an interesting post on Reddit that shows lack of parity in today’s CFB is overblown
Posted on 2/7/21 at 10:47 am
Posted on 2/7/21 at 10:47 am
During the BCS era, there were 26 different programs that finished ranked in the top 4 in the final regular season polls. That’s basically 1.625 different teams a year.
During the CFB playoff era, there have been 11 teams that have made the Playoff. That’s 1.57 different teams a year. Pretty much a negligible difference between the BCS and CFB Playoff eras. Well, what about recruiting?
From 2001-2013, the top 10 programs signed 45.9% of four and five star recruits. From 2014-2020, the top 10 programs signed 44.2% of four and five star recruits. Top 10 programs actually signed a higher share of top recruits during the BCS era than the CFB Playoff era. Okay, what about the top 4 programs? Everybody has been complaining that Bama, Clemson, Ohio State is monopolizing all the talent.
Again, not much of a difference. The top four teams in the recruiting rankings have signed a similar share of four and five star recruits today than they were doing the BCS era.
Essentially, the only difference in CFB today compared to years past has been the rise of Clemson. We have two superpowers in CFB today while in years past, it was always one (2000-2002 Miami, Pete Carroll’s USC, Urban Meyer’s Florida teams, 2009-2012 Bama, etc...). So that has caused a perception in less parity than years past even though that hasn’t been the case.
LINK
20
Posted on 2/7/21 at 10:50 am to Bench McElroy
So it is usually a few teams that dominate in an era. Just different teams in different eras.
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:02 am to viceman
The issue isn't that it's only a handful of teams, that has always been the case forever with different teams rotating in and out.
The main issue nowadays, to me anyway, is that the top 1 or 2 teams are SO above the rest that a team ranked even like 8th or 9th has zero chance at winning which hasn't always been the case. Even in the 90s with a florida, tennessee, fsu, etc they might slip up to an inferior team now and then. Compare that to present day alabama. You think there's any chance in absolute frick that a cincinnati or a wisconsin is gonna stay within 30?
It's not that there isn't parity, it's that the gap between #1 and everyone else outside the top 5 has never been larger
The main issue nowadays, to me anyway, is that the top 1 or 2 teams are SO above the rest that a team ranked even like 8th or 9th has zero chance at winning which hasn't always been the case. Even in the 90s with a florida, tennessee, fsu, etc they might slip up to an inferior team now and then. Compare that to present day alabama. You think there's any chance in absolute frick that a cincinnati or a wisconsin is gonna stay within 30?
It's not that there isn't parity, it's that the gap between #1 and everyone else outside the top 5 has never been larger
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:05 am to ThereGoesHerschel
quote:
It's not that there isn't parity, it's that the gap between #1 and everyone else outside the top 5 has never been larger
The author has a solution for that
"How to address Alabama's dominance
Nick Saban is 69, so we are better off waiting for him to retire. We have to hope the next coach is simply "good, not great" and Alabama falls off a bit from their historic highs. This would probably provide a huge opening for Georgia to be the conference's new power, given how great their recruiting is."
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:05 am to ThereGoesHerschel
quote:
It's not that there isn't parity, it's that the gap between #1 and everyone else outside the top 5 has never been larger
Are you conceding that Georgia is one of those on the outside?
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:13 am to Bench McElroy
The CFB subreddit is full of a bunch of pussies, they banned me many moons ago
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:14 am to Bench McElroy
Looking at the graphics in the OP, I note that since 2005 there are only four teams that have had more than 3 appearances in the top 4:
Alabama (11 times)
Ohio State (7)
Clemson (6)
Oklahoma (6)
In the first year of the CFP era two of these 4 teams made the field. In every season since it’s been 3/4.
Who are the consensus CFP contenders for 2021? One guess.
Alabama (11 times)
Ohio State (7)
Clemson (6)
Oklahoma (6)
In the first year of the CFP era two of these 4 teams made the field. In every season since it’s been 3/4.
Who are the consensus CFP contenders for 2021? One guess.
