re: SOG Scoring Predictive Model Prelim : #4 LSU vs #1 Alabama

I hope we score first drive,
Tua keeps his 0 INT streak,
And Saban pulls him before the 4th,
Just so we can see the melt.


I want the legend of no 4th qtr stats to live on.

No where to ask , is it true Tia said the offence has a long ways to go. Executive was bad. I prise it will improve?

100%

I look forward to seeing Alabama run their Base Defense against LSU's run. I think we will see a stronger front than we've seen in other games this year where we were in nickel or dime.

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No one has held us under 30 in the first half. 31 for an entire game would be something.

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Not saying you won't but LSU hasn't given up a 1st qtr TD all year either. Really looking forward to the matchup of this LSU D vs your O...especially your qb/wrs vs lsu's secondary. Strength on strength. I love it.

I give y'all an overall edge on O vs our D and a pretty significant edge on our O vs y'alls D. Special teams is a large edge in our direction as well as home field (I know y'all have had massive success in this area but the last beatdown y'all put on us in BR was in 2002). As I said in my thread, I expect y'all to win...something to the tune of 34-24.

IF we are going to use 3-4 formation a lot, then I would expect Jenning to be on the field a lot. This would be perfect game for Terell Lewis.. because he would've made Joe life miserable. WE know that Burrow isn't a runner, I suspect we'll see lot of corner blitzes from Carter, Smith, etc. We just gotta blitz nonstop all night long.

Damn hate to see that prediction Lsu putting up 19 on MSU which has one of, if not the best defenses in SEC. State held them to FGs but it could have easily turned into 30 plus points. Worries me some. I am a natural worrier though . If our offense is clicking we will be good

Their only TD came on a two yard drive because of a INT return.

The key to this game is to use the same shock and awe approach we’ve used all season: score early, score often. I’m afraid we won’t as Saban has a tendency to come out very cautious and tentative in big games, playing conservative to avoid a mistake.

If we are able to build a 2-3 score lead, begin relying more on the run game to keep our defense off the field and put more pressure on 7SU to turn to Burrows arm to get back in the game. We need to be able to run the ball effectively in this game moreso than in any other game we play. It plays away from their strength on the back 7 of their D and keeps them from playing keepaway and wearing down our own D. It would also allow us to get Tua off the field as I worry about wear and tear on him.

We’ve got to ride the offense’s capability to be balanced or we increase 7SU’s chances with all other facets of the game. IMHO, we have a big edge on O, the D’s are pretty much a draw even though in different ways: their back 7 is better but our front 7 is better. Special teams belongs to them except maybe for punt returns but it’s easy to neutralize our advantage with Waddle with sky punts and punts away from him.

Just a quick additional one : This model does 2 things

(1) For Passing figures, it is only Tua's numbers for the Bama Offense Passing
(2) For Rushing, it removes the 4th quarter - only numbers from the first 3 qtrs



#1 Alabama (8-0) at #4 LSU (7-1)
7 PM CST, CBS

Vegas Stats
TBD


STANDARD Prediction
Alabama - 33.6
LSU - 19.7
Margin - Alabama +13.9

Alabama
Rushing Offense : 194 yards on 5.04 YPA (39 rushes)
Passing Offense : 311 yards on 9.94 YPA (31 passes)
Total Offense : 505 yards on 7.23 YPP (70 plays)
15.02 Yards Per Point

LSU
Rushing Offense : 123 yards on 2.94 YPA (42 rushes)
Passing Offense : 174 yards on 6.39 YPA (27 passes)
Total Offense : 297 yards on 4.30 YPP (69 plays)
15.10 Yards Per Point


Our Yards Per Rush average jumps from 4.91 to 5.44 when you remove the 4th qtr of just running out the clock. That's the difference from a good rush team to a really really good rush team right there.


Both teams YPP as a % of Opponents Total P5 Averages
Alabama Rush Offense : 124% (Opp Avg 4.39 vs Bama Avg vs Them 5.44, +1.05 YPA)
Alabama Pass Offense : 142% (OA 8.64 vs BA 12.29, +3.65 YPA)

Alabama Rush Defense : 72% (OA 3.96 vs BA 2.86, -1.10 YPA)
Alabama Pass Defense : 86% (OA 7.43 vs BA 6.38, -1.05 YPA)



LSU Rush Offense : 99% (OA 4.22 vs LSUA 4.17, -0.05 YPA)
LSU Pass Offense : 110% (OA 6.21 vs LSUA 6.83, +0.62 YPA)

LSU Rush Defense : 88% (OA 4.79 vs LSUA 4.19, -0.60 YPA)
LSU Pass Defense : 76% (OA 7.60 vs LSUA 5.77, -1.83 YPA)