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Playoff Scenario
Posted on 9/29/25 at 3:49 pm
Posted on 9/29/25 at 3:49 pm
Going by this week’s KFord rankings and simulating the rest of the season based off his projections…. Just straight up W/L projection for each remaining game for all teams…. This is what we’d be looking at:
1. Ohio State (13-0)- BIG 10 CHAMPS
2. Oregon (12-1)- loss to OSU
3. Miami (13-0)- ACC CHAMPS
4. Alabama (12-1)- SEC CHAMPS; loss to FSU
5. Georgia (11-1)- loss to AL
6. Penn State (10-2)- losses to OSU and OR
7. Texas (10-3)- losses to OSU, UGA and AL.
8.
9.
10.
11. Texas Tech (13-0)- BIG 12 CHAMPS
12. Memphis (13-0)- AMERICAN CHAMPS
Those final three spots would likely come down to these nine teams, and I have no clue how it would shake out:
10-2 Notre Dame; losses to Miami and A&M
10-2 Indiana; losses to OR and PSU
10-2 Ole Miss; losses to UGA and OU
10-2 Tennessee; losses to UGA and AL
9-3 Texas A&M; losses to LSU, MIZ, TX
9-3 Oklahoma; losses to TX, TN, AL
9-3 LSU; losses to OM, AL, and OU
9-3 Michigan- losses to OU, USC, OSU
9-3 USC- losses to IL, ND, OR
It’s a conundrum. History shows Notre Dame gets favoritism, but how do you send them over A&M? I think that likely cancels both of those out.
Tennessee and Indiana sitting at 10-2 would win the contest for “best losses”, but the quality wins would be a bit lacking….
And 9-3 Oklahoma would have a head-to-head win over 10-2 Ole Miss… Sooners would by far have played the most difficult schedule.
My gut tells me Indiana, Tennessee, and Oklahoma in that order.
Ole Miss would be first out… followed by Texas A&M, then Notre Dame, then LSU, then Michigan and USC.
I think Texas would be a for sure lock since they would have made the SEC title game and I don’t think a loss there would count against their resume… but also their lack of quality wins would be an issue with many.
1. Ohio State (13-0)- BIG 10 CHAMPS
2. Oregon (12-1)- loss to OSU
3. Miami (13-0)- ACC CHAMPS
4. Alabama (12-1)- SEC CHAMPS; loss to FSU
5. Georgia (11-1)- loss to AL
6. Penn State (10-2)- losses to OSU and OR
7. Texas (10-3)- losses to OSU, UGA and AL.
8.
9.
10.
11. Texas Tech (13-0)- BIG 12 CHAMPS
12. Memphis (13-0)- AMERICAN CHAMPS
Those final three spots would likely come down to these nine teams, and I have no clue how it would shake out:
10-2 Notre Dame; losses to Miami and A&M
10-2 Indiana; losses to OR and PSU
10-2 Ole Miss; losses to UGA and OU
10-2 Tennessee; losses to UGA and AL
9-3 Texas A&M; losses to LSU, MIZ, TX
9-3 Oklahoma; losses to TX, TN, AL
9-3 LSU; losses to OM, AL, and OU
9-3 Michigan- losses to OU, USC, OSU
9-3 USC- losses to IL, ND, OR
It’s a conundrum. History shows Notre Dame gets favoritism, but how do you send them over A&M? I think that likely cancels both of those out.
Tennessee and Indiana sitting at 10-2 would win the contest for “best losses”, but the quality wins would be a bit lacking….
And 9-3 Oklahoma would have a head-to-head win over 10-2 Ole Miss… Sooners would by far have played the most difficult schedule.
My gut tells me Indiana, Tennessee, and Oklahoma in that order.
Ole Miss would be first out… followed by Texas A&M, then Notre Dame, then LSU, then Michigan and USC.
I think Texas would be a for sure lock since they would have made the SEC title game and I don’t think a loss there would count against their resume… but also their lack of quality wins would be an issue with many.
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Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:03 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
Georgia (11-1)- loss to AL
We're not running the table with our defense.
This post was edited on 9/29/25 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:04 pm to AUTiger789
10-2 Ole Miss isn’t getting left out.
