Started By
Message
re: A&M -7.5 is free money
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:25 pm to TigerCruise
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:25 pm to TigerCruise
quote:What makes you think they were wrong?
Except odds makers are quite wrong quite a lot.
UConn +20 vs Mizzou
As far as this game is concerned, I like A&M if it gets back under 7 but I won't touch it if it doesn't.
This post was edited on 9/23/15 at 2:28 pm
0
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:29 pm to Masterag
Last year was a close contest because A&M had to catch up after falling behind, if the game starts similar then that line is probably fairly accurate. If A&M handles business and starts the game off like we should and jump out to a couple score lead or more, then it could turn ugly quick. Hogs aren't built to play catchup, and while our corners haven't been fully tested I like our odds to keep arky in check if they have to start throwing it a lot.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:32 pm to accnodefense
quote:
The fact that the best modelers and statistical analysts put out A&M -3 in the opener obviously means they still see something in Arkansas here, or are not convinced in A&M.
The -3 opener should be concerning to A&M backers.
This is using the amateur gambling logic that Vegas sets the line based actual analysis, predictions and who their experts think will win.
The line is set purely based on what number they believe will cause money to be split more or less equally on both sides of the line. They then shift the line to rectify a disproportionate amount of money going to one side or the other. In short, it is based far more on a feel for the betters than a feel for the game itself.
People who use betting lines, especially opening lines, as a barometer for a game simply don't understand the system.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:36 pm to accnodefense
quote:
The -3 opener should be concerning to A&M backers.
Agreed. I don't feel great about this game and think it will be close late.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:41 pm to PhilipMarlowe
7.5 is a sucker play, an attempt to shift money from amateurs onto Arkansas because all the smart money was laid on A&M -3 early. Smart betters start shying away from lines over a TD simply due to the unpredictability factor, while reactionary amateurs tend to jump on underdogs as lines rise.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:48 pm to accnodefense
Tell me about it. Lost $110 to 5Dimes on that spread.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:49 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
The line is set purely based on what number they believe will cause money to be split more or less equally on both sides of the line. They then shift the line to rectify a disproportionate amount of money going to one side or the other. In short, it is based far more on a feel for the betters than a feel for the game itself.
This is a myth and a fact at the same time. How do you think they determine what the opening line should be?
The line is based on if the game was played an infinite number of times, what the average margin of victory would be for a team. These modelers simulate the games a million timers or so and set the line based on the average MOV.
Of course when doing it this way ideally there would be equal action on both sides of the lines.
It's a myth because there are many cases when all of the money is on one side yet the line doesn't move or moves in even more favor of the team getting all the money.
The books are gamblers too. The Georgia-Vandy game 2 weeks ago was a good example. Georgia was getting all the money and the line stayed put. The books gambled on a Vandy cover and they won and cleaned up. Books can afford to gamble because the same modelers who set their lines can also give them percentages on how likely it is a team will cover. If all the money is on Georgia, and their mathmeticians say that Vanderbilt covers 60% of the time in their simulations, they can keep the line where it is.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:51 pm to TigerCruise
Didn't it open closer to -3? Vegas wasn't built by giving away free money.
This post was edited on 9/23/15 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:52 pm to TigerCruise
Ark is going to wake up and upset the Aggies.
bookmark this post.
bookmark this post.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:54 pm to TigerCruise
If Arkansas has a pulse left Kliff did the Aggies no favors
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:55 pm to moneyg
quote:
Arkansas matches up with A&M pretty well. It's basically a nightmare matchup for A&M.
Voice of reason
The main issue I am seeing with people capping this game is that they are capping the game only looking at one team. They see Arkansas has struggled 2 weeks in a row and therefore A&M is the play, without looking at A&M. These people would be playing A&M regardless of what the line is, and that's dangerous. If it were A&M -17 they would still be on it, because "Arkansas has sucked lately".
You have to look at both teams when capping games. So you are on A&M. I understand part of that is because Arkansas has not looked good. But what about A&M? Are you convinced in them? Why? Because they beat an Arizona State team that followed up with a 60 minute fight vs. Cal Poly where they needed a late touchdown to put the game away? Or a 1st half against New Mexico that was a sleepwalk? Did you watch the A&M-Nevada game and see how sloppy A&M played with the turnovers deep in their own territory and defensive mistakes?
If A&M plays Arkansas like they did Nevada they won't cover. A&M did not play up to their potential vs. Nevada. Say it was because an 11am kick or whatever, but it wasn't a pretty 44-27 win.
