re: SOG Scoring Predictive Model Prelim : #4 LSU vs #1 Alabama

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Saw on Twitter early Vegas line is Bama-14

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STANDARD Prediction
Alabama - 33.6
LSU - 19.7
Margin - Alabama +13.9

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Vegas is using SummerofGeorge's prediction machine to set the line.

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SummerOfGeorge

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Seem to recall you doing a best and worse case scenario for games before.

Any chance you could run those numbers and add them to this thread?

I understand the hesitancy putting it in there, but it did happen, and it wasn’t a fluke, and Arkansas isn’t THAT bad on defense. They avg the exact same ypp allowed as Ohio State, and if you take our game out they would be 59th in ypp.

I’d at least include it in best case scenario.

Also, I appreciate these threads and love that you do it. Don’t want to sound demanding and unappreciative.

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understand the hesitancy putting it in there, but it did happen, and it wasn’t a fluke, and Arkansas isn’t THAT bad on defense. They avg the exact same ypp allowed as Ohio State, and if you take our game out they would be 59th in ypp.

I’d at least include it in best case scenario.

Also, I appreciate these threads and love that you do it. Don’t want to sound demanding and unappreciative.

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Hey, no issues here. I appreciate it.

I also agree with you. It's really for myself just trying to temper my expectations.

However, the stats are the stats.

Schematically I expect LSU to try to pressure Tua. Seems like we haven't faced a defense that went super aggressive with blitz.

I'd love to see us have some screen packages with Jacobs if they try to go that route. Our biggest potential weakness I see would be not converting inside the red zone. We just have too many weapons to be consistently stopped in the open field.

I don't expect LSU to be able to bring pressure without blitzing and I don't expect them to be able to shut down our RB's without stacking the box.

LSU keeps the game competitive if they can stay positive in the run game to keep short third downs, and have clock killing drives. Convert red zone opportunities into TD's, and force Bama to settle for FGs.

Bama has been waiting on a big stage and we get one. I think you'll see new wrinkles and sharp execution and LSU is going to struggle once they are chasing 2 scores. This one is going to be a blowout.

I wonder if there is over or under on #of sacks Joe will have in the game?