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re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave

Posted on 7/17/20 at 4:19 pm to
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63764 posts
Posted on 7/17/20 at 4:19 pm to
16% positive is pretty significant considering that number was in the 6's throughout June.
Posted by icheerforgeorgia
Member since Nov 2011
1808 posts
Posted on 7/17/20 at 5:53 pm to
This is an urban legend. Everyone is telling this story.
Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
27288 posts
Posted on 7/17/20 at 6:35 pm to
quote:

know this to be true,


No you don't

quote:

you test positive for the Virus, you cannot be tested again until 14 days


What?

I just saw the someone being interviewed who had 2 positive tests within 3 days.

quote:

So the person on here that is saying the same person got tested everyday and kept getting a positive which lead to 10 positives is not telling the truth.


Certainly not 10 but of read multiple stories of people having more than 1 positive test within 14 days.
Posted by RealDawg
Dawgville
Member since Nov 2012
9355 posts
Posted on 7/17/20 at 11:21 pm to
[/img]

China studies had the diagnosis to death at around 13 days average. There are also reporting delays (5 days used here).

The death curve is continuing to follow the % of tests positive.
This post was edited on 7/17/20 at 11:53 pm
Posted by MacDawg
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2015
359 posts
Posted on 7/18/20 at 10:32 pm to
quote:

Here is the problem with your positive numbers...

A lot of people who test positive are going back each day until they test negative.

I.E. My business partner had it and for 10 days straight he went to get tested. That is 10 positives to 1 negative being calculated.

They are not distinguishing that 1 person took it 10 times and had 10 positives. In his case that is 10 positives.

I can confirm this because my firm is managing the data warehouse that this info flows into.




As a finance professional that has been analyzing numbers my entire career, shite like this just makes me shake my head and say, WTF. The same with the story in Florida about people getting letters saying they tested positive when they never actually got tested because the wait in line was too long.

It means all the data is shite and cant be trusted and is therefore worthless. Garage in, garbage out. What a shite show.
This post was edited on 7/18/20 at 10:34 pm
Posted by Whiznot
Albany, GA
Member since Oct 2013
6994 posts
Posted on 7/19/20 at 7:23 am to
Credulity is a necessary requirement for successful finance professionals nowadays.
Posted by VoxDawg
Glory, Glory
Member since Sep 2012
59393 posts
Posted on 7/19/20 at 11:01 am to
I challenge the notion of #MuhSecondWave on principle, not just because it's all going away on Nov. 4, no matter how the election turns out, but because the premise is purely to instill fear in the population.

We don't say "we're looking at the 137th wave of the flu," we say "it's flu season.

Besides, influenza in its annual iterations is arguably more deadly than COVID-19, because the flu kills an average of 80k people WHEN WE HAVE A VACCINE.

The 130k number being thrown against the wall by the sky screamers every time Trump tweets about anything is utter horse shite, and we all know it.

They inflated the death toll to include practically anyone who didn't get murdered in the street (and maybe even then), the positive case numbers are totally ginned up, and it's all built on a foundation of elderly fatalities from 4-5 blue states where their Dem governors sent positive patients, knowing it would run rampant through their resident population.

Shall we address the people who were never tested getting letters saying their results were positive?
Posted by Whiznot
Albany, GA
Member since Oct 2013
6994 posts
Posted on 7/19/20 at 11:30 am to
The entire world is conspiring against the only strong president we've ever had. COVID is a global scam targeted at just one individual, probably because no one like the color orange.

All the refrigerated trucks sent to Texas and Arizona are fake morgues put up by republican governors who only pretend to love Trump. Don't fall for it.

I'm still trying to figure out why Trump keeps talking about treatments and vaccines for a hoax.
Posted by RocketDawg
Western Carolina
Member since Sep 2009
665 posts
Posted on 7/19/20 at 12:05 pm to
How the frick you know if people washing or not? They are a lot of nasty frickers on this planet just go to Wally World if you don’t believe me.
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63764 posts
Posted on 7/19/20 at 2:09 pm to
The fact hand sanitizer and handsoap was sold out for three months is an indication *most* people are washing and sanitizing *much more* than before virus. Do you really think I should have to find a peer reviewed scientific article to cite for this? You really are a dumb frick. You are the second dumb frick to question that point in OP. I ignored the first dumb frick because I thought he was a one-off outlier. Then here comes you.
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63764 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 10:24 am to
Gwinnett is officially online only learning this Fall. I wonder how that will work for a kindergartner.
Posted by S1C EM
Athens, GA
Member since Nov 2007
11585 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 12:32 pm to
quote:

16% positive is pretty significant considering that number was in the 6's throughout June.



