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The SOS Discrepancy is out of control
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:27 am
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:27 am
Going by SP+ Rankings of all football subdivisions, here is the median opponent played so far for each team…. Meaning half the opponents played so far have been better and the other half have been weaker:
Auburn- #10 (Georgia)
Alabama- #18 (Tennessee)
Arkansas- #18 (Tennessee)
Florida- #19 (LSU)
S Carolina- #19 (LSU)
Georgia- #29 (Auburn)
Kentucky- #32.5 (midpoint between IM and SC)
Texas A&M- #39 (Florida)
Tennessee- #40 (Arkansas)
LSU- #47 (Clemson)
Missouri- #53 (S Carolina)
Oklahoma- #53 (S Carolina)
Mississippi St- #56 (Arizona St)
Texas- #61 (Kentucky)
Ole Miss- #61 (Kentucky)
Vanderbilt- #92 (Utah St)
Vandy’s schedule so far is a complete abomination. They’ve lost to #9 Alabama. Beat #19 LSU. But otherwise have played the #53, #92, #97, #165, and #280 best teams in the country. No wonder GameDay is headed their way at the midpoint of the season. There are ten other teams in the SEC that would have the same record as Vandy right now had they played their schedule.
Using Current SP+ rankings, here is how the schedules will look through the regular season as a whole (all 12 games) based on median opponent ranking:
S Carolina- #17
Arkansas- #18.5
Florida- #18.5
Oklahoma- #20
Alabama- #24
Kentucky- #26.5
Auburn- #27.5
Miss St- #28.5
Georgia- #33
Texas A&M- #38
Texas- #38
Missouri- #38.5
LSU- #39.5
Tennessee- #39.5
Vanderbilt- #41
Ole Miss- #46.5
Ole Miss’ schedule is an embarrassment. No conference should have teams playing such wild differences in SOS when so much money is on the line. If OM played Arkansas’ or South Carolina’s schedule, they’d have 4-5 losses. Instead they were given a cakewalk to the Playoff.
Ole Miss has games against all five of the lowest rated SEC teams on top of somehow getting out of playing an OOC P4 opponent. That’s basically 9 guaranteed wins on the schedule.
Ole Miss’ fourth toughest test of the season according to SP+ is when they will play Mississippi State at the end of the year. What an absolute joke.
Auburn- #10 (Georgia)
Alabama- #18 (Tennessee)
Arkansas- #18 (Tennessee)
Florida- #19 (LSU)
S Carolina- #19 (LSU)
Georgia- #29 (Auburn)
Kentucky- #32.5 (midpoint between IM and SC)
Texas A&M- #39 (Florida)
Tennessee- #40 (Arkansas)
LSU- #47 (Clemson)
Missouri- #53 (S Carolina)
Oklahoma- #53 (S Carolina)
Mississippi St- #56 (Arizona St)
Texas- #61 (Kentucky)
Ole Miss- #61 (Kentucky)
Vanderbilt- #92 (Utah St)
Vandy’s schedule so far is a complete abomination. They’ve lost to #9 Alabama. Beat #19 LSU. But otherwise have played the #53, #92, #97, #165, and #280 best teams in the country. No wonder GameDay is headed their way at the midpoint of the season. There are ten other teams in the SEC that would have the same record as Vandy right now had they played their schedule.
Using Current SP+ rankings, here is how the schedules will look through the regular season as a whole (all 12 games) based on median opponent ranking:
S Carolina- #17
Arkansas- #18.5
Florida- #18.5
Oklahoma- #20
Alabama- #24
Kentucky- #26.5
Auburn- #27.5
Miss St- #28.5
Georgia- #33
Texas A&M- #38
Texas- #38
Missouri- #38.5
LSU- #39.5
Tennessee- #39.5
Vanderbilt- #41
Ole Miss- #46.5
Ole Miss’ schedule is an embarrassment. No conference should have teams playing such wild differences in SOS when so much money is on the line. If OM played Arkansas’ or South Carolina’s schedule, they’d have 4-5 losses. Instead they were given a cakewalk to the Playoff.
Ole Miss has games against all five of the lowest rated SEC teams on top of somehow getting out of playing an OOC P4 opponent. That’s basically 9 guaranteed wins on the schedule.
Ole Miss’ fourth toughest test of the season according to SP+ is when they will play Mississippi State at the end of the year. What an absolute joke.
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Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:38 am to AUTiger789
Hard to even out when all playing the same league but I think going to a 9 game league schedule will help. The FCS games need to be a thing of the past and have everyone play 9 SEC games, 2 G5 games and one other P4 opponent.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:39 am to AUTiger789
Lots of text, some decent points, but let's see where this all lines up at the end of the year.
