re: Does anyone seriously believe that bama doesn't make the CFP?

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Auburn clearly is the better team. Too bad for all of my Gump friends, but hey I am sure they can buy a lot more new recruits.

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Yeah agreed, but this is about whether or not bama is in the top 2-4

Obviously...

Your schedule is weak AF. Sorry bout it.

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Does anyone seriously believe that bama doesn't make the CFP?

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As an Alabama fan, I believe we would need help/luck to get in. Right now, I don't see it. I'm assuming an Orange Bowl berth vs the ACC CFG loser.

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They have the as good of a résumé as anyone.

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Our signature win right now is LSU. FSU was supposedly going to be a good one, but went into a nosedive this season. MSU looked solid, but losing Fitzgerald and giving up over 30 to OM ruined that. A&M had some good moments, but had a bit of a tailspin. Tennessee is a dumpster fire.

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Would they beat Clemson or Wisky right now?

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I have NO idea. I think I'd like our chances against Wisconsin more than Clemson, but plenty of fans at the beginning of the season did not figure this to be "our year" because of the losses on the DL. Then the injuries at LB in game one, and we figured we were toast.

Then after the early season blowouts, we started thinking maybe this offense could score 50 on everyone. We got fooled, myself included - Vandy had just beaten a ranked team before playing us, remember? They were supposed to be at least "good", and we throttled them. All looked like roses for a while.

Anyway, I don't see us getting into the CFP UNLESS it comes down to Alabama vs Ohio State, in which case the committee might have a hard time justifying leaving Alabama out just one year after letting OSU in without winning their conference.

Even so, I don't think we get in. Alabama will have to "settle" for an 11 or 12 win season this year.

If (probably when) OSU beats Wisky, there will definitely be a debate between a two loss OSU with two better wins and two worse losses than a 1 loss Bama. I'm not sure who the committee will go with, I lean toward Bama, but could go either way.

Frankly, if AU gets in, I want Bama in. I think we would beat them in a rematch and beating them twice in the same year would be great. Would get the all time series lead to 8, help with recruiting, and help push the balance of power between AU and Bama our way. This year I think AU is superior physically on both sides of the ball and I have no problem playing Bama as many times as possible when we have the bettwer team.

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The question isn't whether or not they are a top 4 team...sorry, it's not. The purpose of the playoff is to determine who the #1 team is and if a candidate for #1 was very recently eliminated as a possible #1, they shouldn't be there.

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Not to belabor the point, but the purpose of the COMMITTEE is to do just that - determine the top 4.

By your logic, lots of teams who have won the Super Bowl should never have been there.

1980 Oakland Raiders–Super Bowl XV (played in 1981)
1997 Denver Broncos–Super Bowl XXXII (played in 1998)
2000 Baltimore Ravens–Super Bowl XXXV (played in 2001)
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers–Super Bowl XL (played in 2006)
2007 New York Giants–Super Bowl XLII (played in 2008)

The playoff is to determine the #1 team. By your very logic, Auburn losing a second game during the regular season eliminates them as well, but that's not how playoffs work.

AMEN Brother

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This year I think AU is superior physically on both sides of the ball and I have no problem playing Bama as many times as possible when we have the bettwer team.

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Definitely. It's possible that bama fan beat Auburn, but Auburn has a much superior team,especially on the lines. Aubrin secondary this year looks really strong too.

If bama gets in they will lose again in the CFP. They just don't have a good enough team this year.

This will be the final alignment:

Clemson
Oklahoma
Alabama
Auburn

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Well, if Wisconsin, OU win, how can the committee leave one of them out to give the Gumps a spot?

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Yea, if Wisky wins out, they're in. However, if Ohio St. beats Wisconsin and Auburn beats UGA, the Big 10 is left out.

...as they probably should be.

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Should have played Mercer instead of Iowa...

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Or, you should've just shown up and beaten a 7-5 team. Or, not lost by 30+.

Mercer or Iowa, Bama wouldn't have lost that game, much less lost by 31.

As for strength of schedule, an OSU has played 4 teams that were ranked at time of game. OSU is 2-2 in those games. Bama has played 4 teams that were ranked at time of game. Bama is 3-1 in those games.

Even though that stops your strength of schedule argument, none of that matters b/c the trump card that the committee is going to struggle to get past (as they should) is that an OSU lost by 31 points. THIRTY ONE! To a 7-5 team no less.