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Prediction Model - Alabama/Auburn (Mac Jonnnnnnnnnes Edition)
Posted on 11/18/19 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 11/18/19 at 4:36 pm
Ok - so I will preface this by saying this is clearly much more flimsy than even usual. For Alabama's offense my constant's are : 2nd half Tennessee, Arkansas, 2nd half Mississippi State. They aren't the best because Tennessee was kind of a frantic hold on to things situation and State was post-Tua injury and then kind of a blowout situation. But, along with the Arkansas game, it's all we have. Keep in mind these are our stats compared to the opponents average stats against, so while Arkansas is awful we are comparing how Alabama did vs Arkansas to how all the other P5 teams they played did against Arkansas.
For Yards Per Point (how to translate total yards to score), I really just picked what seemed like a reasonable and conservative number - something that would rank 30th in the NCAA.
Also, at this point in the year I generally remove the first month of the season entirely. Teams performances over the last 2/3 of a season are generally MUCH more predictive of their last few games of a season while the first month is generally not nearly as much so.
So, anyway, here we go.
Auburn vs Alabama
ALABAMA : 23
AUBURN : 16
Alabama Offense
Total : 323 yards, 65 plays, 4.97 YPP
Rush : 138 yards, 35 attempts, 3.94 YPA
Pass : 185 yards, 30 attempts, 6.16 YPA
Yards Per Point : 14.06
Auburn Offense
Total : 282 yards, 68 plays, 4.15 YPP
Rush : 148 yards, 40 attempts, 3.71 YPA
Pass : 134 yards, 28 attempts, 4.78 YPA
Yards Per Point : 17.91
Their last 3 games Auburn's offense has had less YPA in both passing and rushing than their opponents season averages.
Rushing - Auburn YPA vs Opponent Avg (Diff)
LSU : 3.94 vs 4.72 (-0.78)
Ole Miss : 3.63 vs 4.07 (-0.44)
Georgia : 2.30 vs 3.24 (-0.94)
Passing - Auburn YPA vs Opponent Avg (Diff)
LSU : 4.40 vs 8.18 (-3.78)
Ole Miss : 7.70 vs 8.62 (-0.92)
Georgia : 4.90 vs 5.44 (-0.54)
Auburn has only broken 4+ YPC in 1 of their last 5 games, and that was against Arkansas.
Bo Nix vs Top 30 SP+ Defenses (Georgia, Florida, Oregon, LSU, Texas A&M)
> 81/163 (49.7%)
> 165 YPG
> 5.06 YPA
> 6 TD/6 INT
For Yards Per Point (how to translate total yards to score), I really just picked what seemed like a reasonable and conservative number - something that would rank 30th in the NCAA.
Also, at this point in the year I generally remove the first month of the season entirely. Teams performances over the last 2/3 of a season are generally MUCH more predictive of their last few games of a season while the first month is generally not nearly as much so.
So, anyway, here we go.
Auburn vs Alabama
ALABAMA : 23
AUBURN : 16
Alabama Offense
Total : 323 yards, 65 plays, 4.97 YPP
Rush : 138 yards, 35 attempts, 3.94 YPA
Pass : 185 yards, 30 attempts, 6.16 YPA
Yards Per Point : 14.06
Auburn Offense
Total : 282 yards, 68 plays, 4.15 YPP
Rush : 148 yards, 40 attempts, 3.71 YPA
Pass : 134 yards, 28 attempts, 4.78 YPA
Yards Per Point : 17.91
Their last 3 games Auburn's offense has had less YPA in both passing and rushing than their opponents season averages.
Rushing - Auburn YPA vs Opponent Avg (Diff)
LSU : 3.94 vs 4.72 (-0.78)
Ole Miss : 3.63 vs 4.07 (-0.44)
Georgia : 2.30 vs 3.24 (-0.94)
Passing - Auburn YPA vs Opponent Avg (Diff)
LSU : 4.40 vs 8.18 (-3.78)
Ole Miss : 7.70 vs 8.62 (-0.92)
Georgia : 4.90 vs 5.44 (-0.54)
Auburn has only broken 4+ YPC in 1 of their last 5 games, and that was against Arkansas.
