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Looking at the AP rankings really has me scratching my head.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 10/26/26 at 2:39 pm
Why are pretending that a big 12 win is comparable to an sec win? Why are do all the big 10 schedules only have 2 competitive games on them? What would notre dame have to do to be ranked outside the top 15? SEC football is just different, the other conferences do not put the same products on the field.
So i thought, this must be obvious in some sort of data. And it is. I used the 247 composite team talent rankings to compare. This was the easiest way to generate tangible data. I know these rankings are not the end all be all of football talent, but they are adequate for a comparison. These are unbiased rankings of the kids everyone is trying to recruit. And a free market of transfer targets across all conferences. Here's what i found:
Average Team Composite Rating Score:
SEC: 869.03
Big 10: 778.33
ACC & Big 12: Significantly lower, did not waste time filtering through their pathetic data
Of the Top 20 team composite ratings:
SEC - 13 teams
Big 10 - 4 yeams
ACC - 2 teams
Big 12 - 0 teams
The average sec team is almost 100 composite points higher than the average big 10 team. This is a significant difference in talent. The top teams of the SEC all share dozens of historic regional rivalries. Teams that hate each other, and even during a bad season will bring out all the stops for a win. The big 10 has Ohio State-Michigan, and nothing else.
The big 12 and ACC are not much better than G6 conferences.
13 of the 16 sec teams are rated in the top 20 in terms of national team talent. This is why the sec appears to be cannibalizing itself and teams like ucla and Utah are undefeated.
It does not make much sense for the SEC to continue forward with the other conferences, they do not play the same level of competition throughout the season, yet get equal representation in the playoff format. Sankey has dropped the ball on negotiations and has allowed the rest of the country to benefit off of the SECs hard work.
2026 Talent Composite Rankings
So i thought, this must be obvious in some sort of data. And it is. I used the 247 composite team talent rankings to compare. This was the easiest way to generate tangible data. I know these rankings are not the end all be all of football talent, but they are adequate for a comparison. These are unbiased rankings of the kids everyone is trying to recruit. And a free market of transfer targets across all conferences. Here's what i found:
Average Team Composite Rating Score:
SEC: 869.03
Big 10: 778.33
ACC & Big 12: Significantly lower, did not waste time filtering through their pathetic data
Of the Top 20 team composite ratings:
SEC - 13 teams
Big 10 - 4 yeams
ACC - 2 teams
Big 12 - 0 teams
The average sec team is almost 100 composite points higher than the average big 10 team. This is a significant difference in talent. The top teams of the SEC all share dozens of historic regional rivalries. Teams that hate each other, and even during a bad season will bring out all the stops for a win. The big 10 has Ohio State-Michigan, and nothing else.
The big 12 and ACC are not much better than G6 conferences.
13 of the 16 sec teams are rated in the top 20 in terms of national team talent. This is why the sec appears to be cannibalizing itself and teams like ucla and Utah are undefeated.
It does not make much sense for the SEC to continue forward with the other conferences, they do not play the same level of competition throughout the season, yet get equal representation in the playoff format. Sankey has dropped the ball on negotiations and has allowed the rest of the country to benefit off of the SECs hard work.
2026 Talent Composite Rankings
Posted on 10/26/26 at 2:43 pm to theliontamer
When you look at the AP voters, it makes a lot more sense.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 2:44 pm to NFLSU
The Big 12 win over Notre Dame is better than any SEC win over another conference.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 2:45 pm to theliontamer
Agree with everything you said, except they dont get equal representation in the playoff.
The problem is that the SEC gap is so large that in a 12 team playoff you would need ~6 SEC teams and thus the other conferences get more than they deserve given its only 12 teams as they wont let the SEC get than many even though if there were a way to play a basketball like schedule and there were 12+ OOC games amongst other conferences you would see a large disparity of SEC wins vs other conferences. Since we can not do that the pollsters just use W-L as there is no agreed way to show how much great the SEC schedule is than other conferences, nor do other top teams even try and playing any respectable OOC opponents. What you are left with is the SEC will likely get 4 only and many teams who would go 11-1 or 10-2 in the BIG and 12-0 or 11-1 in the ACC / Big 12 are going to go 9-3 or 8-4 in the SEC simply due to an SEC schedule.
