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Which scenario gets the most SEC teams in?
Posted on 11/18/25 at 9:39 am
Posted on 11/18/25 at 9:39 am
I think most scenarios, presuming favored teams win their games, have 4-5 teams in the playoffs:
Texas A&M
Georgia
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Alabama
Current playoff ranking PROJECTIONS have an interesting scenario, where Alabama and Oklahoma would play each other in the first round and the winner plays Ohio State.
I think, if that were to hold (still plenty of football left to be played), that the playoff committee would work to avoid a first round rematch - probably by swapping Alabama and Notre Dame, to get Oklahoma a game against the Fighting Irish while Alabama then likely plays Oregon. I'm not sure who is getting the "better" matchup between those scenarios.
Is there a scenario where a 6th team (probably Vandy) gets in? Texas' loss seems to make a 6th team from the SEC highly unlikely (it was already going to be a tough sell), but Vandy was 14th prior last weekend.
Texas A&M
Georgia
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Alabama
Current playoff ranking PROJECTIONS have an interesting scenario, where Alabama and Oklahoma would play each other in the first round and the winner plays Ohio State.
I think, if that were to hold (still plenty of football left to be played), that the playoff committee would work to avoid a first round rematch - probably by swapping Alabama and Notre Dame, to get Oklahoma a game against the Fighting Irish while Alabama then likely plays Oregon. I'm not sure who is getting the "better" matchup between those scenarios.
Is there a scenario where a 6th team (probably Vandy) gets in? Texas' loss seems to make a 6th team from the SEC highly unlikely (it was already going to be a tough sell), but Vandy was 14th prior last weekend.
10
Posted on 11/18/25 at 9:39 am to skrayper
Everyone wins out until A&M loses in the SEC title game
This post was edited on 11/18/25 at 9:40 am
Posted on 11/18/25 at 9:41 am to Henry Jones Jr
or wins that game
Posted on 11/18/25 at 9:43 am to Old Sarge
quote:
or wins that game
A&M winning or losing the SECCG still has them in the playoffs, but I do believe it would impact seeding.
By how much, I have no idea.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 9:44 am to skrayper
10-2 Vandy with a win in Rocky Top against a ranked UT would be hard to leave out
Posted on 11/18/25 at 10:01 am to skrayper
If Vandy wins out and OKlahoma loses one game, then Vandy is the 5th team.
the number of SEC teams in probably depends on what some of the non- SEC teams do in their last 2 games. there are 3-4 of them that could drop down making room for at least 5. Maybe 6 if it falls right.
the number of SEC teams in probably depends on what some of the non- SEC teams do in their last 2 games. there are 3-4 of them that could drop down making room for at least 5. Maybe 6 if it falls right.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 10:18 am to skrayper
It's less about the SEC and more about the other teams. Some upsets would be really helpful to knock out teams and make sure the ACC and Big 12 are 1 bid teams for instance, the B1G still has up to 5 teams in contention with OSU, Indiana, Michigan, USC, and Oregon and need that to be no more than 3 and even better find a way for it to be 2. ND stubbing its toe in a big upset would be helpful.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 10:19 am to skrayper
quote:
Which scenario gets the most SEC teams in?
What does this have to do with Lane Kiffin and tracking flights?
Posted on 11/18/25 at 10:23 am to aggressor
I think OU is in good shape with the amount of wins vs ranked teams tied for most in country ..: outside chance OU will still get in if they lose . We would would probably be compared to Vandy who has not many ranked wins now. How they compare 2 losses to 3
Is unknown . I don’t like it when they say schedules matter but rarely put teams with more losses in front of teams with less losses no matter how many ranked teams they beat . Best way to go to playoffs is to join the big ten and schedule no one ooc and hope that year you only have to face Indiana or Ohio state in the champ game .
Is unknown . I don’t like it when they say schedules matter but rarely put teams with more losses in front of teams with less losses no matter how many ranked teams they beat . Best way to go to playoffs is to join the big ten and schedule no one ooc and hope that year you only have to face Indiana or Ohio state in the champ game .
Posted on 11/18/25 at 10:49 am to skrayper
A scenario where the Gators aren't terrible, Texas is actually back and the Vols aren't living in '98.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 10:53 am to Soonerd78
quote:
I think OU is in good shape with the amount of wins vs ranked teams tied for most in country ..: outside chance OU will still get in if they lose . We would would probably be compared to Vandy who has not many ranked wins now. How they compare 2 losses to 3
Is unknown . I don’t like it when they say schedules matter but rarely put teams with more losses in front of teams with less losses no matter how many ranked teams they beat . Best way to go to playoffs is to join the big ten and schedule no one ooc and hope that year you only have to face Indiana or Ohio state in the champ game .
