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Message

re: Gov. Ivey's Stay-At-Home Order

Posted on 4/7/20 at 9:45 am to
Posted by kage
ATL
Member since Feb 2010
4068 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 9:45 am to
quote:

Alabama's projected death count went from 5500 deaths to 950 just because the words "shelter in place" were added to the restrictions already in place.


That's the point of what they're trying to do. The irony is that when infections and death rates fall or things aren't as bad as they would have been, people will say...."Look, it wasn't that bad. Why did we shut down?" when that's exactly what the shut downs are supposed to do is mitigate the damage.

I want this thing to end as soon as possible because my wife was furloughed for the foreseeable future, and I don't think her industry is coming back any time soon - meetings and events. But if anyone thinks we're going to "open back up" in May, they're just being completely unrealistic.

And for those that say let's re-open and this is overblown, please be the first to go and sit in a crowded movie theater or go to a trade show and shake 100 hands in a day without a vaccine to this thing.

Posted by MrAUTigers
Florida
Member since Sep 2013
28260 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 10:54 am to
quote:

Three people die daily on the roads and interstates in Alabama (over 1000 people every year). You ever remember them shutting down the roads because of that? Nope.



w.o.w..
Posted by Aubie Spr96
lolwut?
Member since Dec 2009
41031 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:18 pm to
quote:

But those two things are about as different as you can get


I'm not letting you leave the house because you might infect someone else or yourself thus killing them or you and overwhelming our medical system. (53 dead in two months)

I'm not letting you leave the house because you might hit someone else or yourself thus killing them or you and overwhelming our medical system. (180 dead in two months on average)

It's the exact same argument.


I can easily see another administration using similar scientific based arguments for more draconian measures. The Green New Deal is one that I can see being implemented in the same fashion. After all, 90% of all scientist agree so we have to do it to stop climate change!
Posted by AuSteeler
montgomery. AL
Member since Jan 2015
2989 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

The math on this “pandemic” unravels daily. The models they used were flawed and haven’t accurately predicted anything. At some point, people are going to realize that roughly 50% of all the cases are from two locations and get along with their lives.

How in the frick do you shut down an entire state because (40) people die in the course of two months? It’s insane.



You just don't get it do you? Do you not read or hear Dr. Fauci's explanation?

It's not the deaths..its the CASES. We have over 2,000 cases. And how many tested. The key is not letting those 2,000 multiply our deaths. And the only way to do that is with quarantines and stay home directives.

I and many of my peers in my age range(over 60) are the most vulnerable, and lately it has hit even the middle aged group.

Posted by Leto II
Arrakis
Member since Dec 2018
21202 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:26 pm to
This is the line of thinking that will get CFB season canceled in 2020.
Posted by Placekicker
Florida
Member since Jan 2016
7990 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

The math on this “pandemic” unravels daily. The models they used were flawed and haven’t accurately predicted anything. At some point, people are going to realize that roughly 50% of all the cases are from two locations and get along with their lives. How in the frick do you shut down an entire state because (40) people die in the course of two months? It’s insane.


Because, those 40 people could become 40,000 if we continued to live like we had been. Look at what’s going on in New York. They have more cases than any one country in the world. Look at Miami county- the spring break party capital. They have 6 times more cases than our entire state. Shutting things down now was the play. Right now, of the 381,000 or so cases that have reached a resolution, Recovered or dying, this thing has a 21% death rate. Now, there are still 1.1 million cases ongoing. Apply that 21% to that number. Now, take 21% of our population if we didn’t shelter in place.

We were slated to have the highest death rate per capita in the country, until we shut the state down. Now, the prediction is much lower.

This is a bad death too. You basically suffocate because your lungs are slowly turned into concrete.

I’m sorry that this has affected your business. Maybe you will qualify for a stimulus loan.
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 1:29 pm
Posted by PJinAtl
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2007
12737 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

I'm not letting you leave the house because you might hit someone else or yourself thus killing them or you and overwhelming our medical system. (180 dead in two months on average)
But that is a pretty flat line. In pandemics you have exponential growth. Sort of like a nuclear reaction.

