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BHMKyle
Georgia Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
2781 posts

CFB Program Rankings
I developed a new formula that I think is a good way of ranking the CFB programs of today... placing more importance on recent history, yet still rewarding programs for accomplishments long ago.

It's based mainly on historical performance in the AP Poll, only its weighted so that more recent years receive more points. A National Championship is also worth 3x points. So for example:

1st place finish = 75 points
2nd place finish = 24 points
3rd place finish = 23 points
25th place finish = 1 point

Points accumulated in the past 10 years receive full credit.

Points accumulated 51 years or earlier get half credit. So any points accumulated in 1968 or earlier are only going to receive half the credit compared to if that same accomplishment were to have occurred in the past decade.

Points accumulated anywhere from 11-50 years ago are discounted on a sliding scale.... So the points accumulated in 2007 (11 years ago) receive 98.75% times full credit.... while points accumulated in 1969 (50 years ago) get 51.25% credit.

With each passing year between 11 and 50 years prior, a 1.25% deduction occurs.

Lastly, if a team was awarded the UPI/Coaches' National Title during a year in which the AP Champion was different, they too receive the full 75 points multiplied by the time factor.

Here's how the programs rank:

THE BLUE BLOODS
1. Alabama- 1182 points
2. Oklahoma- 933
3. Ohio St.- 905
4. USC- 809
5. Notre Dame- 808
6. Michigan- 716
7. Nebraska- 713
8- Texas- 639

These were the 8 programs discussed yesterday in the "Blue Bloods" thread, and sure enough their past history is enough to carry all of them still in the Top 8.

THE REST OF THE ELITE:
9. Florida State- 606
10. Miami- 604
11. LSU- 577
12. Florida- 550
13. Penn State- 549
14. Tennessee- 514
15. Auburn- 489
16. Georgia- 458

Obviously the Florida schools benefit most from a system like this. This system gives much more weight to accomplishments in recent years compared to accomplishments long, long ago.

Florida State, Miami, Florida benefit greatly, while Notre Dame, Michigan, Nebraska, Penn State, Tennessee, etc. are penalized.

THE NEXT BEST:
17. Clemson- 389
18. Michigan St.- 350
19. UCLA- 346
20. Washington-293
21. Texas A&M- 279
22. Wisconsin- 276
23. Arkansas- 274
24. TCU- 249
25. Oregon- 237
26. Pittsburgh- 232
27. Colorado- 232
28. Iowa- 228
29. Minnesota- 224
30. Stanford- 215

Again, programs like Clemson, Wisconsin, and Oregon benefit in a system like this.... because they've accomplished more in recent years compared to their past. Meanwhile programs like Arkansas and Minnesota are penalized in this type of system for not doing much lately.



This post was edited on 6/13 at 12:36 pm


LSU Patrick
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2009
48723 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
Someone in that other thread actually claimed that Clemson is a Blue Blood.


RT1941
Alabama Fan
Montgomery
Member since May 2007
20220 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
quote:

THE BLUE BLOODS
1. Alabama- 1182 points
Looks right to me.


PurpleandGeauld
LSU Fan
Florence, TX
Member since Oct 2013
2999 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
Just curious, is LSU's points halved for the 2007 Natty? I mean it did actually become official in 2008

That would put us up 2 spots to 9th


BHMKyle
Georgia Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
2781 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
quote:

Just curious, is LSU's points halved for the 2007 Natty? I mean it did actually become official in 2008


No. It's just outside of the 10-year window, so only a 1.25% deduction occurs.

75 points x .9875 = 74.06 points

Each year, that title will lose a bit of value until in 40 years or so it receives just 37.5 points where it will settle out forever.


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100
I Bleed Garnet
Carolina Panthers Fan
Transplant in NYC/USC Grad
Member since Jul 2011
15459 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
Tillman alter


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86
Korin
Florida Fan
Member since Jan 2014
28686 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
Not bad.


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30
cardboardboxer
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2012
30713 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
This is by far the best ranking like this.

In fact as far as I am concerned this should be the official answer for how to rank programs.