OU needs to be very careful to just pencil in a W this week with Mizzou. Mizzou is a good team and Hardy is a beast. A&M is the only team that really dominated them and they just stomped a mudhole in State last week. I think it is crazy that OU is a 9.5 point favorite. Very dangerous game coming off the big high of beating Bama.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 11:28 am to aggressor
quote:
It's less about the SEC and more about the other teams.
^^^THIS^^^
Barring a complete collapse, A&M, GA and OM should be locks. AL probably needs to win the SECCG for the SEC to get a 4th unless the favorites win out in all the other leagues.
For example,
If GA Tech beats GA but loses to VA in the ACCCG, ACC gets 2 teams instead of 1.
If BYU beats Tech in the B12CG, B12 gets 2, assuming no losses before then.
If Michigan beats OH State the B1G probably gets 4.
With only 10 spots to split between 4 leagues, the math is going to leave some deserving teams out.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 12:04 pm to skrayper
Probably ATM losing to Texas, Alabama beating UGA in the SECCG and Notre Dame somehow losing another game. That puts ATM, Bama and UGA in with Ole Miss and Oklahoma and possibly even Texas. If Bama and ATM win out I don't know that the winner of the SECG changes the fact that UGA, ATM and Bama are in, in some order, and possibly Ole Miss. Three is about as many as is assured and that may be one too many..
Posted on 11/18/25 at 5:06 pm to Doak Walker
quote:
quote:
It's less about the SEC and more about the other teams.
^^^THIS^^^
Barring a complete collapse, A&M, GA and OM should be locks. AL probably needs to win the SECCG for the SEC to get a 4th unless the favorites win out in all the other leagues.
For example,
If GA Tech beats GA but loses to VA in the ACCCG, ACC gets 2 teams instead of 1.
If BYU beats Tech in the B12CG, B12 gets 2, assuming no losses before then.
If Michigan beats OH State the B1G probably gets 4.
With only 10 spots to split between 4 leagues, the math is going to leave some deserving teams out.
Lots of scenarios that are bad for the SEC or could end up being a boon. Another is if USC beats Oregon in a close game. That makes them both 10-2. B1G has 5 teams still in play with Michigan. Best case is Oregon beats USC, OSU beats Michigan, Oregon loses to UW. Then B1G gets 2.
Utah is another one to watch out for as is Miami, they are hanging around the borderline of getting in and they should win out.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 5:14 pm to skrayper
If TT loses the big 12 game or GT upsets GA then loses the ACCCG you can forget about the SEC getting more than 4 bids.
This post was edited on 11/18/25 at 5:16 pm
Posted on 11/18/25 at 5:21 pm to Soonerd78
quote:
How they compare 2 losses to 3 Is unknown
Look, I think it's ridiculous how big conferences are and how different teams play very different schedules in the same conference.
But, if there are two teams from the same conference and one has two losses and one has three losses, then there is no world where the team with three losses should get in unless the team with two losses lost to a Sun Belt, MAC, CUSA, or FCS team.
And this is especially the case given there is no H2H to compare.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 6:00 pm to skrayper
BlowU shitting the bed at home vs missery would help keep our hopes alive, as would anyone above us in the rankings having a bad day.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 6:15 pm to aggressor
quote:
A&M is the only team that really dominated them
Hardy still had over 100+ yards against a&m and OU has a top run defense. His lowest yards yet were against Alabama.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 6:21 pm to skrayper
I am not sure Alabama is in if they do not win the SECCG. I do not care what the committee says but the projections currently do not include an ACC nor a G6 team.
Ole Miss, UGA, and OU win out they should be in. OU beat UA so I do not see us jumping them with a 3rd loss. ND for whatever reason gets a mulligan. If TT drops to BYU or Utah in the B12 I could see the B12 getting 2 in.
If UA were to drop in the SECCG I could the SEC with 4, B10 3, B12 2, ACC 1, G6 1, and ND.
UGA is in a great position not playing in the CG should secure them a bye first round.
Ole Miss, UGA, and OU win out they should be in. OU beat UA so I do not see us jumping them with a 3rd loss. ND for whatever reason gets a mulligan. If TT drops to BYU or Utah in the B12 I could see the B12 getting 2 in.
If UA were to drop in the SECCG I could the SEC with 4, B10 3, B12 2, ACC 1, G6 1, and ND.
UGA is in a great position not playing in the CG should secure them a bye first round.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 6:31 pm to TideWarrior
quote:
Hardy still had over 100+ yards against a&m and OU has a top run defense. His lowest yards yet were against Alabama.
True but on 2 plays really. A&M defense is actually good in general but give up way too many big plays.
Even against South Carolina - a couple 50+ yard TD throws and that was it really
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