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5/22 Tournament Outlook
Posted on 5/22/26 at 10:59 am
Posted on 5/22/26 at 10:59 am
Here’s how I see it as if this morning:
National Seed Locks (6): UCLA, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, Auburn
I think these teams are locked into the Top 8. Order could change a bit and I think TX, UNC, and/or AU could fall back to #7 or #8… but all should be National Seeds nonetheless.
National Seed Potential (5): Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Texas A&M, Southern Miss
I think two of these 5 will lock up the final two national seeds. Bama still has the upper hand, IMO, but the others are all still playing so they can certainly jump ahead.
Host Locks (3): Nebraska, Miss St., West Virginia
All of these are out of the National Seed picture but they’ve locked a host spot.
Host Potential (5): Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Kansas, Arkansas
Two of these teams will host a regional. It would take a lot for Arkansas to jump up to the top of those group, but winning the SEC Tourney might do it.
My Updated Projections as of this morning:
1. UCLA hosting 32. UC Santa Barbara
2. Georgia Tech hosting 31. Missouri St.
3. Georgia hosting 30. Jax St.
4. Texas hosting 29. UCF
5. N. Carolina hosting 28. Coastal Carolina
6. Auburn hosting 27. Virginia
7. Alabama hosting 26. Cincinnati
8. Florida hosting 25. Miami
9. Florida St. hosting 24. Oklahoma St.
10. Texas A&M hosting 23. Wake Forest
11. Southern Miss hosting 22. Oklahoma
12. Nebraska hosting 21. Tennessee
13. Miss St hosting 20. Kansas
14. W. Virginia hosting 19. Ole Miss
15. Oregon hosting 18. Arkansas
16. Oregon St. hosting 17. USC
I think the SEC spots are nearly locked in now… they could plug different SEC teams into those spots based on remaining games.
Georgia and Texas will be the top 2 SEC teams. The only way Texas can jump them now is for Georgia to lose to Florida and for the Longhorns to make the Championship Game at least. UGA is one win away from locking up the #3 spot. Auburn might could pass Texas if they won the SEC but can’t pass Georgia IMO. Chances are still unlikely though.
Auburn, Alabama, Florida, and A&M should be the next four teams. Florida and A&M can’t jump Auburn though. If AU loses tonight, Bama probably moves back ahead of them.
Texas A&M can pass Florida if they beat Auburn and UF loses to Georgia. Would probably need to win at least 2 more to pass Bama.
Miss St is the #7 SEC team no matter what, IMO.
Arkansas - Ole Miss - Tennessee - Oklahoma should finish in that order for seeding no matter what.
National Seed Locks (6): UCLA, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, Auburn
I think these teams are locked into the Top 8. Order could change a bit and I think TX, UNC, and/or AU could fall back to #7 or #8… but all should be National Seeds nonetheless.
National Seed Potential (5): Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Texas A&M, Southern Miss
I think two of these 5 will lock up the final two national seeds. Bama still has the upper hand, IMO, but the others are all still playing so they can certainly jump ahead.
Host Locks (3): Nebraska, Miss St., West Virginia
All of these are out of the National Seed picture but they’ve locked a host spot.
Host Potential (5): Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Kansas, Arkansas
Two of these teams will host a regional. It would take a lot for Arkansas to jump up to the top of those group, but winning the SEC Tourney might do it.
My Updated Projections as of this morning:
1. UCLA hosting 32. UC Santa Barbara
2. Georgia Tech hosting 31. Missouri St.
3. Georgia hosting 30. Jax St.
4. Texas hosting 29. UCF
5. N. Carolina hosting 28. Coastal Carolina
6. Auburn hosting 27. Virginia
7. Alabama hosting 26. Cincinnati
8. Florida hosting 25. Miami
9. Florida St. hosting 24. Oklahoma St.
10. Texas A&M hosting 23. Wake Forest
11. Southern Miss hosting 22. Oklahoma
12. Nebraska hosting 21. Tennessee
13. Miss St hosting 20. Kansas
14. W. Virginia hosting 19. Ole Miss
15. Oregon hosting 18. Arkansas
16. Oregon St. hosting 17. USC
I think the SEC spots are nearly locked in now… they could plug different SEC teams into those spots based on remaining games.
Georgia and Texas will be the top 2 SEC teams. The only way Texas can jump them now is for Georgia to lose to Florida and for the Longhorns to make the Championship Game at least. UGA is one win away from locking up the #3 spot. Auburn might could pass Texas if they won the SEC but can’t pass Georgia IMO. Chances are still unlikely though.
Auburn, Alabama, Florida, and A&M should be the next four teams. Florida and A&M can’t jump Auburn though. If AU loses tonight, Bama probably moves back ahead of them.