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:15 pm to 03 West CoChamps
Texas in the playoffs- and they're one of the 7 you can count on before you start arguing the rest??!!!
gold, Jerry!!!!!!
gold, Jerry!!!!!!
This post was edited on 9/29/25 at 4:16 pm
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:16 pm to AUTiger789
So Texas would lose to UGA but get into the SECCG against Alabama over UGA…?
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:28 pm to AUTiger789
Miami won't be ACC Champs
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:28 pm to skrayper
We ain't winning the SEC with this defense. I'd pick us if Bama had any semblance of one... but they don't and injuries are piling up to boot.
This post was edited on 9/29/25 at 4:31 pm
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:31 pm to antibarner
quote:We’re five games in and there’s no team without some serious questions to answer in the next 2-3 weeks.
We ain't winning the SEC with this defense.
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:36 pm to AUTiger789
Can’t reward ND for losing their 2 ranked games all season. Would be a pretty simple scenario if 3 playoff spots open there:
ETA also don’t know why you have 13-0 Texas Tech as an 11 seed and 3-loss Texas as a 7 seed. In that scenario Texas is traveling to Lubbock for an opening round playoff game, not the other way around
quote:
10-2 Indiana; losses to OR and PSU
10-2 Ole Miss; losses to UGA and OU
10-2 Tennessee; losses to UGA and AL
ETA also don’t know why you have 13-0 Texas Tech as an 11 seed and 3-loss Texas as a 7 seed. In that scenario Texas is traveling to Lubbock for an opening round playoff game, not the other way around
This post was edited on 9/29/25 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:39 pm to AUTiger789
What are these playoffs you speak of?
I just want to get to Progressive Stadium and so I can watch Hugh get beat down by a decent C-USA squad after he plays Shoal Creek with that horrid golf swing.
I just want to get to Progressive Stadium and so I can watch Hugh get beat down by a decent C-USA squad after he plays Shoal Creek with that horrid golf swing.
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:40 pm to AUTiger789
I think you have to look at who has the easiest path...
Everyone was laughing at Notre Dame still being ranked at 0-2, but they're probably gonna run the table now, and I think they are getting better
Who has the easiest path in the SEC? Alabama has gotten better but their schedule is still hard as nails
Everyone was laughing at Notre Dame still being ranked at 0-2, but they're probably gonna run the table now, and I think they are getting better
Who has the easiest path in the SEC? Alabama has gotten better but their schedule is still hard as nails
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:44 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
9-3 Texas A&M; losses to LSU, MIZ, TX
I don't think we lose all 3 of these.
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:49 pm to Tantal
While I wouldn't be surprised if we drop 3 games, I don't think it will be those 3 specifically. We are always good for at least 1 WTF game where we just forget to show up against a team we should beat on paper. Who knows, could be this week against State!
Posted on 9/29/25 at 4:53 pm to AUTiger789
It is still Sept.
The playoff scenarios are much broader than that at the moment.
The playoff scenarios are much broader than that at the moment.
Posted on 9/29/25 at 5:00 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
Those final three spots would likely come down to these nine teams, and I have no clue how it would shake out:
I can give you one clue. LSU won't be one of them.
Posted on 9/29/25 at 5:03 pm to AUTiger789
I think Penn State loses to Tosu and IU. And 9-3 with that soft arse schedule isn't getting them in the CFP.
Posted on 9/29/25 at 5:12 pm to 03 West CoChamps
quote:
10-2 Ole Miss isn’t getting left out.
I agree they *shouldn’t*, but in this scenario, who do they jump ahead of?
10-2 Tennessee
9-3 Oklahoma who would have beaten OM head to head
10-2 Indiana
Those are your options.
Posted on 9/29/25 at 5:12 pm to AUTiger789
This is adorable.
Posted on 9/29/25 at 5:23 pm to AUTiger789
Add a loss to FL and OU for the longhorns and then remove them from this equation
Posted on 9/29/25 at 5:25 pm to AUTiger789
It's going to take a lot for a 10-2 Big 10 or SEC team to get left out for a 9-3 team. If there are multiple 9-3 teams that is their easy out to leave them out. A 10-2 Indiana is the only SEC/Big 10 team I think that would have to be worried about getting left out.
This post was edited on 9/29/25 at 5:26 pm
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