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SOG Scoring Predictive Model Prelim : #4 LSU vs #1 Alabama
Posted on 10/21/18 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 10/21/18 at 4:36 pm
First, recap of Tennessee. Predictions in italics/actual in bold. Basically the INT return for TD by the Vols and the fumble sack that led to a quick score for us was the difference.
Magic SOG Prediction Machine
Alabama - 52.8
Tennessee - 14.6
Margin - Alabama +38.2
Alabama - 58
Tennessee - 21
Margin - Alabama +37
Alabama
Rushing Offense : 219 yards on 5.46 YPA (218 yards on 5.19 YPA)
Passing Offense : 383 yards on 14.18 YPA (327 yards on 10.2 YPA)
Total Offense : 601 yards on 8.98 YPP (545 yards on 7.36 YPP)
Tennessee
Rushing Offense : 59 yards on 1.53 YPA (31 yards on 1.03 YPA)
Passing Offense : 193 yards on 7.38 YPA (227 yards on 9.1 YPA)
Total Offense : 252 yards on 3.88 YPP (258 yards on 4.69 YPP)
On to LSU. I'll do a revised one next week as the numbers will change with other games this weekend.
#1 Alabama (8-0) at #4 LSU (7-1)
7 PM CST, CBS
Vegas Stats
TBD
STANDARD Prediction
Alabama - 30.8
LSU - 19.7
Margin - Alabama +11.1
Alabama
Rushing Offense : 174 yards on 4.51 YPA (39 rushes)
Passing Offense : 289 yards on 9.23 YPA (31 passes)
Total Offense : 463 yards on 6.62 YPP (70 plays)
15.02 Yards Per Point
LSU
Rushing Offense : 123 yards on 2.94 YPA (42 rushes)
Passing Offense : 174 yards on 6.39 YPA (27 passes)
Total Offense : 297 yards on 4.30 YPP (69 plays)
15.10 Yards Per Point
Both teams YPP as a % of Opponents Total P5 Averages
Alabama Rush Offense : 112% (Opp Avg 4.39 vs Bama Avg vs Them 4.91, +0.52 YPA)
Alabama Pass Offense : 147% (OA 8.65 vs BA 12.68, +4.04 YPA)
Alabama Rush Defense : 72% (OA 3.96 vs BA 2.86, -1.10 YPA)
Alabama Pass Defense : 86% (OA 7.43 vs BA 6.38, -1.05 YPA)
LSU Rush Offense : 99% (OA 4.22 vs LSUA 4.17, -0.05 YPA)
LSU Pass Offense : 110% (OA 6.21 vs LSUA 6.83, +0.62 YPA)
LSU Rush Defense : 88% (OA 4.79 vs LSUA 4.19, -0.60 YPA)
LSU Pass Defense : 76% (OA 7.60 vs LSUA 5.77, -1.83 YPA)
Magic SOG Prediction Machine
Alabama - 52.8
Tennessee - 14.6
Margin - Alabama +38.2
Alabama - 58
Tennessee - 21
Margin - Alabama +37
Alabama
Rushing Offense : 219 yards on 5.46 YPA (218 yards on 5.19 YPA)
Passing Offense : 383 yards on 14.18 YPA (327 yards on 10.2 YPA)
Total Offense : 601 yards on 8.98 YPP (545 yards on 7.36 YPP)
Tennessee
Rushing Offense : 59 yards on 1.53 YPA (31 yards on 1.03 YPA)
Passing Offense : 193 yards on 7.38 YPA (227 yards on 9.1 YPA)
Total Offense : 252 yards on 3.88 YPP (258 yards on 4.69 YPP)
On to LSU. I'll do a revised one next week as the numbers will change with other games this weekend.
#1 Alabama (8-0) at #4 LSU (7-1)
7 PM CST, CBS
Vegas Stats
TBD
STANDARD Prediction
Alabama - 30.8
LSU - 19.7
Margin - Alabama +11.1
Alabama
Rushing Offense : 174 yards on 4.51 YPA (39 rushes)
Passing Offense : 289 yards on 9.23 YPA (31 passes)
Total Offense : 463 yards on 6.62 YPP (70 plays)
15.02 Yards Per Point
LSU
Rushing Offense : 123 yards on 2.94 YPA (42 rushes)
Passing Offense : 174 yards on 6.39 YPA (27 passes)
Total Offense : 297 yards on 4.30 YPP (69 plays)
15.10 Yards Per Point
Both teams YPP as a % of Opponents Total P5 Averages
Alabama Rush Offense : 112% (Opp Avg 4.39 vs Bama Avg vs Them 4.91, +0.52 YPA)
Alabama Pass Offense : 147% (OA 8.65 vs BA 12.68, +4.04 YPA)
Alabama Rush Defense : 72% (OA 3.96 vs BA 2.86, -1.10 YPA)
Alabama Pass Defense : 86% (OA 7.43 vs BA 6.38, -1.05 YPA)
LSU Rush Offense : 99% (OA 4.22 vs LSUA 4.17, -0.05 YPA)
LSU Pass Offense : 110% (OA 6.21 vs LSUA 6.83, +0.62 YPA)
LSU Rush Defense : 88% (OA 4.79 vs LSUA 4.19, -0.60 YPA)
LSU Pass Defense : 76% (OA 7.60 vs LSUA 5.77, -1.83 YPA)
This post was edited on 10/21/18 at 4:43 pm
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Posted on 10/21/18 at 4:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The YPP predictions have proven to be extremely accurate the last 2 seasons. Not every game, obviously, but in general the picture painted by them usually plays out to norms. Especially with 2 teams who have pretty predictable performances through 6-7 games vs P5 teams like Alabama and LSU.
As usual, the disclaimer is that the following things can drastically change the score.
