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re: Prediction Model - Alabama/Auburn (Mac Jonnnnnnnnnes Edition)
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:38 am to IB4bama
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:38 am to IB4bama
quote:
. So far with Mac, we have played in a box. Only short safe passes and mostly to the sidelines or just a screen pass, which he doesnt complete very well.
I went back and looked at Arkansas and even though their defense sucks Mac played well in that game. Alabama's offense even with Tua this year has been a lot of quick throws to get our dynamic WRs the ball early and let them work in space. Mac was largely quick and accurate on those throws. The 40 yard TD to Jeudy was all in the air and showed Mac at least has the ability to hit the bomb over the top if it is there.
I think physically Mac is fine. His arm looks comparable to McCarron to me and stronger than McElroy. In the Auburn game it is going to be dealing with pressure and decision making that I'll be worried about. Our Oline has to play out of their minds to give Mac time and we need to run the ball.
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Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:44 am to SummerOfGeorge
With our terrible luck this season, Bo Nix will have the game of his life.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:51 am to SummerOfGeorge
I fully expect Bo Nix to be Joe Burrow II against us.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 10:14 am to JackieTreehorn
I don’t think Nix is especially good, and I don’t think he’ll do anything completely abnormal against us. He’ll make a few throws, and he’ll beat us with his legs some. He’ll also be pretty inaccurate. But I don’t see them scoring more than 21-24 max.
That might be enough though, considering we don’t really know how Mac will perform.
Edit- I’ll be an optimist and go with 27-17 Alabama.
That might be enough though, considering we don’t really know how Mac will perform.
Edit- I’ll be an optimist and go with 27-17 Alabama.
This post was edited on 11/19/19 at 10:21 am
Posted on 11/19/19 at 10:33 am to Vestigial Morgan
quote:
It's his show now 100% I think we see another level of personal advancement from Mac
Posted on 11/19/19 at 10:36 am to Crede15
quote:
I don’t think Nix is especially good, and I don’t think he’ll do anything completely abnormal against us. He’ll make a few throws, and he’ll beat us with his legs some. He’ll also be pretty inaccurate. But I don’t see them scoring more than 21-24 max.
Same. I think that because many of us are pushing the narrative that he will somehow turn to John Elway against us, he will probably play within his normal capacity. It usually happens when we don't expect it.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 10:41 am to Crede15
Nix is trash and I don’t necessarily think it’s a given that he’s the messiah that some AU people are saying he will be. It’s not like he’s got this amazing raw talent that just needs to be refined. He’s got a lot of flaws. Think about Fromm, Tua, Lawrence, or Fields as freshmen. You could see the talent there. I’d could be a good QB one day but I don’t think his ceiling is anywhere near where those guys are. I’ve been wrong before though....especially about Auburn.
But Nix doesn’t need to be those guys in two weeks. If we let them rush the ball succesfully and our offense sputters around, then he just needs to be serviceable. Like you said, 24 is probably their ceiling but that could probably be enough to win it.
But Nix doesn’t need to be those guys in two weeks. If we let them rush the ball succesfully and our offense sputters around, then he just needs to be serviceable. Like you said, 24 is probably their ceiling but that could probably be enough to win it.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 11:05 am to Vestigial Morgan
quote:
ETA. There are people that think Tua was a product of the receiving corp...Bama still has them and Najee amd Robinson running and catching
That is a hot take by LSU fans on the Rant. We still have the best WR corps in the country and Najee is probably one if not the best receiving RBs in the country. If Mack can just get the ball where the guys can make a play I like our chances.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 11:33 am to 14&Counting
quote:
If Mack can just get the ball where the guys can make a play I like our chances.
If Mack can get them the ball, then I think that we win easily. Its going to be all about getting favorable matchups against their DBs, and keeping Mac relatively clean. It will be a lot of fun to watch if we can do these things.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 11:42 am to Funky Tide 8
I agree with most all of the responses in this thread
- Nix isn't good and Auburn's run offense isn't good. However, with our injuries and youth they are probably good enough for 20-24 points. That could be enough.
- Our offense is not going to be able to play conservative inside the box where we do nothing but jet sweeps, WR screens and swing routes. I also don't expect us to.
Also, I want to add that Auburn's front 7 is devastating against the run, but they aren't an elite pass rush team. They are good, and they collapse the pocket, but their big guys are up front aren't Chase Young or even Q. Williams types. They are pocket collapsers.
