Captain Falcon
| Favorite team: | Mississippi St.  |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
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| Number of Posts: | 943 |
| Registered on: | 4/30/2020 |
| Online Status: | Online |
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re: Bama MSU over is 60.5
Posted by Captain Falcon on 10/2/26 at 10:03 am to SECSolomonGrundy
quote:
James has been solid at RT. KBJ is a solid depth piece on the DL. Both are contributing to the success of this year's team. Would they be starting if they were still at Miss St? McVay definitely wouldn't be starting at LT for Bama. Maybe at RT, I have no idea.
James was comparable at State to what they are getting from McVay. State’s 2025 OL was an abject disaster. That team goes 8-4 instead of 5-7 if they had a serviceable OL.
KBJ played on the two worst defensive lines in State history and was a non factor.
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re: Bama MSU over is 60.5
Posted by Captain Falcon on 10/2/26 at 9:10 am to SECSolomonGrundy
quote:
Yeah i think MSU are still figuring out their options at LT. Bama has a couple pass rushers trying to play their way into the 1st round with Pierre and Thompkins. That seems to be the biggest mismatch.
It’s a big concern for State but to be fair they’ve played three really good pass rushers in a row, had some issues but survived each one of them.
Don’t know if that’s a sign that they’re on borrowed time with that LT issue or if it means they’re good enough to overcome it. Probably some of both.
re: Alabama vs Miss St thoughts?
Posted by Captain Falcon on 10/1/26 at 8:17 pm to LagunaTide
quote:
Mississippi State and South Carolina are basically the same tier, so we should have little to no issue dominating them. Kamario Taylor is a great QB, but that's all MSU has. The rest of the team is pedestrian. This will be a great week to get our secondary tuned up before we face Georgia in a true heavyweight fight.
Eh, State was winning in Columbia by 3 possessions until garbage time made it closer. Also unlike South Carolina, State actually has a QB who is a better than terrible passer.
I would also put State’s Top 4 WR’s up against most anybody in the country. Evans is a star, Magee has taken a huge step forward, and they’ve also got two speed demons in Ragins and Johnson who have had some really good moments.
The most likely outcome in this game is a Bama win, and I think that’s pretty much the consensus opinion among the media and both fanbases. But I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see a scenario where State wins.
Outside of the talent difference, Bama was also just a terrible matchup for State during the Saban era. Never really had an offense that was capable of explosive plays in the passing game. This State team has that for sure though, so I’m curious to see what that amounts to.
re: Miss State Vs Bama 3rd down conversion
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/30/26 at 2:35 pm to narddogg81
I mean at the end of the day this is a bit of a free shot for State. Nobody 3 weeks ago thought this game was of any interest whatsoever. There were more people that thought State would start 1-3 than 4-0.
You only get so many big home games like this, so it would be really disappointing if Bama just steamrolled State once again. But State can absorb a loss here and still be a Top 25 team or heck even a Playoff contender late in the season.
They’ve got to go 2-2 in October to be in the Playoff mix, but they’ll probably be a slight favorite against Oklahoma in Starkville, so it’s probably a matter of can you win that OU game and then steal one game from Bama, LSU, or Texas. I don’t think that’s totally out of the question if Kamario keeps playing at his early season form.
You only get so many big home games like this, so it would be really disappointing if Bama just steamrolled State once again. But State can absorb a loss here and still be a Top 25 team or heck even a Playoff contender late in the season.
They’ve got to go 2-2 in October to be in the Playoff mix, but they’ll probably be a slight favorite against Oklahoma in Starkville, so it’s probably a matter of can you win that OU game and then steal one game from Bama, LSU, or Texas. I don’t think that’s totally out of the question if Kamario keeps playing at his early season form.
re: SEC programs that never beat Nick Saban at Alabama
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/30/26 at 2:07 pm to BamaGradinTn
quote:
Nope.