Bo Nix vs Top 30 SP+ Defenses (Georgia, Florida, Oregon, LSU, Texas A&M)
> 81/163 (49.7%)
> 165 YPG
> 5.06 YPA
> 6 TD/6 INT
This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 4:37 pm
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Posted on 11/18/19 at 4:37 pm to SummerOfGeorge
TL/DR - Their offense has struggled against defenses worse than ours. Our defense has played well against offenses similar to theirs. If all our guys are healthy (big if with Davis/Dale) I very much expect us to hold their offense down.
The other side of the ball? I have no frickin clue.
The other side of the ball? I have no frickin clue.
This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 4:39 pm
Posted on 11/18/19 at 4:49 pm to SummerOfGeorge
If we can somehow pull this off, it will go down as my favorite IB win ever.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 5:13 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Your computer model doesn't take into account how Bo Nix will inexplicably have pinpoint accuracy all day, when he hasn't shown it all season
Posted on 11/18/19 at 5:28 pm to East Coast Band
His accuracy doesn't concern me nearly as much as how he will channel his inner Johnny Manziel when the pocket breaks down.
IMO, that's going to be the defensive key to the game. If we can keep him from converting 3rd and longs with his feet, Auburn will not have offensive success.
On the other side of the ball, I'll be shocked if Steele doesn't bring the heat every single snap. If Mac and the Oline can handle that, our receivers will break some slants for big gains. If he can't it ain't going to end well.
IMO, that's going to be the defensive key to the game. If we can keep him from converting 3rd and longs with his feet, Auburn will not have offensive success.
On the other side of the ball, I'll be shocked if Steele doesn't bring the heat every single snap. If Mac and the Oline can handle that, our receivers will break some slants for big gains. If he can't it ain't going to end well.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 5:34 pm to AlbertMeansWell
quote:
If we can somehow pull this off, it will go down as my favorite IB win ever.
I'm guessing you aren't old enough to remember 1984 when 4-6 Alabama and Paul Ott Carruth took down a IIRC top-10 Auburn team with Bo Jackson and Brett Fullwood in the backfield.
It was very, very sweet.
This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 5:35 pm
Posted on 11/18/19 at 5:36 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Very flimsy 
Going to use an old saying “ hope for the best but expect the worst “
Going to use an old saying “ hope for the best but expect the worst “
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:02 pm to Bear88
I love your models George and it’s usually pretty close and does a good job. However, there’s nothing in your model that can account for the intensity, the precision, the plain, dumb Auburn luck they will bring to this game. Like a Mark Ingram fumble (Auburn luck part 1, he never fumbled) that rolls in a perfectly straight line down the sidelines, staying in bounds (dumb Auburn luck part 2, footballs are odd shaped and never roll in a straight line) until Auburn could recover it.
shite happens in this game that just defies logic. Yeah, I’ll admit it, I’m real damn nervous.
shite happens in this game that just defies logic. Yeah, I’ll admit it, I’m real damn nervous.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:09 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Our oline needs to play the game of their lives and Sark needs to call the game of his life. If we can someone neutralized AU’s monsters on the Dline we will be in good shape. Sark really needs to put Mac in a position to not have the ball in his hands very long. Have to keep the AU dline off balance.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:09 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Mac struggles in the first half. We go to halftime down 10-7.
Go three and out on the first drive of the 2nd half.
Taulia comes in down 13-7 with 10:58 left in the 3rd.
The rest is history.
Alabama wins 28-20
Go three and out on the first drive of the 2nd half.
Taulia comes in down 13-7 with 10:58 left in the 3rd.
The rest is history.
Alabama wins 28-20
Posted on 11/19/19 at 7:36 am to SummerOfGeorge
I’m going to be the curmudgeon again. Mac looked good against Arkansas but Arkansas has ended up being possibly the worst Power 5 team in recent memory. We’re asking Mac Jones to go into Jordan-Hare Stadium for his first “real” start and face a top shelf AU defense that has given other, more experienced QBs trouble. There’s also a good chance that he can’t rely on his own defense to bail him out. Mac will have to make plays because AU’s DL is going to disrupt things.
Yeah, Nix is trash and AU has some issues with their HC is possibly leaving, but I’m just not confident about a win down there.
Would for sure be a memorable win for us instead of just “relief.”
Yeah, Nix is trash and AU has some issues with their HC is possibly leaving, but I’m just not confident about a win down there.
