OU vs Bama …..football talk

Game will come down to OU's kicker being awesome and Bama's kicker being an absolute bum.

If OU creates turnovers and/or Bama commits turnovers, OU wins or its at least close.

If Bama doesn’t commit turnovers, Bama wins.

Thats literally how this game is determined. OU will not have a flip the switch and have a good offense all of a sudden. They are abysmal.

Bamas not going to all of a sudden learn to block and get a running game.

Turnovers. And maybe.. special teams. But NOT the ones that MAKE the kicks, the ones that MiSS the kicks like last game.

The only difference in these two teams is, OU cannot blow out bama. Bama can blow out OU. Yes I get it, -3 rushing yards against Georgia, after the sacks, yada yada, but that’s misleading. The whole game is misleading. Bama will be healthy. Bama probably wins by 2+ scores if they just play “good” football.

Two turnovers were terrible fricking throws to nobody. They were not takeaways

I have concerns about Bama's TE Cuevos. He can be a game changer so we have to know if he is in, he ain't in to block..

Ty Simpson is really good at intermediate/underneath routes which don't take much time to develop. That's where they got most of their yards against us and were able to punch it in a couple times.

OU Sr. RB Jovantae Barnes last played in the Auburn game. Was banged up and decided to redshirt this year, but postseason does not count towards a redshirt so I expect him to have a big role Friday night.

OU's patchwork OL gets some help with Sexton returning but we really need starting center Maikkula who was out for the LSU game. The OU depth at OL is just pitiful.

Here's to an injury-free football contest on a beautiful Friday night

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OU finally has all 5 running backs healthy

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XR is sporting a knee brace and Blaylock has a shoulder brace.. Ott refuses to block, and Tatum is a fumble machine. We have a healthy Barnes, that's it

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Two turnovers were terrible fricking throws to nobody. They were not takeaways

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Umm, first, Simpson only threw ONE pick, perhaps you didn't notice the OU LB in Simpsons face when he threw the pick 6? Or the strip that caused the fumble on Alabama's PR? Or the strip sack in the third quarter? Those are called TAKEAWAYS. Not one of those turnovers was a gimme. Perhaps you should re-watch the game highlights. OU won that game because they got to Simpson, and pressured him just enough for big plays. This game they have two starting DL back in the game (R Mason Thomas and Jayden Jackson). In the first game Venables didn't get enough credit for his defensive scheme. He had to mix in MANY more blitzes than normal because those two were out, and though successful, they did get burned. This game I expect them to get some better pressure without blitzing as much.

If Bama from last year and this year shows up, OU wins again. I keep saying Bama pound for pound is the better team but heart has everything to do with winning and OU has shown plenty.

It will come down again to fumbles and INT and special teams play. I have no clue who wins this game. I know it’s going to be a battle between two blue bloods and it will be close again.

Wish I could have gone to Norman. Never been. My wife’s niece graduated a few years ago and she raved about OU.

Here’s to a good game and hoping the Refs call a good game

If the teams that played earlier this season play again, Bama should win. Anyone who watched the first game and isn't wearing a covered wagon on their head should agree. The issue is, which Bama team shows up - the one that played in the first game, or the one that played in the SECCG? If we don't get our groove back with the couple of weeks off, OU's defense will embarrass us and they'll win something like 16-0.

If Alabama simply plays mistake free football, we'll easily win. Oklahoma just doesn't have the players or the coaching to keep up with us.

I posted this breakdown on the Bama board and will share it here if people are actually interested in talking objectively. Obviously its from a Bama perspective, but the data is all adjusted for opponent and sourced from FEI, SP+ and the College Football Nerds.




OFFENSE:
-I was shocked to see that at least according to the computers the Bama offense hasnt dropped off since the first OU game (16th going into that game vs 17th now)
-I dont see how thats possible but I will point out that Bama went from the 15th SOS going into that game to the #1 SOS going back to LSU has played the FEI #4, #8, #12 and #15 defenses with only E IL as a break
-Computers see Bama under 7YPA in this one so don't expect a ton of points unless we get midseason Ty and avoid turnovers
-That said we put up 400 yards of total offense last round and that number should've resulted in 28-31 points absent the turnovers and FG woes which gave OU points and continually killed momentum
-OU has the #2 adjusted rush defense in the country in YPC, but a healthier version of Bama ran pretty effectively against their 2/3 safety looks last time. Getting Jam and more importantly Dewberry and Brailsford back/closer to effective is critical, but Brailsford was a major liability against UGA and with Geno and Dewberry both hurt or out at LG I just cant see how the inside run game functions against the OU DL
-OU is going to blitz their asses off under 2/3 safety looks. They know it, we know it, everyone knows it. Can Bama do anything about it when they get those looks? Ty has been awful against pressure since USCe. To me it all depends on edge protection and #15. The opportunities were there in the first matchup and people forget Ty had more than 200 yards passing at halftime last go around. He must complete the underneath looks and get the ball out quickly or this could turn into a defensive massacre
-The failure to value the football on offense and gifting them the 7 points on the Pick 6 was the difference in the game, that has to be cleaned up to have a chance as I don't think the offense will move the ball as well this go around as they did last time

DEFENSE:
-The Bama defense allowed virtually nothing in the first matchup
-2.6 YPC and outside of one 20 yard run it would've looked much worse. They simply couldn't sustain drives even absent the turnovers we saw against LSU.
-Its possible Mateer is healthier for this game so it'll be interesting to monitor that early and I'm very curious to see if Dijon Lee can go as he was a gamechanger when he subbed in for Domani earlier this season although Domani has been fine as of late IMO.
-OU only managed 12 first downs the entire day so without the field advantage situation (all but one scoring drive started inside the Bama 35) and 7 non-offensive points the perception going into this rematch would be very different

OVERALL
-According to the computers this is as close a matchup as you could possibly have (12 v 13) which means it'll come down to turnovers or special teams, neither of which have favored Bama as of late
-Problem is Bama isn't the same team right now and really have no specific area of competency on offense to build on going into a night road game against one of the two best defensive minds in the country
-So again it comes down to #15. If Bama had a midseason day from Ty Simpson where he's 70% and 9YPA they probably get to 23-27 points and win while controlling the stat battle, but we haven't seen that version in weeks.
-If its the SECCG version of the offense I cant see Bama getting past 13 points and there's no way that wins on the road in Norman IMO
-Its going to irritate some Bama people but I don't think its unreasonable to suggest that if Bama finds themselves at halftime unable to complete the underneath stuff again a change should be made at QB because there is no path to victory with that level of execution in the offense in this matchup

Listened to a Bama pod and they said Cuevas will be 75% and is just a body

Overton is a massive loss and most of the guys that missed UGA game are still hurt

Now add that it’s in Norman at night and OU has the advantage in basically every category included punter and kicker, I don’t see anyway Bama wins unless OU completely shits the bed

24-9 OU is my prediction