First year, 2007. Bama has the ball on the State 2 yard line, third and goal, under 10 seconds left in the half, leading 9-3. They're about to go up 12-3 or 16-3, right? Nope. John Parker Wilson throws a 100 yard pick six, and Bama goes into the locker room trailing 10-9. And they never led the rest of the game. JPW throws another INT in State territory three plays into the second half, and State scores again. Final score: 17-12.
The wildest thing about State vs Bama in that era was that Bama had like a three year streak of not scoring an offensive TD against State.
Bama won 17-0 in 2005 on two defensive touchdowns.
State won 24-16 in 2006 (Bama’s only TD was a pick 6)
State won 17-12 in 07 (Bama kicked four FG’s)
re: Miss State Vs Bama 3rd down conversion
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/30/26 at 12:07 am to Marktastic86
quote:
Not good for State if Keelon has that kind of time. He's shown what he can do when he's comfortable in the pocket the past two weeks.
Fortunately for MSU, the 'Bama defense has no clue if they want to be borderline-elite or give up huge plays every other down, so it'll probably even out.
I’ve no doubt that Russell is going to throw for plenty of yards. The key will be if State can limit explosive plays for Bama and hold them to FG’s or force turnovers in certain spots.
State is going to have score well into the 30’s, possibly into the 40’s to win this. Doable, but obviously going to be a big challenge. A wild thought nonetheless considering that State was doing good to break double digits against Bama in the Saban era. I think Mike Leach scored one TD in three years against Saban.
re: Miss State Vs Bama 3rd down conversion
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/29/26 at 10:13 pm to narddogg81
State’s defense is not flashy whatsoever outside of the two starting corners that might be the best CB duo in the SEC. But the one thing they’ve done really well so far is tackle, and they’ve also limited teams once they get in plus territory.
So far I think this has been Arnett’s best coaching job in all the years he has been DC at State. I don’t think they’re especially talented overall but have they played sound football when they’ve needed to so far. Better against the run than I expected, too.
They are probably a good pass rusher away from being one of the better defenses in the league. That’s definitely the concern for me though, they haven’t gotten very much pressure and at times opposing QB’s have been able to sit back and pick them apart.
So far I think this has been Arnett’s best coaching job in all the years he has been DC at State. I don’t think they’re especially talented overall but have they played sound football when they’ve needed to so far. Better against the run than I expected, too.
They are probably a good pass rusher away from being one of the better defenses in the league. That’s definitely the concern for me though, they haven’t gotten very much pressure and at times opposing QB’s have been able to sit back and pick them apart.
re: State vs Mizzou, post mortem and it’s implications for Bama
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/29/26 at 2:09 pm to Shamoan
1. I think he has been banged since at least the SC game. He had a run late in that game that looked like he was moving way slower than usual. And he didn’t seem shifty at all against Mizzou.
2. I think they are doing everything they can to keep him healthy because they have NO PLAN at backup QB. Like, if he gets hurt then State isn’t winning another SEC game. The options behind him are a walk on from Jackson Prep and two not good retreads in Swann and Rashada (yes, that Rashada… he’s now the 4th string QB at State).
3. The offense has worked without him running it much, so why reinvent the wheel if you don’t have to? Top 5 in total offense, Top 15 in scoring offense, Top 30 in rushing offense. All with Kamario basically just being a pocket passer and mostly relying on Fluff in the run game.
2. I think they are doing everything they can to keep him healthy because they have NO PLAN at backup QB. Like, if he gets hurt then State isn’t winning another SEC game. The options behind him are a walk on from Jackson Prep and two not good retreads in Swann and Rashada (yes, that Rashada… he’s now the 4th string QB at State).
3. The offense has worked without him running it much, so why reinvent the wheel if you don’t have to? Top 5 in total offense, Top 15 in scoring offense, Top 30 in rushing offense. All with Kamario basically just being a pocket passer and mostly relying on Fluff in the run game.
re: Bama at State in a massive showdown
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/28/26 at 10:50 am to JamalMurry27
It has the potential to be the most entertaining game in the SEC all season that could go either way.
Or it might be a 45-21 Bama win that’s not very interesting.
I’m undecided on how competitive I think it is, but my lean is Bama wins.