- Non offensive TDs
- Turnover Margins large either way
- Settling for field goals instead of TDs
- Massive advantages in field position
- Missing scoring opportunities on long drives all together
- A massively different gameplan that ends up passing or running much more than the norms (these are based on YPP rush/pass and # of plays on average throughout the year in each)
So, overuse of the word massive, but it happens and usually they are big things like that that throw the YPP = Points equations out the window.
As usual, the disclaimer is that the following things can drastically change the score.
- Non offensive TDs
- Turnover Margins large either way
- Settling for field goals instead of TDs
- Massive advantages in field position
- Missing scoring opportunities on long drives all together
- A massively different gameplan that ends up passing or running much more than the norms (these are based on YPP rush/pass and # of plays on average throughout the year in each)
So, overuse of the word massive, but it happens and usually they are big things like that that throw the YPP = Points equations out the window.
This post was edited on 10/21/18 at 4:54 pm
Posted on 10/21/18 at 4:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Bama has to get to at least 34 and can Bama stop LSU from having real success running the football. No doubt LSU is the best team Bama has played.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 4:57 pm to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
quote:
Bama stop LSU from having real success running the football
We're a very good rush defense and LSU is an average rush offense whose only big time running success was against Ole Miss and late in the game against a worn down Georgia. I'd be shocked if they ran the football well against us. We fret about the rush defense because our standard is quite literally "GOAT" rush defenses, but the only 2 games we've let teams beat their averages were Texas A&M (entirely because of 2 long QB runs) and Arkansas (see below re: Arkansas game).
quote:
Bama has to get to at least 34
Why? LSU won't score 30 unless they score on special teams or turnovers. They scored 33 vs Miami and 30 vs UGA, both assisted by turnovers.
We've given up 30 1 time all season (31 to Arkansas in a random game with funky formational blowups).
quote:
No doubt LSU is the best team Bama has played
No doubt - by far the best defense and also the best all around team with room to spare. Their offense is the 3rd or 4th best we've played, though.
This post was edited on 10/21/18 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 10/21/18 at 4:59 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Closer than I’d like but they do have a good defense so points will be more of a luxury.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 5:01 pm to CrimsonBoz
quote:
Closer than I’d like but they do have a good defense so points will be more of a luxury.
I will add I actually removed the Arkansas game from our Pass Offense data because it skews things so much. We averaged 22 YPA that game LOLOL.
It should probably stay in, but I'd rather be cautious than not.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 5:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Probably a good idea. I think the game is closer but we win by 2-3 TD’s. More of a make you wait game than anything.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 5:12 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I am actually curious to see if your prediction model doesn't show that MSU will be our toughest test of the year.
I was fairly confident they might be until that abysmal showing last night on offense against LSU.
I was fairly confident they might be until that abysmal showing last night on offense against LSU.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 5:14 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
I am actually curious to see if your prediction model doesn't show that MSU will be our toughest test of the year.
I might run that later this week. My guess would be that it shoots out a score of something like 27-7.
State's performance vs averages is basically the same as LSU's (and ours). Their rush defense gave up 4.87 to Kentucky, 3.47 to Florida and 4.29 to Auburn. LSU's offense was atrocious on Saturday, even taking into account State's defense.
This post was edited on 10/21/18 at 5:16 pm
Posted on 10/21/18 at 5:21 pm to SummerOfGeorge
A&M could be the best team we play all year. LSU hasn't had to play Clemson and Bama so far this year.
A&M should have beaten Clemson. I disagree that LSU is by far the best team Bama has played.
A&M should have beaten Clemson. I disagree that LSU is by far the best team Bama has played.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 5:26 pm to remaster916
quote:I agree. A&m is definitely better on the lines than lsu, and I think a&m is going to beat lsu
A&M could be the best team we play all year. LSU hasn't had to play Clemson and Bama so far this year.
A&M should have beaten Clemson. I disagree that LSU is by far the best team Bama has played.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 5:30 pm to remaster916
Agree - A&M could definitely end up being our 2nd best opponent.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 5:53 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Scoring 30 on LSU in Tiger Stadium would be like score 50 elsewhere.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 5:54 pm to FairhopeTider
quote:
Scoring 30 on LSU in Tiger Stadium would be like score 50 elsewhere.
As you so perfectly said a few weeks ago, LSU in Baton Rouge is the constant. If we score more than 25 in Death Valley this team is going to score 40 a game the rest of the year.
This post was edited on 10/21/18 at 5:56 pm
Posted on 10/21/18 at 6:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I will add I actually removed the Arkansas game from our Pass Offense data because it skews things so much. We averaged 22 YPA that game LOLOL.
It should probably stay in, but I'd rather be cautious than not.
LSU vs UGA might be somewhat of an outlier due to turnovers. LSU's scoring vs good defenses: 19 vs UF, 19 vs MSU, but 36 vs UGA. UGA threw two picks and lost two fumbles; no turnovers by LSU.
This post was edited on 10/21/18 at 6:08 pm
Posted on 10/21/18 at 6:04 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Don't forget to take out the rain from both teams. The LSU field crew have a job to repair the turf but they have two weeks.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 7:05 pm to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
quote:
Bama has to get to at least 34
you think LSU will score 33 points? I don't.
Posted on 10/21/18 at 8:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Thanks man
Posted on 10/21/18 at 8:08 pm to John Milner
Would be miraculous IMO if they did
Posted on 10/21/18 at 9:48 pm to John Milner
quote:
you think LSU will score 33 points? I don't.
I don’t think they will but I think scoring 30+ puts pressure on Burrow and forces LSU out of their gameplan.
The key to this game for UA is to prevent LSU from turning this into slugfest where they try to hog the ball.
This post was edited on 10/21/18 at 9:50 pm
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