Just because you are in a deadly car wreck, it doesn't mean that is going to cause 3 more deadly car wrecks, which each in turn cause 3 more deadly wrecks themselves, which each end up causing 3 more deadly wrecks, and on and on and on.

In this case, if an infected person infects 3 other people every hour they are out and about, you can start with one case and in:
1 hour you have four cases (original infected plus 3 more)
2 hours you have 16 cases (original case, plus the three he infected in hour one, plus three more he infected in hour two, plus the 9 more the three infected in hour one infected in hour two)
3 hours you have 64 cases
4 hours you have 256 cases

So in the span of a CBS broadcast football game one person has infected 255 others.
Posted by kage
ATL
Member since Feb 2010
4068 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

I'm not letting you leave the house because you might infect someone else or yourself thus killing them or you and overwhelming our medical system. (53 dead in two months)

I'm not letting you leave the house because you might hit someone else or yourself thus killing them or you and overwhelming our medical system. (180 dead in two months on average)

It's the exact same argument.


It's not even close. If the quarantine wasn't in place, that 53 would grow exponentially. It's low because people are actually starting to pay attention and stay at home so they can actually manage it at hospitals.

quote:

I can easily see another administration using similar scientific based arguments for more draconian measures. The Green New Deal is one that I can see being implemented in the same fashion. After all, 90% of all scientist agree so we have to do it to stop climate change!



You do realize the federal govt has not put forth any mandates on this, right? It's all up to the states. Now, the mixed messages from this administration haven't helped, but any stay at home directive is all coming from state or local government bodies.
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
61505 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 1:35 pm to
quote:

I'm not letting you leave the house because you might infect someone else or yourself thus killing them or you and overwhelming our medical system. (53 dead in two months)

I'm not letting you leave the house because you might hit someone else or yourself thus killing them or you and overwhelming our medical system. (180 dead in two months on average)

It's the exact same argument.


Then why are there speed limits when you drive?
Posted by BuckFama334
Central Alabama
Member since Aug 2018
1826 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 2:13 pm to
You guys have totally derailed my shite on Gus thread...
Posted by Aubie Spr96
lolwut?
Member since Dec 2009
41031 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

It's not even close. If the quarantine wasn't in place, that 53 would grow exponentially. It's low because people are actually starting to pay attention and stay at home so they can actually manage it at hospitals.



You've assumed something here. You've assumed that this couldn't have been done voluntarily. That people are too stupid to make their own decisions and need to be forced into action.

So, lets compare what Arkansas did to what we've done and look at their results to ours:

AR: 930 cases with 16 dead. Total population: 3.0 million people.
AL: 2009 cases with 53 dead. Total population: 4.9 million people.

Alabama: Total lock down.
Arkansas:

quote:

For Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, his targeted actions to slow the virus are intended to protect the thousands of people who would otherwise lose their jobs, including employees at clothing stores that have remained open.

“People are making their own decision to stay home, and that’s exactly what they should be doing, unless there’s an absolute necessity to get out,” Hutchinson said last week.


I'm amazed at the level of trust the gov't gets in an "emergency". I'm amazed at the willingness of people to give up their liberties for what they perceive as security.
Posted by AUjim
America
Member since Dec 2012
3660 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

I'm amazed at the level of trust the gov't gets in an "emergency"


I'll give you that for sure....

But the reality is, statistically there are just as many people with absolutely no symptoms that have it as there are with people who do. Those people can and do still spread it.

Like someone else said-New York is what happens when these things aren't mitigated.
Posted by 88TIger
Member since Nov 2012
2069 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 3:52 pm to
quote:

I go out and crash my car on 85, three other people don't get in a crash too. Not a very good comparison.
They do down here on 75 & 95 in Florida...Sometimes on the other side of the road because they were looking at the accident on the other side and get rear ended...just sayin...
Posted by 88TIger
Member since Nov 2012
2069 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 3:58 pm to
quote:

The Green New Deal is one that I can see being implemented in the same fashion. After all, 90% of all scientist agree so we have to do it to stop climate change!