The problem is that the SEC gap is so large that in a 12 team playoff you would need ~6 SEC teams and thus the other conferences get more than they deserve given its only 12 teams as they wont let the SEC get than many even though if there were a way to play a basketball like schedule and there were 12+ OOC games amongst other conferences you would see a large disparity of SEC wins vs other conferences. Since we can not do that the pollsters just use W-L as there is no agreed way to show how much great the SEC schedule is than other conferences, nor do other top teams even try and playing any respectable OOC opponents. What you are left with is the SEC will likely get 4 only and many teams who would go 11-1 or 10-2 in the BIG and 12-0 or 11-1 in the ACC / Big 12 are going to go 9-3 or 8-4 in the SEC simply due to an SEC schedule.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 2:46 pm to theliontamer
quote:
SEC football is just different, the other conferences do not put the same products on the field.
And yet the ACC and Big 10 knocked the SEC out of the playoffs last year. And the two years prior to that the Big 10 knocked out the last SEC team
Posted on 10/26/26 at 2:51 pm to theliontamer
The original BCS format was the right idea- use unbiased computer algorithms to rank the teams. The problem was everybody cried about the results the computers came up with so they kept tweaking the formula until it basically became a carbon copy of the AP poll.
With all the advances there's been in data science in the three decades that have passed since the original BCS, they could easily come up with really good algorithms that take into account the talent compositions of these teams along with all the other metrics used to rank teams.
With all the advances there's been in data science in the three decades that have passed since the original BCS, they could easily come up with really good algorithms that take into account the talent compositions of these teams along with all the other metrics used to rank teams.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 2:56 pm to Wishbone85
Why is it better than Texas' win over Ohio State?
Posted on 10/26/26 at 2:57 pm to vengeanceofbrain
quote:
And yet the ACC and Big 10 knocked the SEC out of the playoffs last year. And the two years prior to that the Big 10 knocked out the last SEC team
Quite literally the only SEC rent a win chimes in
Posted on 10/26/26 at 3:01 pm to Wishbone85
Texas win over OSU is better, do you think OSU with Jullian Sayin isnt a better team than ND?
Posted on 10/26/26 at 3:09 pm to TheTideMustRoll
quote:
Why is it better than Texas' win over Ohio State?
It's not.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 3:09 pm to theliontamer
Posted on 10/26/26 at 3:15 pm to BuckeyeGoon
quote:
use unbiased computer algorithms to rank the teams.
All models have bias.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 3:16 pm to theliontamer
As I stated before, for all the talk of parity in college football, it only really exists in the SEC.
That parity means starters stay in longer, run greater risk of injury, and attrition takes hold.
Conferences with one good team (ACC or Big 12) or two to three (B1G) will see starters pulled much more frequently.
It'd be great if someone did the math for number of snaps for starters per conference.
That parity means starters stay in longer, run greater risk of injury, and attrition takes hold.
Conferences with one good team (ACC or Big 12) or two to three (B1G) will see starters pulled much more frequently.
It'd be great if someone did the math for number of snaps for starters per conference.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 3:33 pm to Wishbone85
Sooo Texas over Ohio state is what….??
Posted on 10/26/26 at 3:42 pm to LSUTigresFan
quote:
All models have bias.
Sure but you can remove the common pitfalls that come from human rankings. Humans will see logos like Ohio State and Kentucky and almost always give the nod to the name brand program. Also humans tend to suffer from recency bias where opinions of these teams is heavily influenced by the last game we watched them play. An algorithm can weigh all games played throughout the season equally and not make snap judgements based on one game.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 4:31 pm to BuckeyeGoon
quote:
The original BCS format was the right idea- use unbiased computer algorithms
Can't be stressed enough.
It took the human bias element out.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 4:35 pm to Jauquismos
I'm thinking with AI someone could create a BCS algorithm on steroids. No human rankings involved.
Use every statistical category possible with home field advantage taken into account, etc.
Use every statistical category possible with home field advantage taken into account, etc.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 9:16 pm to vengeanceofbrain
In your mind this is some sort of gotcha. to people with a functioning brain, this does nothing but say that other conferences have 1 or 2 teams at the top that have beaten the top teams in the SEC. It says nothing about the strength of the depth in those conferences, which is what this post is about. I hope i've helped you wrap your smooth brain around this concept.
This post was edited on 10/26/26 at 9:17 pm
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