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Whiznot
Georgia Fan
Albany, GA
Member since Oct 2013
4990 posts
 Online 

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
Case totals are tabulated by patient name and social security number. There should be no duplications.

The case total isn't a sum of all the daily positive tests. The daily test record is disassociated from patient identity.

Tests are one thing. Patients are something else entirely.



deeprig9
Member since Sep 2012
40268 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
Speaking of testing clusterfricks...

My wife got a test 11 days ago due to contact with positive coworker, and still doesn't have the result back.

11 days to get a result is unacceptable. What's the fricking point.



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deeprig9
Member since Sep 2012
40268 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
Whiznot, that is not true in the GA DPH data. I wish it was, but it isn't.


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Whiznot
Georgia Fan
Albany, GA
Member since Oct 2013
4990 posts
 Online 

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
quote:

That times a couple hundred or more people being tested daily can sku the heck out of stats


No it cannot. You are not understanding what is being measured. Think about it.


deeprig9
Member since Sep 2012
40268 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
Whiznot, you are still wrong. I have been tracking the ga dph data straight off their site since March. New positive test = new case, in their own words and nomenclature.


meansonny
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
11563 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
The numbers dont match today.

The daily confirmed cases are less than new test positives and significantly less than antibody positives.
Only 25% of that sum hit the daily confirmed cases.


deeprig9
Member since Sep 2012
40268 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
quote:

The numbers dont match today.

The daily confirmed cases are less than new test positives and significantly less than antibody positives.
Only 25% of that sum hit the daily confirmed cases.


False.

"New Cases" = 3441 today. Let's see how DPH gets to that number.

Total PCR plus Total Serology = 1,369,484

Yesterday that number was 1342006 ( didn't screenshot it yesterday, but I will tomorrow so you can see today's compared to tomorrows to better illustrate this. But it is in my spreadsheet).

1369484 minus 1342006 = 3441.









meansonny
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
11563 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
I'm pretty sure you aren't doing that correctly.

What does the difference in total tests today minus the total tests yesterday tell you?

It says nothing about positives. Only the number of tests completed the prior day.

Are you phrasing your point wrong?


deeprig9
Member since Sep 2012
40268 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
Look closer.


meansonny
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
11563 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
Per your screenshot, there are 3466 positive tests today. That alone is more than total cases today.

Add 3466 plus 10071 positive for antibodies, and the 3411 confirmed daily cases is only 25% of that number.

You might need to restate your formula.


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deeprig9
Member since Sep 2012
40268 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
Under the big red number, see the new case number. 3441



meansonny
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
11563 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
For starters

1369484 minus 1342006 equals 27,478.
Not 3441.


deeprig9
Member since Sep 2012
40268 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
If you follow and record it daily you'd understand why I X out that middle part. It will make more sense to you with tomorrow's screenshot.


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meansonny
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
11563 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
I see the math that you are trying to share.

129832 total positives plus 10071 antibody positives equals 129832.

133274 (yesterday's positive cases) minus 129832 is 3443.

I get it. There is no conspiracy when working cumulative numbers from 1 day to the next.

Dont you see that 3443 is less than the positive cases for today 3466? And that doesnt even take into account any antibody positives today that aren't illustrated on the site.


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deeprig9
Member since Sep 2012
40268 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
Thats right, haste error. That number is new tests overall, positive plus negative. I left off the additional calculation. I am not on desktop now so I can't illustrate, maybe later.


meansonny
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
11563 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
Alright. Let's test your theory.

For tomorrow, predict the total pcr/molecular tests.

Will it be 1178222 plus 23239?
Or will it be a lesser number that cuts out duplicates.

For tomorrow, predict the total number of positive tests?
Will it be 119761 plus 3441?
Or 119761 plus 3446?

We've got a good opportunity to test your theory.
This post was edited on 7/16 at 3:32 pm


DawgRff
Georgia Fan
Snellville Ga
Member since Jul 2012
4770 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave


S1C EM
Georgia Fan
Athens, GA
Member since Nov 2007
9323 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave




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10
Whiznot
Georgia Fan
Albany, GA
Member since Oct 2013
4990 posts
 Online 

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
Reporting units are instructed to submit both test data and case data. Our healthcare system is so fragmented that errors are inevitable. Reporting units are still having to send data by fax machine.

Check out the link below. Louisiana had to go back and correct some reporting data to eliminate duplicates. Every case is supposed to be a unique individual.

LDH reports 48,515 total COVID-19 cases after removing duplicates and out-of-state residents


chillmonster
Georgia Fan
Atlanta, GA
Member since Dec 2018
2984 posts

re: Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
For the same reason we shouldn't represent ourselves in court, we have to stop thinking we're smarter than professionals who do this for a living. There's no stupid political conspiracy to inflate the numbers.

What would be the point of double counting? It makes the data less usable.


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