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180
BowlJackson
Auburn Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Sep 2013
36565 posts
 Online 

re: CFB Program Rankings
quote:

15. Auburn- 489
16. Georgia- 425





Pettifogger
Atlanta Braves Fan
Member since Feb 2012
52230 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
The only issue I really see is that it doesn't factor in some subjective-but-likely-accurate beliefs about a few declining programs. That's only really an issue if you're looking to these rankings to evaluate the present standing of the programs.

Including that type of thing defies the purpose of a metric system, but it's worth noting that Nebraska isn't likely to maintain its status, nor Miami, and perhaps not Tennessee.

Overall though, looks pretty aligned with conventional wisdom about where these programs sit.


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61
WestCoastAg
UCLA Fan
President, Braden Mann Fan Club
Member since Oct 2012
99757 posts
 Online 

re: CFB Program Rankings
This thread is always funny. A team that went 0-12 is only one point worse than the team that went 8-4 and finished #25


PurpleandGeauld
LSU Fan
Florence, TX
Member since Oct 2013
2999 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
quote:

This thread is always funny. A team that went 0-12 is only one point worse than the team that went 8-4 and finished #25
This is actually a good point. Maybe some negative points for: a .500 season, .500 to .250, and under .250.


Pdubntrub
Member since Jan 2018
1231 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
Great formula and list. Looks accurate


texag7
USA Fan
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
25624 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
quote:

This thread is always funny. A team that went 0-12 is only one point worse than the team that went 8-4 and finished #25


Yep. OPs formula is ass


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121
bigDgator
Florida Fan
Dallas
Member since Oct 2008
15501 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
FSU and Miami benefited greatly from being independent and having much easier schedules. When they finally joined conferences, they still had much easier schedules in the Big East and ACC. They would basically play 2 tough games a year. OU and Nebraska were the same.


BHMKyle
Georgia Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
2781 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
Here are the most valuable seasons for all SEC teams:

1. Alabama 2017- 75 points
2. Alabama 2015- 75 points
3. Alabama 2012- 75 points
4. Alabama 2011- 75 points
5. Auburn 2010- 75 points
6. Alabama 2009- 75 points
7. Florida 2008- 75 points
---------------------------
8. LSU 2007- 74.06 points
9. Florida 2006- 73.13 points
10. LSU 2003- 70.31 points
11. Tennessee 1998- 65.62 points
12. Florida 1996- 63.75 points
13. Alabama 1992- 60.00 points
14. Georgia 1980- 48.75 points
15. Alabama 1979- 47.81 points
16. Alabama 1978- 46.87 points
17. Alabama 1973- 42.19 points

All other National Titles won prior to 1969 are awarded 37.5 points


BHMKyle
Georgia Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
2781 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
Actually you just made me realize I had a typo. Georgia is still slightly behind, but with 458 points. I was only crediting our 1980 title at 25 points (prior to the time multiplier) instead of 75 points.

Thanks for catching.


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82
GurleyGirl
Georgia Fan
Georgia
Member since Nov 2015
9611 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
quote:

quote:This thread is always funny. A team that went 0-12 is only one point worse than the team that went 8-4 and finished #25This is actually a good point. Maybe some negative points for: a .500 season, .500 to .250, and under .250.


This. Consistency should be a factor. Obviously winning a NC is important but so is losing all of your conference games in a subsequent season.....


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11
BHMKyle
Georgia Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
2781 posts

re: CFB Program Rankings
quote:

FSU and Miami benefited greatly from being independent and having much easier schedules. When they finally joined conferences, they still had much easier schedules in the Big East and ACC. They would basically play 2 tough games a year. OU and Nebraska were the same.


This is why the AP Poll is the most valuable tool in ranking programs. Voters typically reward teams for playing difficult schedules while penalizing teams for playing easy ones.

That's how a 4-loss Auburn in 2017 finished #10 while a 3-loss Boise State finished #22

Winning percentage is actually one of the worst overall tools because there is zero SOS factor.


Farmer1906
Texas A&M Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
30645 posts
 Online 

re: CFB Program Rankings
Looks sound and well thought out. Good stuff.


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