So what's your stance, Rig? You seemed to be staunchly in the "it's no big deal" camp before. I'm a middle-ground guy. I've never thought it was the apocalypse, but it's also no joke. Precautions must be taken. I guess you saw where Gwinnett is going all online to start now. Barrow and Oconee holding board meetings tonight to discuss possible changes as well. The dominoes are falling.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25486 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 12:37 pm to
The 16% includes retests.

No one should have strong feelings because the data is so fricked.

I dont see any issue with "gut feelings" or predicting based upon a hunch. But relying on the data just feels like a shot in the dark.
Posted by S1C EM
Athens, GA
Member since Nov 2007
11585 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

The 16% includes retests.

No one should have strong feelings because the data is so fricked.

I dont see any issue with "gut feelings" or predicting based upon a hunch. But relying on the data just feels like a shot in the dark.



You may well be right, I don't really know. But you have to remember, retests were part of the 6%, too. The positive rate is up. There should be no question about that.

As for schools, they might as well all start online until they come up with a protocol for dealing with covid-positive students. Right now, sending the entire class and the teacher home for every class that a student was in is simply not sustainable. I don't know why people didn't see that coming. Either treat each case like you would the flu or start everyone online. There is no middle ground that involves sending entire classes home for two weeks at a time.

This post was edited on 7/20/20 at 12:50 pm
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63764 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

The 16% includes retests.



So did the 6% in June. It's still an apples to apples comparison.
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63764 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

So what's your stance, Rig? You seemed to be staunchly in the "it's no big deal" camp before. I'm a middle-ground guy. I've never thought it was the apocalypse, but it's also no joke. Precautions must be taken. I guess you saw where Gwinnett is going all online to start now. Barrow and Oconee holding board meetings tonight to discuss possible changes as well. The dominoes are falling.


I didn't expect to see three different strains of this in a 6 month period. I stand by the fact the Covid-19 March/April/May strain was a nothing burger. This third wave, too early to tell. It certainly is much more infectious, it is spreading so much faster than the previous one, and that's with so many more precautions we weren't using in Feb and early March.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25486 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 12:53 pm to
It is a daily number. I'm sure there were a lot of different percentages on the site in June. About 30 of them to be exact.
Posted by S1C EM
Athens, GA
Member since Nov 2007
11585 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 12:56 pm to
quote:

didn't expect to see three different strains of this in a 6 month period. I stand by the fact the Covid-19 March/April/May strain was a nothing burger. This third wave, too early to tell. It certainly is much more infectious, it is spreading so much faster than the previous one, and that's with so many more precautions we weren't using in Feb and early March.



Agreed. Nothing I've seen says it's more virulent, though.

A case in point on why we can't trust people to make good decisions at large: On Saturday night, the wife of our worship leader at my church (we haven't been since March) posted that she went to get tested, along with her two adult children. Do you think the worship leader stayed home the next day? Nope. Showed up and BELTED out tunes to a crowd of blue hairs. Can't make this shite up. I am livid as my in-laws have insisted on going back and did yesterday. Pastor was out of town, but my FIL has the power to call off meeting if needed and he knew of this situation. Afraid to pull the trigger and now who knows what will happen. And of course, they keep my kids while we work.

People are SO stupid.
This post was edited on 7/20/20 at 12:59 pm
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25486 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 12:56 pm to
I agree.

My gut tells me that what we are dealing with is more contagious than any rational measure can contain.

But it doesnt feel as deadly today than it did 2 months ago. Maybe better precautions are taken by elderly and compromised individuals. The spike in tests are most likely people living the dream and suffering bad symptoms for 10 days because of it.
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63764 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 12:56 pm to
June 5 to June 20 average was 6.6%.

July 4 to July 19 average is 13.8%


Good news is some lower day %'s have popped in recently and brought down that 16% I mentioned a couple days ago, and is hopefully flatlining at a peak before going back down, that would be the best case scenario.
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