I'd love to see us do creative stuff with Waddle in this game. Motioning him in and out of the backfield to get head starts on swings and mess with coverage assignments as the defense tries to get out in front of that head start has been really positive recently. I'd love to see more of that.
- Nix isn't good and Auburn's run offense isn't good. However, with our injuries and youth they are probably good enough for 20-24 points. That could be enough.
- Our offense is not going to be able to play conservative inside the box where we do nothing but jet sweeps, WR screens and swing routes. I also don't expect us to.
Also, I want to add that Auburn's front 7 is devastating against the run, but they aren't an elite pass rush team. They are good, and they collapse the pocket, but their big guys are up front aren't Chase Young or even Q. Williams types. They are pocket collapsers.
I'd love to see us do creative stuff with Waddle in this game. Motioning him in and out of the backfield to get head starts on swings and mess with coverage assignments as the defense tries to get out in front of that head start has been really positive recently. I'd love to see more of that.
This post was edited on 11/19/19 at 12:16 pm
Posted on 11/19/19 at 12:14 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Your computer model doesn't take into account how Bo Nix will inexplicably have pinpoint accuracy all day, when he hasn't shown it all season
I'm not sure if this makes you feel any better but if Nix were accurate vs LSU he'd have thrown 3 more interceptions. His inaccuracy saved him from his poor decision making.
So even if he is accurate, he still has to overcome his decision making as well.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 12:26 pm to elposter
I do agree that we have made a lot of big plays off of short slant passes--until we played lsu. They got in our face and took those away from Tua, and IMO was part of the slow start. Most of our scores against lsu were from long passes and a few medium range passes. And that mostly happened in the last quarter and a half of the game. I just dont think the barn is going to let us throw easy slant passes.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 1:51 pm to IB4bama
quote:
I do agree that we have made a lot of big plays off of short slant passes--until we played lsu. They got in our face and took those away from Tua, and IMO was part of the slow start. Most of our scores against lsu were from long passes and a few medium range passes. And that mostly happened in the last quarter and a half of the game. I just dont think the barn is going to let us throw easy slant passes.
Well hopefully Sark adjusts assuming AU will try to take away the short stuff. Containing AU's Dline on longer developing passing plays doesn't sound appealing. Sark is going to have to earn his paycheck in the Iron Bowl.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 1:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I just haven't seen it with Mac.
If we win, Saban probably pulls him and puts in Taulia and he shocks the world like big bro did two years ago.
If we win, Saban probably pulls him and puts in Taulia and he shocks the world like big bro did two years ago.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 4:00 am to phil4bama
quote:
However, there’s nothing in your model that can account for the intensity, the precision, the plain, dumb Auburn luck they will bring to this game.
I know a lot of people like to point out how more intense Auburn likes to play in Jordan-Hare, but that's only when they have something to play for. In 2013 and 2017, they were playing the game for a spot in the SEC Championship Game/National Championship Game. This year...they're 8-3 with nothing left to play for but pride and a decent bowl game.
We actually have more motivation to show out and play ball this year than they do, because we need to win and win big to have any chance at accomplishing our goals this season.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 6:17 am to RollTide1987
quote:
We actually have more motivation to show out and play ball this year than they do, because we need to win and win big to have any chance at accomplishing our goals this season.
Why does this make me just feel worse?
Oh yeah, I recall 2009, last minute TD needed.
and 2015 having to sustain a 4th quarter drive
Posted on 11/20/19 at 6:48 am to YStar
I’m not so sure about that.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 9:08 am to East Coast Band
quote:
Your computer model doesn't take into account how Bo Nix will inexplicably have pinpoint accuracy all day, when he hasn't shown it all season
Posted on 11/20/19 at 9:09 am to RollTide1987
quote:
I know a lot of people like to point out how more intense Auburn likes to play in Jordan-Hare, but that's only when they have something to play for. In 2013 and 2017, they were playing the game for a spot in the SEC Championship Game/National Championship Game. This year...they're 8-3 with nothing left to play for but pride and a decent bowl game.
This is their Super Bowl. They will be up to play without question.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 9:20 am to YStar
quote:
I just haven't seen it with Mac.
If we win, Saban probably pulls him and puts in Taulia and he shocks the world like big bro did two years ago.
One thing for sure is Sark is going to have to prove he is a good OC. I don't think he ever was a great one even at SC, but let's see if he is a good one.
Proof will be in the pudding if the offense is good these next 3 games. At Alabama with all the talent , even 2nd, 3rd string talent, we should put up good numbers.
Again, just want good, great would be a bonus!
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