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:17 am to FearlessFreep
quote:
Looking at the graphics in the OP, I note that since 2005 there are only four teams that have had more than 3 appearances in the top 4:
Alabama (11 times)
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:23 am to bamameister
quote:
Are you conceding that Georgia is one of those on the outside?
Are you suggesting that UGA isn't a top 5 program?
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:25 am to Bench McElroy
I was doing some stats on another board and came to the conclusion that really the biggest difference came at the start of the BCS era and the difference is split national champions being far more common before the BCS era. Split champions allowed for more people to feel like they were the best team and created some year to year variety even if the names often were familiar.
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:27 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
The top four teams in the recruiting rankings have signed a similar share of four and five star recruits today than they were doing the BCS era.
I mean, I just don't trust this number. I have seen multiple Florida recruiting classes in the last 3 years that have landed in the 9-10 range with a score that averaged around 5-6 in prior years. I have to assume that Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, etc are seeing something similar,and I can't think of any other reason this would apply so heavily other than consolidation at the top. Maybe it's the top 2 or 3 instead of the top 4, but something is skewing the numbers there for sure.
We've also never seen anything like the consistent lack of fluctuation in top recruiting classes. Even when USC was dominant and could basically pick whoever they wanted in the Rivals 100 - teams 2-5 rotated heavily on new coach bump classes, large senior classes graduating, etc. That never happens anymore. Saban signs 27 every year. Prior to '21, UGA signed 25 every year. OSU and Clemson sign 22+ every year.
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:28 am to Bench McElroy
Not sure about your math there? How is 26 different teams in the BCS era, which was a longer timeframe I acknowledge, only a negligible difference as compared to 11? There is absolutely nothing to suggest over the next 2-3 years that any team outside of OSU, Oklahoma, ND, UA, UGA, Clemson, or LSU will make the playoff. The playoff format would have to average nearly two new teams in the playoff each year to match the BCS which is nearly impossible. I am not sure you understand the word “negligible” but a 15 team difference is significant
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:29 am to Bench McElroy
We are moving towards a reducing in scholarships and conference championship requirements for playoff entry. Can't wait for the Gump melt.
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:30 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Are you suggesting that UGA isn't a top 5 program?
You didn't put them there, why should I? You just started crying about there being 2 teams, head and shoulders above the rest.
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:34 am to AUCE05
quote:
We are moving towards a reducing in scholarships and conference championship requirements for playoff entry. Can't wait for the Gump melt.
I think it's funny that you think Saban won't just take a year to figure it out and then beat your arse at that too.
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:35 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Are you suggesting that UGA isn't a top 5 program?
Definitely on the fringe. If we’re going by postseason appearances and championships, they’d be just outside the top 5.
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:36 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
Essentially, the only difference in CFB today compared to years past has been
Coach Nick Motherfrickin Saban
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:37 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
in the top 4 in the final regular season polls. That’s basically 1.625 different teams a year.
Regular season? Why cherry pick? Why not the final poll?
quote:
The top four teams in the recruiting rankings have signed a similar share of four and five star recruits today than they were doing the BCS era.
I'd love to see a similar number for the percentage of 4 and 5 stars signed by Bama compared to the other 4 teams from '10 to '20.
Bet you'd see a big disparity and Ohio State was probably the only other team that finished in the top four signing 4 and 5 stars other thank Bama who obviously finished in the top 4 every year from '10 to '20.
This post was edited on 2/7/21 at 11:54 am
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:37 am to ThereGoesHerschel
quote:
t's not that there isn't parity, it's that the gap between #1 and everyone else outside the top 5 has never been larger
This is ignoring the fact that 2020 Alabama had one score games well into the 4th quarter with Ole Miss and Florida and trailed UGA in the 3rd. Auburn has won several close games as underdogs in recent years. They’re not unbeatable on any given week In SEC Conference play. What’s been so impressive in the Saban era is how rare they flinch against those teams and how physically dominant they’ve been in playoff games
Posted on 2/7/21 at 11:41 am to Bench McElroy
Let that Clemson trajectory be a cautionary tale about what happens when pitching "Family" turns to outright nepotism.
Page 1 of 5
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News