I think -7 is a good line. Anything above that Arkansas is the play, anything under A&M. I personally have Arkansas +8.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:57 pm to TigerCruise
The buldup for this games feels like the week before A&M played AU last season. AU top of thr world A&M had looked terrible in their last few games.
Arky fights hard in this one. They may win it outright.
Arky fights hard in this one. They may win it outright.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:58 pm to Vandyrone
quote:
Arkansas backdoor cover.
ISWYDT....
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:59 pm to warcry
I'm afraid of that
Posted on 9/23/15 at 3:01 pm to TigerCruise
I wish I had tracked everyone of these "free money" threads since I started here. Success rate has to be in the teens.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 3:01 pm to warcry
quote:
g to wake up and upset the Aggies. bookmark this post
Not sure which I would like more--the tamu season disrupted by a loss to the pigs or seeing another nail in Bert's coffin. I will be conflicted on Saturday, but Either way, I win
Posted on 9/23/15 at 3:02 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Voice of reason
The main issue I am seeing with people capping this game is that they are capping the game only looking at one team. They see Arkansas has struggled 2 weeks in a row and therefore A&M is the play, without looking at A&M. These people would be playing A&M regardless of what the line is, and that's dangerous. If it were A&M -17 they would still be on it, because "Arkansas has sucked lately".
You have to look at both teams when capping games. So you are on A&M. I understand part of that is because Arkansas has not looked good. But what about A&M? Are you convinced in them? Why? Because they beat an Arizona State team that followed up with a 60 minute fight vs. Cal Poly where they needed a late touchdown to put the game away? Or a 1st half against New Mexico that was a sleepwalk? Did you watch the A&M-Nevada game and see how sloppy A&M played with the turnovers deep in their own territory and defensive mistakes?
If A&M plays Arkansas like they did Nevada they won't cover. A&M did not play up to their potential vs. Nevada. Say it was because an 11am kick or whatever, but it wasn't a pretty 44-27 win.
I think -7 is a good line. Anything above that Arkansas is the play, anything under A&M. I personally have Arkansas +8.
This analysis has two glaring omissions.
First, it doesn't factor in the fact that Arkansas struggled BEFORE most of their injuries against Toledo, and their struggles grew as their injuries grew. Now they are down 4 of their top 5 skill position players.
Second, it ignores that A&M is objectively superior to Texas Tech across the board in both talent and production and Texas Tech won by 11 on the road with a similar style of play.
A&M is a no brainer at -3. 7.5 is scary simply due to unpredictability, but objectively nobody should expect Arkansas to keep it that close.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 3:04 pm to accnodefense
I hope the hogs wake up. I don't expect it.
Too many injuries and I expect A&M's Defensive Ends to freak BA out by the second possession.
If we sit in a base defense like we did vs. Texas Tech...it'll be horrible. I suspect the Arkansas staff may be approaching a 'why not' mentality and we migth run our first blitz of the year.
I'll watch until I can't but I wouldn't be on Arkansas.
Too many injuries and I expect A&M's Defensive Ends to freak BA out by the second possession.
If we sit in a base defense like we did vs. Texas Tech...it'll be horrible. I suspect the Arkansas staff may be approaching a 'why not' mentality and we migth run our first blitz of the year.
I'll watch until I can't but I wouldn't be on Arkansas.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 3:05 pm to accnodefense
quote:
The books are gamblers too. The Georgia-Vandy game 2 weeks ago was a good example. Georgia was getting all the money and the line stayed put. The books gambled on a Vandy cover and they won and cleaned up. Books can afford to gamble because the same modelers who set their lines can also give them percentages on how likely it is a team will cover. If all the money is on Georgia, and their mathmeticians say that Vanderbilt covers 60% of the time in their simulations, they can keep the line where it is.
This is simply not the norm though, because it's a fast way to be out large sums of money. Odds makers have to feel VERY good about a situation to leave an extremely disproportionate amount of money on one side of the line. Moreover, when a line doesn't shift or continues to shift in the direction of the money it is a big red flag to betters that someone knows something they don't.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 3:05 pm to accnodefense
Where was most of the money for Arkansas-Tech? Arkansas was a 12 point favorite IIRC.
Arkansas' strengths on offense align well with some of our weaknesses on D. I still have questions about the interior of our line. I wouldn't call it a nightmare matchup however. I don't see a QB or WRs who can exploit our weaknesses at corner.
Arkansas' strengths on offense align well with some of our weaknesses on D. I still have questions about the interior of our line. I wouldn't call it a nightmare matchup however. I don't see a QB or WRs who can exploit our weaknesses at corner.
Page 2 of 3
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News