re: Quantifying the Value of Expansion Candidates

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There's just not much dead weight other than Vandy. Even MSU ranks well ahead of four BIG 10 programs.

In hindsight, adding Clemson back in 1992 rather than South Carolina would have been a better call, but what's done is done. Florida State would have been great too but they passed on the opportunity.

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There's not and the other thing to keep in mind is that the current SEC TV deal actually kind of throttles the lower half of the conference in this metric that very heavily weights tv ratings.

Take this comparison: Notre Dame, even when they're bad, get a free giant rating because every single game is on NBC. It's basically impossible, even if the two worst FBS programs are going at each other, to have a lower rating on NBC than two great teams playing on SEC Network or even say ESPN 2.

So a really fun slugfest between say 5-3 Ole Miss and 4-4 South Carolina is relegated to the SEC Network or ESPN 2 at 11am. If that game had the opportunity to be on ABC in primetime, it would do great ratings.

But the SEC only has a handful of primetime network slots each week:

ABC: 1-3 games (big ratings guaranteed)

ESPN / ESPN2 / ESPNU: 3-6 games (can still see big ratings on ESPN, basically impossible on ESPN2 / ESPNU)

SEC Network / digital only: 1-3 games (guaranteed shite ratings to tank your average)

So a genuinely competitive, fun, middle of the pack SEC team is going to get weighed down in ratings because it rarely gets on a national network. Since the SEC is the deepest conference, but has no more national tv slots than the B1G or the ACC or the Big 12, its sinks its own middle class and lower class teams.

To put that in perspective, Mizzou appeared on national television twice last season. Texas appeared on national television seven times. Notre Dame appeared 10 times (with one game on Peacock and one on ESPN).

Of course Mizzou's tv ratings look like dog shite in comparison. They were relegated to SECN / ESPN2 / ESPNU / digital only broadcasts seven times.

If the SEC had a better tv deal and scheduled better, it would pump ratings even higher.

My value is how fun of a road game team/destination would they be?

I get the purpose of what you're saying. Deion is a flash in the pan story that is heavily influencing that study. So their information is heavily discounted.

Beyond that. I also think Colorado is too far and not regional enough.

Really good post but I think geography should weigh in somewhere.

The traditional tagets most mention here make sense.

If you consider the big 10 and what they did with Oregon and USC, that is a giant shite show. It’s not good for the schools, not good for the teams, not good for the players. Those adds were solely done for the viewership contracts.

Concur, frick FSU. They made their bed, let them rot

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the other thing to keep in mind is that the current SEC TV deal actually kind of throttles the lower half of the conference in this metric that very heavily weights tv ratings.

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The other side of the coin: Kentucky, Vandy, Miss State, etc see their TV numbers explode because they piggyback on to playing Alabama, Georgia, Texas, etc who automatically bring in high viewership to any game.

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Take this comparison: Notre Dame, even when they're bad, get a free giant rating because every single game is on NBC.

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Not really. I mean they certainly get access to exposure, but Notre Dame on NBC is not that big of a draw. Since 2016, ND has averaged 3.4 million regular season viewers on NBC. That's pathetic compared to a typical ABC or CBS SEC game.

Notre Dame actually averages 4.6 million when they get to play on other networks (ABC, FOX, CBS, ESPN) as a visitor.

NBC's CFB broadcast is pretty bad and it shows in the numbers.

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But the SEC only has a handful of primetime network slots each week:

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There's plenty of exposure for the SEC.

The ABC 11:00 CT Saturday slot has averaged 4.5 million viewers when including an SEC team (21 total broadcasts) the past two seasons.

The ABC 2:30 CT Saturday slot has averaged 6.7 million viewers (27 broadcasts).

The ABC primetime Saturday slot has averaged 7.7 million viewers (27 broadcasts).

Those are massive numbers.... way ahead of what NBC ever gets with Notre Dame.

The ESPN 11:00 AM slot often features non-SEC teams, but when it does feature and SEC team it gets almost 2.2 million viewers (8 broadcasts).

The ESPN 2:30 slot has averaged 2.2 million viewers as well when featuring an SEC team (13 broadcasts)

The ESPN primetime slot gets 2.0 million per contest involving an SEC team... mainly because it usually goes head to head with the bigger ABC game (15 broadcasts in two seasons).

The only area that I have a major complaint about is the fact that the SEC Network is not a metered network. We have no idea the viewership totals it brings in. My guess is the typical SEC network primetime game is getting 1-2 million viewers but we have no idea, and those games are not included in these overall viewership numbers.

I don't see why any conference would go with 19 teams. But honestly, I don't see why any conference would go with 16 teams either. That's just too big. 12 is the sweet spot and 14 is tolerable.

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Clemson and Florida State look like brands that are in rapid retreat.

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I disagree. I'm not for adding any of these teams, but Clemson and FSU have a lot of upside, IMO.

The states of Florida and South Carolina rank #2 and #3 in population growth 2020-2025 (behind only Idaho). South Carolina is #3 in net domestic migration... ahead of Georgia, Tennessee, and even Florida.

Both schools have a solid academic ranking and are seeing applications and selectivity surge. FSU is tied with Texas A&M in university rankings by US News and World Report.

Throw in the fact that both are Top 17 TV draws and have won national titles the past 15 seasons, I think they've got a ton of upside.

As I said earlier, right now expanding makes no sense for the SEC, IMO. But if we get into a situation where the SEC+Big10 are looking to break away and we need to add a few teams, FSU and Clemson make a whole lot of sense. I can see the argument for UNC if we are just looking for new geography and a big brand, but Clemson and FSU would be better from a true value perspective.