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re: Clemson's likelihood of winning each game ahead

Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:23 am to
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
54676 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:23 am to
quote:

So what you're saying is the two toughest games on their schedule are a decent SEC team and a crap SEC team.


Posted by Jyrdis
TD Premium Member Level III
Member since Aug 2015
12794 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:24 am to
quote:

In this scenario I would just accept fate and if they don't feel the the national champ for 2 of the last three years deserves a seat at the dance


Who cares what they deserve? It'd be virtually impossible to tell if they are one of the four best teams due to the fact that they beat up crap teams.
Posted by cocky4ever
Member since Jun 2016
38 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:25 am to
quote:

Thinking ahead, here is the risk you run. TAMU finishes the year with 4 or 5 losses, barely in the top 25 or maybe out all together giving Clemson ZERO wins versus top 25 opponents. Ohio States goes undefeated. They are in. Oklahoma goes undefeated. They are in. The SEC champ goes undefeated. They are in. Utah goes undefeated beating ranked USC, Oregon, Wash St in the process. Are they in?? Based on "quality of work" Clemson shouldn't be in. The Committee might make that case. Again way too early. But a scenario like this could happen.


If the reigning national champ goes 13-0 they are in no matter what, as it should be.
Posted by CU_Tigers4life
Georgia
Member since Aug 2013
7505 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:27 am to
One other thing: You are focusing on the current top 25 and not the CFP Poll. The AP and Coaches poll are now just a device to draw attention to football TV games. Texas and Texas A&M are not as good at their rankings but it wouldn't be as good of a draw if they were in the 15-25 range...
Posted by cocky4ever
Member since Jun 2016
38 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:31 am to
ITT- people are honestly saying there’s a scenario where the reigning national champ could go into selection Sunday with a record of 28-0 in less than 2 full seasons but should be left out of the playoffs. I mean... I hate clemson more than most here probably but there’s a point where you have to rely on common sense over emotion.
Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
19698 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:31 am to
quote:

Their schedule looked ugly in the Preseason
huh?
Posted by IStillMissDanny
S TX
Member since Aug 2016
2151 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:31 am to
quote:

Oh really? I guess they are flabbergasted right now that Charlotte and Wofford aren't elite opponents.

And let's get real about Texas A&M... especially considering this series was booked way before Jimbo Fisher was hired... The Aggies have exactly one Top 15 finish in the last two decades of football.



You're right.
Clemson should penalize itself and schedule 4 P5 teams to make up for the SEC teams having a tougher schedule.
That's only fair.

Quit the SEC if all you want to do is complain about how tough it is. AAC would love to have you.
Posted by UncleFestersLegs
Member since Nov 2010
10822 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:35 am to
quote:

So what you're saying is the two toughest games on their schedule are a decent SEC team and a crap SEC team.
Well they do play UNC who beat the crap SEC team week 1.
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58063 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:38 am to
quote:


I hate to be that guy, but a team can’t decide how shitty their opponents are going to be. It’s no secret that the ACC sucks but pointing out the obvious (their schedule being shitty) is kind of moot.



So... UCF to the playoffs then???
Posted by koreandawg
South Korea
Member since Sep 2015
9007 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:41 am to
quote:


Well they do play UNC who beat the crap SEC team week 1.


That was with Bentley QBing.
Posted by CU_Tigers4life
Georgia
Member since Aug 2013
7505 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:42 am to
quote:

You're right.
Clemson should penalize itself and schedule 4 P5 teams to make up for the SEC teams having a tougher schedule.
That's only fair.

Quit the SEC if all you want to do is complain about how tough it is. AAC would love to have you.


Sometimes it's not that easy. Even Nick Saban was just saying how it's not as easy as it sounds to schedule quality non-conference games. Not every school wants to be blown out 63-10. Bama had to pay NM State 1.7 million guaranteed to come and take that beating...Then you have schools like UCF that won't do a 2 for 1 to earn the right to play with the big boys as they turned down UF...We actually have 2 ACC schools playing each other this year as non-conference games. Maybe that's an avenue to look more into
Posted by koreandawg
South Korea
Member since Sep 2015
9007 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:43 am to

quote:

You are focusing on the current top 25 and not the CFP Poll. The AP and Coaches poll are now just a device to draw attention to football TV games. Texas and Texas A&M are not as good at their rankings but it wouldn't be as good of a draw if they were in the 15-25 range...


I suppose Maryland is top five and Syracuse top 20 then.
Posted by BrerTiger
Valley of the Long Grey Cloud
Member since Sep 2011
21506 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:44 am to
quote:


I hate to be that guy, but a team can’t decide how shitty their opponents are going to be. It’s no secret that the ACC sucks but pointing out the obvious (their schedule being shitty) is kind of moot.


I second this opinion.

They can't control the ACC and they do have Aggy and Carolina on the schedule.
This post was edited on 9/9/19 at 9:45 am
Posted by CU_Tigers4life
Georgia
Member since Aug 2013
7505 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:46 am to
I never thought Syracuse was a top 25 team. When they lost Dungy to graduation last year they lost a lot. That kid was a baller. Maryland looked good. It's a team worth wathcing
Posted by Canyon16
Muscle Shoals
Member since Nov 2017
3688 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:47 am to
The downfall is if they sleep walk on 1 these upcoming cupcake Saturdays & lose they may get penalized like recent Ohio State teams. Of course Buckeyes getting trounced in bad losses made it worse.
Posted by armtackledawg
Member since Aug 2017
11933 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:49 am to
In fairness, those percentages are so high partly because Clemson is a flat out great team. They did not even play that well and handled A&M without problem.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30875 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:57 am to
quote:

I hate to be that guy, but a team can’t decide how shitty their opponents are going to be. It’s no secret that the ACC sucks but pointing out the obvious (their schedule being shitty) is kind of moot.


As a Bama fan who takes shite every time someone mentions Duke (not Alabama's decision but the ACC's) and Tennessee (I swear there was a time they were really good guys, seriously)... I honestly don't care.

Save for A&M, there's not much difference between Clemson's schedule and UCF's.
Posted by ChunkyLover54
Member since Apr 2015
6529 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:59 am to
It's over
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30875 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:07 am to
quote:

In fairness, those percentages are so high partly because Clemson is a flat out great team. They did not even play that well and handled A&M without problem.


Based on common opponents, Alabama is pretty much on the same % as Clemson.

They have LSU (70.4%), Auburn (77.8%), and MSU (83.1%) all tougher than Clemson's "toughest" remaining game. (Plus Texas A&M, but Clemson also played A&M already so leaving them off).

So Alabama (comparable FPI) plays the two toughest teams on South Carolina's schedule (Texas A&M and South Carolina), one school that's a much harder out (LSU), one school on par with A&M (Auburn) and one school a decent bit tougher than South Carolina (MSU) as well as South Carolina themselves.

That's just Alabama. Should we go into other Playoff hopefuls?

Ohio State - 7 games tougher
LSU - 5 games tougher
Oklahoma - 5 games tougher
Georgia - 5 games tougher

(None of those include conference championship games - which will easily include anyone tougher than whatever sad sack the ACC Costal can throw at them).
Posted by cyclingout
God's country, SC
Member since Apr 2019
2238 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:11 am to
That Scar percentage should be way higher
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