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re: Quantifying the Value of Expansion Candidates
Posted on 8/14/26 at 11:35 am to AUTiger789
Posted on 8/14/26 at 11:35 am to AUTiger789
Now classify each as accretive or dilutive to the SEC average.
Rodo
Rodo
0
Posted on 8/14/26 at 11:39 am to AUTiger789
quote:
In hindsight, adding Clemson back in 1992 rather than South Carolina would have been a better call, but what's done is done. Florida State would have been great too but they passed on the opportunity.
huh? Clemson was an ACC member...there was no possibility of adding them. SC was an independent which is why you got us. Also there really is no telling what would have happened, Clemson was pretty mid around that time, just as SC was.
Posted on 8/14/26 at 11:47 am to AUTiger789
UNC is a huge brand in several sports and gets us into the 9th most populated state in the country. It is also an impressive school academically. Notre Dama (not going to happen) is #1. UNC is # 2. FSU is # 3.
Posted on 8/14/26 at 11:50 am to Uga Alum
UNC average 50,500 in home attendance in 2025. Lower than Miss St. Hard pass.
Rodo
Rodo
Posted on 8/14/26 at 12:01 pm to BreakawayZou83
quote:
Your formula, with 50% weighted by tv ratings, basically turns this into ranking the candidates by tv ratings rather than quantifying value of the expansion candidates at they would exist in the SEC.
But TV viewership is literally everything that is driving expansion. Of course it has to be highly weighted. The Networks aren't stupid. They are not putting teams on in primetime just because they think they are ranked high. They are choosing games based off viewership potential.
Take Vanderbilt 2025. They were ranked virtually all season long and were one win away from possibly making the Playoff. How many times did they get picked for an ABC primetime game: zero.
Vandy played twice on ABC at 11:00 AM and once at 2:30. No primetime ABC appearance.
You can say this is unfair to Vandy and the system favors the big dogs of the sport, or you can say the networks know which programs bring in the viewers and therefore choose games accordingly. It's probably more the latter
quote:
Let's play this out: Colorado joins the SEC. North Carolina joins the the SEC. Let's assume we're stuck with the same tv deal we have now. How often is Colorado going to play on ABC or ESPN? Probably not often.
The last two seasons...
ABC Primetime slot:
7 games- Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee
5 games- Texas A&M
4 games- Oklahoma
3 games- Florida, Texas
2 games- Auburn
1 game- Arkansas, Kentucky, Ole Miss, South Carolina
ABC Saturday Afternoon Slot:
7- Alabama
6- Georgia, Oklahoma
5- Auburn, Florida
4- Texas, Ole Miss
3- LSU, Kentucky
2- Arkansas, Missouri, S Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M
1- Vanderbilt
ABC 11:00 AM slot:
4- Arkansas, Texas
3- Alabama, Missouri, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt
2- Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, S Carolina, Tennessee
1- Texas A&M
ESPN Primetime Slot:
3- Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
2- Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, S Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M
1.- Auburn, Kentucky, Miss St, Missouri, Oklahoma
ESPN Afternoon slot:
3- Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
2- Arkansas, Ole Miss, Texas
1- Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma, S Carolina, Tennessee
ESPN Early Slot:
2- Miss St, Ole Miss, S Carolina
1- Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
ESPN2 games (anytime)
2- Auburn, Florida, Missouri
1- Miss St, Oklahoma
Total Saturday Games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 (all time slots)
19- Alabama
17- Georgia
16- Florida, Oklahoma
15- LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M
14- Tennessee
12- Arkansas, Auburn
10- Missouri
8- Kentucky, Vanderbilt
4- Miss St
All things considered, this is pretty evenly spread IMO.
quote:
How often is Colorado going to play on ABC or ESPN?
Honestly Colorado would get way more network slots because they are on Mountain time. They'd probably insert the Colorado game into the 9:00 PM CT slot on ESPN nearly every week. Again, not advocating for adding Colorado but that slot would be lived in by Colorado if they were in the SEC. North Carolina would get lost in the shuffle.
Posted on 8/14/26 at 12:06 pm to Gunny Hartman
quote:
The AP points are not economic data. Look at it again without the AP points and I'll bet NC starts to look like a viable expansion target.
They don't. Outside of academic, UNC ranks low in everything.
AP Poll points: #39
TV Viewership Rank: #47
Attendance Rank: #41
Enrollment Rank #39
Academics Rank #9
Their AP history actually pulls them up.
Posted on 8/14/26 at 12:07 pm to GamecockUltimate
quote:
Clemson was pretty mid around that time, just as SC was.
Clemson was a decade removed from winning a national title.
Posted on 8/14/26 at 12:23 pm to BurgTiger
quote:
I think there’s a reason congress is looking to fence conferences in at 19 and they sure didn’t come up with that # itself.
19 is an odd number for sure. Like you said, there's a reason the bill in Congress had that number in it. My guess is it allows for ND to move to the BIG 10 and still leaves room for the SEC to expand without getting too watered down.
Scheduling would probably move to an 11-game conference schedule... My guess would be a 4+7 format... Four annual rivals plus 7 rotating opponents. This would mean you'd play every team every two seasons at a minimum.
The twelfth game would likely be one OOC game against the BIG10 assuming both leagues broke away to form a new elite league.
This post was edited on 8/14/26 at 12:24 pm
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