The Green New Deal would be an environmental disaster. First off all the mining that would have to be done to get the materials for all of those wind farms, the bird populations that those wind farms would make extinct (many species are already being killed by the ones we have), then take all of the mining & shipping for storage of the electricity like batteries... You know they are not serious when talking about energy and getting off fossil fuels when they leave out nuclear power with all of the advancements that have been made.
Posted by 88TIger
Member since Nov 2012
2069 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

I and many of my peers in my age range(over 60) are the most vulnerable, and lately it has hit even the middle aged group.
I am near your that age bracket. Most of your age are vulnerable if you have underlying conditions. Many of your age group have had it and didn't have a problem with it or had it and didn't know it. People with underlying conditions are the ones that will have a problem with this. The media is drumming up stuff like saying the baby in Baton Rouge died due to COVID which is misleading. She was premature at 22 weeks but NBC ran with it like she contracted it but that wasn't the case. Babies born younger than 22 weeks have virtually no chance of survival. Babies born between 22 and 26 weeks will need lots of medical attention and have a high risk of permanent disability if they do survive.
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 4:14 pm
Posted by Aubie Spr96
lolwut?
Member since Dec 2009
41031 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 4:12 pm to
quote:

The Green New Deal would be an environmental disaster.



You've missed the point.


quote:

Do scientists agree on climate change?
Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97 percent – agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change. Most of the leading science organizations around the world have issued public statements expressing this, including international and U.S. science academies, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a whole host of reputable scientific bodies around the world. A list of these organizations is provided here.


NASA

quote:

Enact an emergency Green New Deal to turn the tide on climate change, revive the economy and make wars for oil obsolete. Initiate a WWII-scale national mobilization to halt climate change, the greatest threat to humanity in our history. Create 20 million jobs by transitioning to 100% clean renewable energy by 2030, and investing in public transit, sustainable (regenerative) agriculture, conservation and restoration of critical infrastructure, including ecosystems.


Green Party

Again, we've used scientists' predictions about what MIGHT happen regarding COVID-19. We've used that to suspend civil liberties and crush small businesses and personal savings all the while digging ourselves deeper into debt.

Is it really a stretch to think that another administration will use the same powers to push something else on us?
Posted by 88TIger
Member since Nov 2012
2069 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

You've missed the point.
No I was just ranting about a different point.

I agree with your principle about civil liberties and am mad about it. I disagree that all climate change is man made as they want to only point to single causal factors in their research but they have yet to explain the little ice age or the central warming of Europe back in the day or why Antarctica was at one point not covered in ice and those were caused by man? I am old enough to remember when they were claiming global cooling. I just say follow the money and you will see why they are doing it.

I believe that the current crisis is overblown by the media and some powers that be trying to mandate things that they want to do in some areas that are totally unrelated to the stay at home orders...should people who have underlying conditions take precautions? Sure but to put the economy on hold is another thing. THis should be stopped by 1 May in most areas but I still people gathering and spreading the virus so there is that but they may not know they have it...
Posted by TheJones
Member since Nov 2009
33272 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 4:32 pm to
quote:

You guys have totally derailed my shite on Gus thread...


Half this board only reads the thread title before commenting The other half finds the last couple of comments and picks things up from there.

Aubie Board 2020
Posted by awestruck
Member since Jan 2015
10922 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 4:59 pm to
I've hear ya big boy, this ain't nothing new, we've been dealing with deadly stuff all our lives and managed to do ok. Go out there and get you some. Don't just talk about it, prove us all wet behind the ears.

I'm sure your right. . . and if not you'll just be helping natural selection get one of the right ones.
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 5:43 pm
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
61505 posts
Posted on 4/8/20 at 6:05 am to
quote:

I'm amazed at the level of trust the gov't gets in an "emergency".



Actually, I am surprised at how many people want to fight everything. It seems that authority means nothing anymore. I am more amazed at how many people refuse to just take a simple time out for the betterment of everyone else.

Its not something the government was ready for. Its not something anyone was ready for. So you make adjustments, then you move on. As long as everyone fights what needs to be done, it will take longer for everyone to get back on track

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