Started By
Message
re: Iron Bowls involving two ranked teams
Posted on 11/24/20 at 11:22 am to paperwasp
Posted on 11/24/20 at 11:22 am to paperwasp
quote:
Just a thought exercise: Auburn is currently ranked #22 in the AP poll.
In a normal year, would Auburn be ranked at this point in the season?
I suspect they would be. This was what Auburn's 2020 schedule was SUPPOSED to look like, Pre-Covid.
Alcorn State- WIN
N. Carolina- WIN
at Ole Miss- WIN
Southern Miss- WIN
Kentucky- WIN
at Georgia- LOSS
Texas A&M- LOSS
at Miss St.- WIN
Arkansas- WIN
UMass- WIN
LSU- WIN
I would project that they'd be 9-2 going into the Iron Bowl.... and to be quite honest, they'd probably be ranked way higher than #22 with a 9-2 record.
If anything, the COVID scheduling shuffles have hurt the major conference teams in terms of rankings because all of these mid-majors have gotten easy schedules and are being treated like they are legit unbeaten teams despite the fact they've played no one.
Current AP ranking:
#7 Cincinnati
#8 BYU
#16 Coastal Carolina
#17 Marshall
#23 Louisiana
#24 Tulsa
Does anyone actually think that all six of these are among the true Top 24 teams in the country?
BYU was supposed to play Michigan State, Minnesota, Missouri, Stanford, Utah, and Arizona State this year..... instead they played none of those teams resulting in a much easier schedule.
Coastal Carolina got a lot of early credit for beating Kansas by 15 points in their season opener. Kansas is now 0-7 and their six other losses have come by 21, 33, 39, 40, 41, and 53 points, respectively.
0
Posted on 11/24/20 at 11:24 am to CapstoneGrad06
quote:
That still doesn’t explain why the records don’t add up to equal one another in the breakdowns.
If you would read the text, it most certainly woudld.
The first two show AUBURN 7-0 and 4-1, the final one shows ALABAMA 2-1. You are taking Alabama's 2 wins in Bryant-Denny and giving them to Auburn which is why its not adding up correctly in your mind.
Posted on 11/24/20 at 11:27 am to BHMKyle
The 2018 Iron Bowl was very close at the half but became a blowout by the end.
Posted on 11/24/20 at 11:31 am to elit4ce05
quote:
If only past games had any bearing on games played today.....
History often repeats itself. These same stats were posted in 2017 and 2019 and no one thought #1/#2 Alabama would lose those games, yet here we are with Auburn now winning 2 of the last 3 Iron Bowls.
My entire point is that on paper, Auburn has no chance. That's why I suspect Bama will win. But history far too often has a habit of repeating itself even when it looks very unlikely.
Posted on 11/24/20 at 11:34 am to BHMKyle
I had already stated that it made sense after your subsequent posts. Literally two posts below your quoted post. If you’d read the text.
This post was edited on 11/24/20 at 11:36 am
Posted on 11/24/20 at 11:43 am to BHMKyle
This is one game I want to see more than the LSU-Bama game this year. Strange things happen at the Iron Bowl ...
Posted on 11/24/20 at 11:49 am to AA7
I don’t know our LBs love some eye candy. If Kentucky had not quit doing what they were successful at they’d have run for 300 yards and missed 10 more FGs. Auburn is typically a thorn in Bamas side. They play better than they are and they have been getting better as the season goes on. Bamas defense appears improved but that’s against TN, GA, KY and MSST. I don’t know how good they really are.
Posted on 11/24/20 at 11:54 am to BHMKyle
How many times has either team wrecked the other team’s national championship hopes?
Not an Auburn fan, but I’m more familiar with their upset wins.
1972
1989
2013
2019
Not an Auburn fan, but I’m more familiar with their upset wins.
1972
1989
2013
2019
Posted on 11/24/20 at 11:59 am to AA7
Yeah this would be a true upset
Other than 2002 I can't think of another Iron Bowl we've won where you couldn't get a good read on AU's chances from AU fans.
Plenty of us thought we'd have a good shot last year, definitely in 2013, etc.
I won't say us winning Saturday would be a "WTF" thing but it'd be pretty close.
Other than 2002 I can't think of another Iron Bowl we've won where you couldn't get a good read on AU's chances from AU fans.
Plenty of us thought we'd have a good shot last year, definitely in 2013, etc.
I won't say us winning Saturday would be a "WTF" thing but it'd be pretty close.
Posted on 11/24/20 at 12:01 pm to UndercoverBryologist
Not to troll, but Auburn hasn't had all that many "national championship hope" teams outside of the last 20 years. The 1994 Auburn team was 9-0-1 and on a 21 game unbeaten streak when Alabama beat them (Alabama was 10-0 at the time, though, so not really an upset).
The biggest upset wins for Alabama have been
- 1984 (wrong way Bo)
- 2001 (Fran's first Iron Bowl)
There aren't a whole lot of instances where Alabama is good but not great and Auburn is really good. 2005 is probably an example. 1995.
The biggest upset wins for Alabama have been
- 1984 (wrong way Bo)
- 2001 (Fran's first Iron Bowl)
There aren't a whole lot of instances where Alabama is good but not great and Auburn is really good. 2005 is probably an example. 1995.
This post was edited on 11/24/20 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 11/24/20 at 12:05 pm to Pettifogger
This game feels a lot like 2016 to me. Good Auburn team, but not a great one. Really good Alabama team playing a pretty high level entering the game. Game in Tuscaloosa. As Petti said, both sides generally have a pretty good feel for the game beforehand (the non-crazy homers). 2013 I was certainly nervous. 2017 I was extremely nervous. Last year I had no clue, but I definitely didn't see it as an auto-win.