Or it might be a 45-21 Bama win that’s not very interesting.
I’m undecided on how competitive I think it is, but my lean is Bama wins.
re: Mississippi State has a chance to jump into the top 10 with a win VS Bama next week.
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/27/26 at 7:00 pm to crimsoncoded94
I give State about a 20% chance of winning. Which is better than the vast majority of the Saban era. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve walked into a State-Bama game thinking “why am I doing this? This is a waste of time and money.”
It felt impossible for State to beat Saban most years. I would not say it’s impossible this time around. But Kamario is going to have to have Heisman winning performance.
I just continue to believe State is good but not Playoff caliber. I think they just aren’t good enough at the tackle positions, and on defense they’re playing hard but it just feels like too many injuries are piling up and they’re due for a game where they can’t get a stop. I lean toward that game coming against Bama.
It felt impossible for State to beat Saban most years. I would not say it’s impossible this time around. But Kamario is going to have to have Heisman winning performance.
I just continue to believe State is good but not Playoff caliber. I think they just aren’t good enough at the tackle positions, and on defense they’re playing hard but it just feels like too many injuries are piling up and they’re due for a game where they can’t get a stop. I lean toward that game coming against Bama.
re: How has State performed after being hyped in the past?
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/25/26 at 4:34 pm to BurgTiger
It’s hard to compare when it’s a different coach as the previous times State was ranked.
Leach was kinda in and out of the polls in his three years here. They won some big games but then would have a game where they couldn’t score against Kentucky or something like that. It was mostly positive but had its weird and frustrating moments too. The 2020 LSU win was the most fools gold situation in recent memory. LSU stunk that year and no one else the rest of that season defended us the same way Bo Pelini did…. So we stumbled our way to 4-7.
State had a fair bit of hype in early 2018 until everyone realized that Joe Moorhead was a massive downgrade from Mullen.
They never got much hype under Mullen other than 2014. That was always the deal, picked to finish last in the West or close to it every year then would find their way to 6 to 8 wins.
I do think this is probably the most hype State has gotten since ‘14 just because Kamario has kinda become a household name all the sudden.
Leach was kinda in and out of the polls in his three years here. They won some big games but then would have a game where they couldn’t score against Kentucky or something like that. It was mostly positive but had its weird and frustrating moments too. The 2020 LSU win was the most fools gold situation in recent memory. LSU stunk that year and no one else the rest of that season defended us the same way Bo Pelini did…. So we stumbled our way to 4-7.
State had a fair bit of hype in early 2018 until everyone realized that Joe Moorhead was a massive downgrade from Mullen.
They never got much hype under Mullen other than 2014. That was always the deal, picked to finish last in the West or close to it every year then would find their way to 6 to 8 wins.
I do think this is probably the most hype State has gotten since ‘14 just because Kamario has kinda become a household name all the sudden.
re: Shane Beamer
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/25/26 at 8:44 am to Hailst8
I definitely get the frustration from SC on this. Two years ago it seemed like they had a star in the making at QB and Sellers has not improved whatsoever as he’s gotten further in his career.
re: How is your B-Ball team looking?
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/23/26 at 1:09 pm to Night Vision
I’ve got less of a clue on State than I’ve ever had. Hubbard is back, lot of unknowns otherwise, I trust Jans generally speaking but also the team sucked last year.
re: Moo State going for cowbell world record against Mizzou
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/23/26 at 12:53 pm to Faurot fodder
I was there the night they set the world record the first time. It was at a pep rally before the 2015 LSU game.
Guinness apparently has some strict requirements for it to count as a world record. Like they have to have a bunch of their representatives there to certify the actual count. I remember a lot of people in blue t shirts walking around watching. They asked everyone to ring for like 30 seconds all at the same time so they could get a formal count.
Don’t know if it still works that way, but I just know it’s a bit of an ordeal to get an official Guinness World Record. There will 100% be games from the past that had way more cowbells than the old world record but if the world record people aren’t on site to certify it, it doesn’t count.