Texas A&M can pass Florida if they beat Auburn and UF loses to Georgia. Would probably need to win at least 2 more to pass Bama.
Miss St is the #7 SEC team no matter what, IMO.
Arkansas - Ole Miss - Tennessee - Oklahoma should finish in that order for seeding no matter what.
This post was edited on 5/22/26 at 11:02 am
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Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:05 am to AUTiger789
I would be pleasantly surprised if Alabama holds onto a top eight seed after yesterday.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:10 am to AHM21
I don't think the committee weighs the SEC tourney as high as some people think
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:11 am to AUTiger789
quote:
3. Georgia hosting 30. Jax St.
Georgia does not want this smoke.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:11 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Georgia and Texas will be the top 2 SEC teams. The only way Texas can jump them now is for Georgia to lose to Florida and for the Longhorns to make the Championship Game at least. UGA is one win away from locking up the #3 spot. Auburn might could pass Texas if they won the SEC but can’t pass Georgia IMO. Chances are still unlikely though.
the sec tourney shouldn't matter as much as the regular season. A lot of coaches rest players once they know they have a top 8 locked. Georgia was the best team in the SEC this season and deserve the highest seed. Hopefully they can do more with it than our pathetic showing last season.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:13 am to hookem33
quote:
the sec tourney shouldn't matter as much as the regular season.
It's easier to help your cause than to hurt it in the tournament.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:14 am to nicholastiger
quote:
I don't think the committee weighs the SEC tourney as high as some people think
i dont either, we'll know when we see what they do with florida.
also if florida state is ahead of UF or A&M that will be BS
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:14 am to borotiger
quote:
It's easier to help your cause than to hurt it in the tournament.
That's true. Good time for a bubble team to get hot.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:15 am to borotiger
quote:
Georgia does not want this smoke.
I still think they go to Atlanta for Tech. Makes more sense geographically.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:16 am to hookem33
quote:
the sec tourney shouldn't matter as much as the regular season.
I believe I heard on the radio yesterday that you guys are starting a guy that's only thrown 9 innings and has a 7+ ERA this season. Is that correct?
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:33 am to HogPharmer
quote:
I believe I heard on the radio yesterday that you guys are starting a guy that's only thrown 9 innings and has a 7+ ERA this season. Is that correct?
ashamed to admit I haven't even checked to see who's starting but it wouldn't surprise me. We have a top 8 locked up so I'm not all that interested in this tourney. You guys have a lot more to gain from this than we do. I fully expect Ark to win this game.
I checked. Sounds like Schloss wants to give a lot of arms some experience in this game so I do think we'll see some guys who haven't pitched much, if at all, on the weekends. Riojas is dealing with tendonitis so we won't see him at all.
This post was edited on 5/22/26 at 11:37 am
Posted on 5/22/26 at 12:26 pm to AUTiger789
State isn’t a lock to host or at least we shouldn’t be.
Our record against the top half of the conference is atrocious
Our record against the top half of the conference is atrocious
Posted on 5/22/26 at 12:29 pm to borotiger
quote:
Georgia does not want this smoke.
I really don’t
Posted on 5/22/26 at 1:55 pm to deltaland
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State isn’t a lock to host or at least we shouldn’t be. Our record against the top half of the conference is atrocious
I’m hesitant to say lock but I think it’s highly likely. You’re not wrong about our record against good teams but I think the combo of RPI/DSR/KPI combined with 18 aggregate league wins probably gets us the nod. Plus the fact that we have zero bad losses.
It may be a low end host though. Could easily be in the 14-16 range paired with one of the tippy top teams.
This post was edited on 5/22/26 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 5/22/26 at 6:25 pm to Captain Falcon
quote:
Plus the fact that we have zero bad losses.
This is the upside. Really weird team
We destroy anyone below us but struggle to punch above our weight. We have the talent and I think it’s mostly mental because our pitching staff particularly the bullpen is so young. They get nervous in big games and cannot throw strikes. Our Friday guys can beat anyone but it falls way off after that against top teams
If we make a run in postseason it will be because McPherson gets his groove back. That’s our only shot. We need another solid starter besides Valincius
Posted on 5/22/26 at 6:28 pm to deltaland
quote:You are about the only person that thinks that.
State isn’t a lock to host
Posted on 5/22/26 at 7:13 pm to AUTiger789
I hope you are right. I would love to be a 2 seed in Nebraska’s region.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 7:16 pm to Dawgs2122
quote:
Vols even in?
I really hope you are trolling. We’ve been a lock since the Texas series.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 7:54 pm to Dawgs2122
quote:somebody is new to college baseball
Vols even in?
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