Would for sure be a memorable win for us instead of just “relief.”
Posted on 11/19/19 at 7:42 am to SummerOfGeorge
We’ve had 1 consistently fun game in JHS in the Saban era. This one looks to be another 3.5 hours of discomfort hoping for 15 minutes of relief
This post was edited on 11/19/19 at 7:43 am
Posted on 11/19/19 at 8:01 am to SummerOfGeorge
We suck against running QBs. Auburn has a running QB.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 8:09 am to bamarep
quote:
We suck against accurate running QBs. Auburn doesn’t have an accurate running QB
FIFY
Also, every defense struggles with this type of player.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 8:12 am to bamarep
The problem for us is that if you play in a box, Auburn will shut you down. So far with Mac, we have played in a box. Only short safe passes and mostly to the sidelines or just a screen pass, which he doesnt complete very well. Auburn likes line up close to the line and try to play physical. They can be burned long, but they will grab and hold the receivers and give up a few 15 yard penalties to prevent a long pass. We need to let Mac open up a little this week and see if he can do anything other than very conservative passes. If we play in a box, it will be close and we will try a number of field goals. I dont see it working. The funny thing is that the barners are not sure they want to win because that will just extend the Gus bus.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 8:17 am to IB4bama
quote:
The problem for us is that if you play in a box, Auburn will shut you down. So far with Mac, we have played in a box. Only short safe passes and mostly to the sidelines or just a screen pass, which he doesnt complete very well. Auburn likes line up close to the line and try to play physical. They can be burned long, but they will grab and hold the receivers and give up a few 15 yard penalties to prevent a long pass. We need to let Mac open up a little this week and see if he can do anything other than very conservative passes. If we play in a box, it will be close and we will try a number of field goals. I dont see it working. The funny thing is that the barners are not sure they want to win because that will just extend the Gus bus.
This.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 8:25 am to bamarep
We sucked against 1 running QB. Plumley but so has everyone else. We basically shut down Mond, the kid from MSU, and the little running kid from SMU.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 8:26 am to IB4bama
The game plan will be out of everyone’s comfort zone. Can we execute is the main question. We aren’t going to toe to toe with the barn 7 we have to get creative and execute it.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:25 am to CrimsonBoz
In the past, Auburn has used D-line slants with LB run blitz off the back of the slants. That will likely kill our inside run game if they do it again. I am not sure how well out LG and center can handle that combo.
If auburn uses a modified version of that on a pass rush blitz, Mac best be unloading the ball quickly or Taulia will be seeing a good bit of action.
If auburn uses a modified version of that on a pass rush blitz, Mac best be unloading the ball quickly or Taulia will be seeing a good bit of action.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:31 am to SummerOfGeorge
I remember going to watch Mac play in HS (Bama Oline coach at the time was there) and I called my dad after the game and said...."this kid will never play a down in Tuscaloosa" i didn't think the arm strength was impressive and ...he looked like a skinny pine tree
Then the DUI and I thought ...spoiled kid from the Bolles school. he will transfer ...to a school that would be better suited to his talent level (i don't think i was alone in this thinking)
But I'll admit...there is a very valid reason I don't coach or scout football
Mac has impressed me with how far he has come. Physically and personally maturing.
Its one thing to be the starter but knowing you are still the fill in. It's his show now 100% I think we see another level of personal advancement from Mac
Two weeks of the increase in snaps...timing...confidence.
Im not doubting him again...Bama by 14
ETA. There are people that think Tua was a product of the receiving corp...Bama still has them and Najee amd Robinson running and catching
Then the DUI and I thought ...spoiled kid from the Bolles school. he will transfer ...to a school that would be better suited to his talent level (i don't think i was alone in this thinking)
But I'll admit...there is a very valid reason I don't coach or scout football
Mac has impressed me with how far he has come. Physically and personally maturing.
Its one thing to be the starter but knowing you are still the fill in. It's his show now 100% I think we see another level of personal advancement from Mac
Two weeks of the increase in snaps...timing...confidence.
Im not doubting him again...Bama by 14
ETA. There are people that think Tua was a product of the receiving corp...Bama still has them and Najee amd Robinson running and catching
This post was edited on 11/19/19 at 9:40 am
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