I feel like we'd have to turn the ball over like last year and play worse defense than we have all year (Ole Miss not included because Ole Miss and Auburn aren't really comparable offensively) to lose. It's possible, but we'd have to completely lose our minds.
We sometimes completely lose our minds against Auburn, but it almost always happens at Jordan Hare. Rarely if ever in Tuscaloosa.
I feel like we'd have to turn the ball over like last year and play worse defense than we have all year (Ole Miss not included because Ole Miss and Auburn aren't really comparable offensively) to lose. It's possible, but we'd have to completely lose our minds.
We sometimes completely lose our minds against Auburn, but it almost always happens at Jordan Hare. Rarely if ever in Tuscaloosa.
This post was edited on 11/24/20 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 11/24/20 at 12:06 pm to labamafan
quote:
I don’t know our LBs love some eye candy. If Kentucky had not quit doing what they were successful at they’d have run for 300 yards and missed 10 more FGs. Auburn is typically a thorn in Bamas side. They play better than they are and they have been getting better as the season goes on. Bamas defense appears improved but that’s against TN, GA, KY and MSST. I don’t know how good they really are.
You don't understand that the reason those things quit working is not because the other team just quits doing it, but rather because the defense adjusts and the players settle in?
Posted on 11/24/20 at 12:07 pm to BHMKyle
Just out of curiosity, I wanted to see if there was a trend for presidential election years. I went back to 1960 just to see
Year - Winner - Election Winner
1960 - Alabama - Democrat
1964 - Alabama - Democrat
1968 - Alabama - Republican
1972 - Auburn - Republican
1976 - Alabama - Democrat
1980 - Alabama - Republican
1984 - Alabama - Republican
1988 - Auburn - Republican
1992 - Alabama - Democrat
1996 - Alabama - Democrat
2000 - Auburn - Republican
2004 - Auburn - Republican
2008 - Alabama - Democrat
2012 - Alabama - Democrat
2016 - Alabama - Republican
(I fully acknowledge there’s no logical causal relationship. I just did this to satiate my curiosity over any possible trends.)
Year - Winner - Election Winner
1960 - Alabama - Democrat
1964 - Alabama - Democrat
1968 - Alabama - Republican
1972 - Auburn - Republican
1976 - Alabama - Democrat
1980 - Alabama - Republican
1984 - Alabama - Republican
1988 - Auburn - Republican
1992 - Alabama - Democrat
1996 - Alabama - Democrat
2000 - Auburn - Republican
2004 - Auburn - Republican
2008 - Alabama - Democrat
2012 - Alabama - Democrat
2016 - Alabama - Republican
(I fully acknowledge there’s no logical causal relationship. I just did this to satiate my curiosity over any possible trends.)
This post was edited on 11/24/20 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 11/24/20 at 12:09 pm to 3down10
quote:
You don't understand that the reason those things quit working is not because the other team just quits doing it, but rather because the defense adjusts and the players settle in?
Per game analysis from people I trust we were almost over-excited at the motion Kentucky was doing. As in, we knew what it was, and our guys were almost too eager to do the things they needed to do to counteract it. It took us a couple of possessions but we settled down, stopped it for a drive or two and then Kentucky abandoned it.
I have no doubt Auburn will eye candy us into big plays some, but I think Nix is going to have to make tough throws consistently for them to score enough to stick around. Their offense requires 7-10 play drives, and while we have flaws we are generally pretty good at making teams do just that and eventually stall out or settle for a kick.
This post was edited on 11/24/20 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 11/24/20 at 12:19 pm to ColoradoAg
quote:But typically not in Tuscaloosa.
Strange things happen at the Iron Bowl
Outside of 2010 (still not sure how that Ingram fumble stayed in bounds until it got to the end zone), there aren't many strange things I can remember happening in Bryant-Denny. The magic appears either in Auburn or appeared in Birmingham.
Posted on 11/24/20 at 12:21 pm to BHMKyle
AU doesn't have the horses to get it done. It will only be close if Saban decides that he wants Gus to stay around for a while.
Posted on 11/24/20 at 12:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Rarely if ever in Tuscaloosa
2010 and Cam say hello
Posted on 11/24/20 at 12:34 pm to schatman
quote:
AU doesn't have the horses to get it done. It will only be close if Saban decides that he wants Gus to stay around for a while.
why would saban want that? He is one game over .500 against Gus.
Posted on 11/24/20 at 12:36 pm to all4AU
quote:
2010 and Cam say hello
And that has zero to do with Gus being 0-3 as a head coach in Tuscaloosa. With all three being double digit losses.
Posted on 11/24/20 at 12:39 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
There aren't a whole lot of instances where Alabama is good but not great and Auburn is really good.
Yeah this is true. I mean 2010 is one of the few times I remember Auburn having a great team and Alabama was clearly going into the Iron Bowl with a worse resume.... but even still that was a good Bama team that might have even been favored to win the game. I don't remember though.
Just looking at the history...
Auburn has come into the Iron Bowl ranked in the Top 10 on 13 different occasions.
**In 7 of those games, Bama was still ranked higher (1963, 1971, 1972, 1974, 1994, 2013, 2017)... Auburn is 4-3 in those games.
**In 6 of those games, Bama was ranked between 5 and 16 spots lower (1960, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1993, 2010)... Auburn is 5-1 in those games
1983 would stick out as probably the best Auburn team against a good, but not nearly as good Alabama team. Auburn was #3 and Bama was ranked #19.
Page 2 of 5
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News