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Posted on 2/3/21 at 6:58 pm to Hugh McElroy
I’ve learned not to doubt this staff! They know what they are doing.
Posted on 2/3/21 at 8:08 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Jimbo is clearly recruiting much better than Sumlin at the end of his tenure, but the point inflation going on with recruiting ratings make this sort of comparison pointless.
In 2015 and 2016 combined, only 2 classes had an average above 93.0. In 2021 alone, 5 schools topped 93.0, 3 topped 94.0 and Alabama topped 95
Posted on 2/3/21 at 8:20 pm to NanosTacoRun
Talent is becoming more and more centralized. The class we just had would have finished like 2nd a couple years ago. Now we have to fight off USC to finish 7th with an outside shot of finishing 6th
This post was edited on 2/3/21 at 8:21 pm
Posted on 2/3/21 at 8:38 pm to NanosTacoRun
quote:
In 2015 and 2016 combined, only 2 classes had an average above 93.0. In 2021 alone, 5 schools topped 93.0, 3 topped 94.0 and Alabama topped 95
That doesn’t show inflation necessarily. It shows that more and more talent nationally is going to fewer and fewer school. Glad we’ve become one of them!
Posted on 2/3/21 at 8:50 pm to WestCoastAg
I think that’s just the nature of being in Texas. Everyone is trying to come and take talent out of here
Posted on 2/3/21 at 9:41 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:
That doesn’t show inflation necessarily. It shows that more and more talent nationally is going to fewer and fewer school.
7 classes average 90+ in 2015
10 in 2016
13 in 2021
14 classes average 89+ in 2015
13 in 2016
17 in 2021
Across the board, class averages are going up. Again, Jimbo is really good at recruiting, and this isn't a knock on what he's been able to accomplish. But I think there's plenty of good evidence that the year-by-year avg comparison is not worth much, especially when all of our peers are, on average, experiencing the same bump.
If there's no measurable standard to provide context year to year, then the year to year comparison is essentially meaningless
This post was edited on 2/3/21 at 9:45 pm
Posted on 2/3/21 at 9:52 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
Talent is becoming more and more centralized. The class we just had would have finished like 2nd a couple years ago. Now we have to fight off USC to finish 7th with an outside shot of finishing 6th
Sure, there's always differing levels of talent monopolization taking place, but the class total point values could be suffering from point inflation so I don't think this point about class totals equaling 2nd vs 7th means anything in a vacuum.
I don't believe it's published how they calculate class totals, but if every recruit is seeing a tiny bump, I would assume that translates to class totals creeping up as well.
This post was edited on 2/3/21 at 9:55 pm
Posted on 2/3/21 at 10:15 pm to NanosTacoRun
quote:
7 classes average 90+ in 2015
10 in 2016
13 in 2021
14 classes average 89+ in 2015
13 in 2016
17 in 2021
Again, that doesn’t demonstrate that there has been an increase in the average or median player ranking.
Posted on 2/3/21 at 10:17 pm to Hugh McElroy
Take the rankings avg for every school and total it. Or maybe look at the median each year.
Posted on 2/3/21 at 10:19 pm to Farmer1906
Yep. There might be grade inflation. I don’t know. But pointing out that the top schools are averaging a higher and higher graded player doesn’t by itself show grade inflation.
Posted on 2/4/21 at 10:52 am to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Sonny Shipp is saying the decision will be on Friday. And he thinks LSU is on the outside looking in.
It’s us right? Can Bama fit him in?
Posted on 2/4/21 at 10:54 am to Farmer1906
If true, then it's us. Bama doesn't have the room and it sounds like LSU is more interested in taking some transfers than adding another receiver
Posted on 2/4/21 at 11:11 am to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Yep. There might be grade inflation. I don’t know. But pointing out that the top schools are averaging a higher and higher graded player doesn’t by itself show grade inflation
Got curious so I did 15 mins of research... here is the total # of 4 and 5-star players in 247 composite for the past 10 years:
2021 - 361 (34 5-stars)
2020 - 373 (32)
2019 - 385 (34)
2018 - 376 (29)
2017 - 339 (33)
2016 - 342 (26)
2015 - 342 (37)
2014 - 329 (33)
2013 - 365 (35)
2012 - 394 (38)
Based on these numbers, I'd agree its not so much grade inflation, as it is a consolidation of talent to the top teams. Just to put into perspective, Bama signed 20% of all 5-stars in the country this year. No wonder they set an all time high points total.
Posted on 2/4/21 at 3:18 pm to RoscoeHarper
quote:Interesting data. Thanks for the legwork.
here is the total # of 4 and 5-star players in 247 composite for the past 10 years:
Posted on 2/4/21 at 4:13 pm to RoscoeHarper
Here are the ratings for the top 500 recruits, 2015 vs 2021, with a best fit line used to smooth out the data
Once you get past #150, there's a pretty clear bias developing towards the 2021 ratings
Once you get past #150, there's a pretty clear bias developing towards the 2021 ratings
Posted on 2/4/21 at 4:18 pm to NanosTacoRun
Zooming in on the #150-500 range, the bias is a little clearer. Functionally, it's like bumping up every recruit 20-50 spots depending where on the curve you are if you move them from 2015 to 2021
This post was edited on 2/4/21 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 2/4/21 at 4:19 pm to NanosTacoRun
So basically they’re giving fewer shitty ratings. If anything that should help the mid tier classes and have little effect the top ones.
Edit: just realized you said top 150. So it will effect all classes. Inflation is real then.
Edit: just realized you said top 150. So it will effect all classes. Inflation is real then.
This post was edited on 2/4/21 at 4:20 pm
Posted on 2/4/21 at 4:25 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Inflation is real then.
Yes, look at the last chart and then assume your recruiting class consists of 7 players, ranked:
#151
#201
#251
#301
#351
#401
#451
If you signed the exact same class in 2015 and 2021, your class average is going to be noticeably higher in 2021.
Posted on 2/4/21 at 5:27 pm to NanosTacoRun
Still don't know if its that simple. 2012-2013 seem to buck that trend. I haven't gone back further than that.
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