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Wonky CFP committee precedent question
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:44 pm
One of the Georgia beat writer dorks wrote this the other day...
This is especially true because the CFP selection committee has set a precedent that, barring an impactful injury to a key player or lopsided defeat, it will not drop a team playing in a conference championship game beneath a team that is not playing in its conference title game.
I'd never read this anywhere else, and it wouldn't be the first time that the AJC was wrong. At this point you see and hear so many things about the playoff committee criteria, I don't know what to think or believe.
But if this was true, it means that Bama is in the playoffs regardless, and the lowest Georgia could fall would be to fifth (if the committee moves Bama all the way up to 3 or 4 if they win). Who the frick really knows at this point.
https://www.dawgnation.com/gameday/must-knows/things-know-georgia-playoff-scenarios-how-bulldogs-could-host-first-round-playoff-game/2HKOVOQT35AVDEJZ7AIIVS3QKI/
This is especially true because the CFP selection committee has set a precedent that, barring an impactful injury to a key player or lopsided defeat, it will not drop a team playing in a conference championship game beneath a team that is not playing in its conference title game.
I'd never read this anywhere else, and it wouldn't be the first time that the AJC was wrong. At this point you see and hear so many things about the playoff committee criteria, I don't know what to think or believe.
But if this was true, it means that Bama is in the playoffs regardless, and the lowest Georgia could fall would be to fifth (if the committee moves Bama all the way up to 3 or 4 if they win). Who the frick really knows at this point.
https://www.dawgnation.com/gameday/must-knows/things-know-georgia-playoff-scenarios-how-bulldogs-could-host-first-round-playoff-game/2HKOVOQT35AVDEJZ7AIIVS3QKI/
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Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:46 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
If they get beat 52-10 or Simpson goes out w an injury it could be problematic.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:48 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
We are all Dawgs this weekend
Gumps lose like Texas did and they will be watching Miami in the playoffs
Gumps lose like Texas did and they will be watching Miami in the playoffs
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:48 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:This. The committee’s rationale has been all over the place. And this year’s shaping up to be the weirdest yet.
Who the frick really knows at this point.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:49 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
Violent Hip Swivel
apropos of nothing in the OP, I just want to say that your user name makes me chuckle in my mind every time I see it pop up. Top tier
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:49 pm to GeauxBurrow312
quote:
We are all Dawgs this weekend
Gumps lose like Texas did and they will be watching Miami in the playoffs
Obsession confirmed.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:50 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
it will not drop a team playing in a conference championship game beneath a team that is not playing in its conference title game.
simply not true. I don't know why people are so utterly confounded by this whole thing.
One thing that we've seen from the BCS in 1998 alllll the way up to this very day, is that you are penalized for losing like 99% of the time. There are some exceptions of course, I immediately think of the controversy with OU's upset in the CCG in 2003, but that's a bit different because prior to that game 03 OU was considered one of the best temas in recent memory.
What is being talked about now in 2025 is if a team, let's say alabama, would be punished for losin their CCG. They absolutely would/will be, as they should. You can't lose 3 games but it only count for 2. I mean just say that out loud...I can't believe it even needs to be said.
The rebuttal to that would be "well a team that didn't play in it's CCG gets to rest and then move ahead of them so that's not fair!!!!". A team in it's CCG also has a chance for a top 4 seed and a bye as well while couch sitter U does not.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:51 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
Expect to hear the terms “eye test” and “body of work” a lot.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:51 pm to BevoBucks
quote:
he committee’s rationale has been all over the place
the sooner people realize to not listen to a single word the committee says and instead just watch their actions, the better off we'll all be.
I can't tell you how many people I see keep parroting "the committee said a CCG loser won't be punished!!!". Idc what the committee says...watch what happens 6 days from now when CCG losers drop.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:52 pm to skrayper
quote:
Obsession confirmed.
What else is there to root for this season? The Music City bowl?
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:56 pm to GeauxBurrow312
quote:
What else is there to root for this season? The Music City bowl?
Lane Kiffin's X account, obviously.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:57 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
If Bama is sitting at 10 in this weeks rankings (seems likely), then a win will move them up, but probably not ahead of UGA, as weird as that may seem. They have said they don't like penalizing teams for playing in conference championship games, so given the gap between UGA and Bama, it would be hard for Bama to end up ahead of UGA.