Guinness apparently has some strict requirements for it to count as a world record. Like they have to have a bunch of their representatives there to certify the actual count. I remember a lot of people in blue t shirts walking around watching. They asked everyone to ring for like 30 seconds all at the same time so they could get a formal count.
Don’t know if it still works that way, but I just know it’s a bit of an ordeal to get an official Guinness World Record. There will 100% be games from the past that had way more cowbells than the old world record but if the world record people aren’t on site to certify it, it doesn’t count.
re: Hey MSU folks, tell me your thoughts on Rhett Hobart
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/23/26 at 12:48 pm to Hewonbyalot
I know Rhett, we were students working in the athletic department at the same time. Met him when he was a marketing GA and I was working with media relations.
Nice guy, always friendly and pleasant to interact with.
Don’t think he should be an SEC AD. And him basically cementing himself as a Cohen guy would scare the heck out of me if I was a school thinking about hiring him.
Nice guy, always friendly and pleasant to interact with.
Don’t think he should be an SEC AD. And him basically cementing himself as a Cohen guy would scare the heck out of me if I was a school thinking about hiring him.
re: Are my chips down or is the MSU RB's name Fluff Bothwell?
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/21/26 at 2:01 pm to Marcelo Lavanda
And he’s awesome, too. Kamario understandably gets all the hype and you’d never know that Fluff has back to back 100 yard rushing games in these two big wins.
re: Kamario Taylor and Jeff Lebby looking elsewhere next season?
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/21/26 at 1:55 pm to bayou85
quote:
I know a lot of State fans who have been wanting Lebby gone.
He was 100% on the hot seat entering the year. And you can make a case he’s not totally out of the woods if the season somehow falls apart and they only win 5ish games again.
But the strong start seems to suggest this team is good enough change perception of Lebby, for at least as long as Kamario is still on campus.
re: I am really looking forward to AU vs UF and USC vs MSU
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/18/26 at 1:14 pm to RoyalAir
quote:
It's not hyperbole to say that State at home is the biggest game of Beamer's career thus far. Zero shade against State. They look good and have plenty if talent. But Beamer has 3 years' head start on a rebuild, and has shown flashes here and there of being a good coach. But he hasn't put it together. This is a game that, realistically, he can and needs to win. Home crowd, new OC that finally appears to know how to use talent. Stocked roster at most positions. If he can't do it on Saturday, he ain't never gonna do it, and Donati will be starting to work the phones. He was given a mulligan last year, because Mike Shula was in way over his head. Beamer should have known that. That he didn't, is painfully concerning. But, this is the best staff he's had, now in '26. Needs to make it happen.
Yeah, I think it’s fair to say SC needs this one more. State could really use a win but I think it’s more about finding a way to at least split SC and Mizzou.
If State loses this one, I do think Mizzou in Starkville next week becomes must win.
re: Who is the worst AD in the SEC?
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/17/26 at 2:12 pm to Landmass
quote:
Well, we haven't but maybe you are on to something with State. I failed to recognize the level of their game here.
Cohen sucked at State too, still have no idea what Auburn saw there.
Stricklin’s time at State was weird and he’s kinda responsible for the 2010’s collapse of State basketball, but he did a lot of good things for facilities and marketing at State. He was mostly well-like by State people until he hired Mullen away to UF.
Byrne is widely considered the best State athletic director ever. Only in charge for two years but basically brought our football and baseball programs back from the dead.
re: Most underrated week 3 matchup… State v USC
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/17/26 at 9:06 am to Cockeee Don
I will say one concern that I have from
State’s side is they played extremely well on the road last week, and I worry that it’s hard to play well on the road in back to back weeks unless you’re an elite team. And State probably needs at least a B+ effort to win on Saturday.
State’s side is they played extremely well on the road last week, and I worry that it’s hard to play well on the road in back to back weeks unless you’re an elite team. And State probably needs at least a B+ effort to win on Saturday.
re: Who is the worst AD in the SEC?
Posted by Captain Falcon on 9/17/26 at 9:03 am to Landmass
You have no idea how relieved John Cohen is that Hunter Yurachek exists.
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