Bama needs to pull hard for Texas Tech, because if BYU wins the Big XII title game, the cut line for at large teams is going to be 9 rather than 10, and if Bama loses to UGA while BYU wins the Big XII, Bama could find themselves squeezed out by a bid stealer (rather than being punished for losing) as we so often see in basketball and baseball. They could end up ranked 10 and still not make the field.
Bama needs to pull hard for Texas Tech, because if BYU wins the Big XII title game, the cut line for at large teams is going to be 9 rather than 10, and if Bama loses to UGA while BYU wins the Big XII, Bama could find themselves squeezed out by a bid stealer (rather than being punished for losing) as we so often see in basketball and baseball. They could end up ranked 10 and still not make the field.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:58 pm to ShoeBang
quote:
apropos of nothing in the OP, I just want to say that your user name makes me chuckle in my mind every time I see it pop up. Top tier
At the combine, coaches are always on the look out for violent hip swivel.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 12:59 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
simply not true. I don't know why people are so utterly confounded by this whole thing.
A beat writer wrote it. That's why I'm asking. They are supposed to know more than us, but maybe they don't.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 1:05 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
I'd never read this anywhere else, and it wouldn't be the first time that the AJC was wrong. At this point you see and hear so many things about the playoff committee criteria, I don't know what to think or believe.
I don't think it has ever been said put loud by the committee, but this is poorly worded.
pretty much, if Bama is ahead of, let's just say ... Miami prior to the Conference CGs, then a loss in that extra game against a top 5 team won't be the reason they knock them down below Miami after the CG.
but like it says, if they get absolutely waxed, or if they have a key injury that could skew that.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 1:06 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
Even if they follow the "no penalty for losing a CCG game" rule, Alabama currently has the last spot in the playoff. And BYU would take Alabama's spot if BYU beats Texas Tech and Georgia beats Alabama.
I don't really understand Alabama's -3300 odds to make the playoffs on FanDuel. Those odds don't really make sense unless they're expecting Alabama to pass ND in tomorrow night's playoff rankings. (Which itself wouldn't make much sense, but it would be even less sensible if Alabama passed ND after Alabama lost to Georgia.)
And that's not even accounting for things that I think are unlikely for the committee to do but that I wouldn't exactly assign 0% probability. (I.e. the possibility that if Duke wins the ACC championship, the committee might invite Miami and two Group of 5 champions to the playoffs, because they have to invite 5 champions, Duke would be such a ridiculous team to invite, and they want to invite somebody from the ACC.)
I don't really understand Alabama's -3300 odds to make the playoffs on FanDuel. Those odds don't really make sense unless they're expecting Alabama to pass ND in tomorrow night's playoff rankings. (Which itself wouldn't make much sense, but it would be even less sensible if Alabama passed ND after Alabama lost to Georgia.)
And that's not even accounting for things that I think are unlikely for the committee to do but that I wouldn't exactly assign 0% probability. (I.e. the possibility that if Duke wins the ACC championship, the committee might invite Miami and two Group of 5 champions to the playoffs, because they have to invite 5 champions, Duke would be such a ridiculous team to invite, and they want to invite somebody from the ACC.)
This post was edited on 12/1/25 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 12/1/25 at 1:06 pm to Nutriaitch
Hopefully Bama beats UGA again in a close game. Then, the committee can figure out how to have them play again in the playoff as early as possible. Maybe UGA could beat them with their 3 try.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 1:50 pm to hashtag
quote:
Hopefully Bama beats UGA again in a close game. Then, the committee can figure out how to have them play again in the playoff as early as possible. Maybe UGA could beat them with their 3 try.
The last rematch worked out so great for Bama.
Posted on 12/1/25 at 1:52 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
Look I don’t know what’s going to happen.
But Vegas has the odds like this;
Bama -3000
ND -420
BYU +410
Miami +650
Given that Bama and BYU are both dogs in their conference championships that either means Vegas believes they’re in either way or at least that the combined odds of Bama beating UGA outright or being locked in ahead of other at large schools is better than BYU beating Tech at +13.5 and managing to pass Bama.
But Vegas has the odds like this;
Bama -3000
ND -420
BYU +410
Miami +650
Given that Bama and BYU are both dogs in their conference championships that either means Vegas believes they’re in either way or at least that the combined odds of Bama beating UGA outright or being locked in ahead of other at large schools is better than BYU beating Tech at +13.5 and managing to pass Bama.
This post was edited on 12/1/25 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 12/1/25 at 1:58 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
The last rematch worked out so great for Bama.
The last time KDB rematched with a team in the CCG things worked out pretty well
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