Auburn's schedule comparatively to Vandy's is much easier the rest of the way. Also, Vandy's schedule is hurt by having to play Auburn, while Auburn doesn't get to play itself. So you have to think about that, too.
Auburn's schedule comparatively to Vandy's is much easier the rest of the way. Also, Vandy's schedule is hurt by having to play Auburn, while Auburn doesn't get to play itself. So you have to think about that, too.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:41 am to AUTiger789
quote:
somehow getting out of playing an OOC P4 opponent.
Wake Forest canceled on us, and we had to schedule a last-minute game with Wazzu. Just to answer your “somehow”.
This post was edited on 10/20/25 at 10:42 am
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:44 am to AUTiger789
quote:That's just smart. The committee showed us last year that W/L record is far more meaningful to them than who you beat.
Ole Miss has games against all five of the lowest rated SEC teams on top of somehow getting out of playing an OOC P4 opponent. That’s basically 9 guaranteed wins on the schedule.
Ole Miss’ fourth toughest test of the season according to SP+ is when they will play Mississippi State at the end of the year. What an absolute joke.
Look at Alabama this year. If they'd scheduled OOC like Ole Miss, this week we'd be debating who should be ranked #2 behind them. Instead, they now have a tiny margin for error from a playoff standpoint.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:44 am to AUTiger789
Interesting counterpoint to all the threads lately griping about A&M’s schedule.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:48 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Going by SP+ Rankings of all football subdivisions, here is the median opponent played so far for each team…. Meaning half the opponents played so far have been better and the other half have been weaker: Auburn- #10 (Georgia) Alabama- #18 (Tennessee) Arkansas- #18 (Tennessee) Florida- #19 (LSU) S Carolina- #19 (LSU) Georgia- #29 (Auburn) Kentucky- #32.5 (midpoint between IM and SC) Texas A&M- #39 (Florida) Tennessee- #40 (Arkansas) LSU- #47 (Clemson) Missouri- #53 (S Carolina) Oklahoma- #53 (S Carolina) Mississippi St- #56 (Arizona St) Texas- #61 (Kentucky) Ole Miss- #61 (Kentucky) Vanderbilt- #92 (Utah St) Vandy’s schedule so far is a complete abomination. They’ve lost to #9 Alabama. Beat #19 LSU. But otherwise have played the #53, #92, #97, #165, and #280 best teams in the country. No wonder GameDay is headed their way at the midpoint of the season. There are ten other teams in the SEC that would have the same record as Vandy right now had they played their schedule. Using Current SP+ rankings, here is how the schedules will look through the regular season as a whole (all 12 games) based on median opponent ranking: S Carolina- #17 Arkansas- #18.5 Florida- #18.5 Oklahoma- #20 Alabama- #24 Kentucky- #26.5 Auburn- #27.5 Miss St- #28.5 Georgia- #33 Texas A&M- #38 Texas- #38 Missouri- #38.5 LSU- #39.5 Tennessee- #39.5 Vanderbilt- #41 Ole Miss- #46.5 Ole Miss’ schedule is an embarrassment. No conference should have teams playing such wild differences in SOS when so much money is on the line. If OM played Arkansas’ or South Carolina’s schedule, they’d have 4-5 losses. Instead they were given a cakewalk to the Playoff. Ole Miss has games against all five of the lowest rated SEC teams on top of somehow getting out of playing an OOC P4 opponent. That’s basically 9 guaranteed wins on the schedule. Ole Miss’ fourth toughest test of the season according to SP+ is when they will play Mississippi State at the end of the year. What an absolute joke.
Cliff Notes: the degenerate OP was so desperate to put Auburn first and the teams he doesn’t like behind them - at anything- that he weirdly selected “median opponent” as a barometer of SOS, rather than the readily available….now get this…SOS rankings. Pathetic.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:51 am to TideCPA
quote:
Look at Alabama this year. If they'd scheduled OOC like Ole Miss
Bama scheduled with a team that is 1-11 in the ACC over the past two seasons. G5 teams have a better record against ACC teams over that period.
Tulane is better than FSU, gumps flipping OOC with Ole Miss would not change anything
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:52 am to AUTiger789
Yeah it is unfortunate we got stuck with Auburn as one of our annual rivals...that really puts a dent in our strength of schedule. Fortunately we have Georgia Tech to make up for it.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:53 am to AUTiger789
I'm confused, I thought LSU handled all the schedule threads.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:55 am to Bham Bammer
quote:
Auburn's schedule comparatively to Vandy's is much easier the rest of the way.
Not complaining necessarily about Auburn’s schedule as a whole. Although I do think it’s ridiculous they assigned Auburn back-to-back road SEC games to start SEC play against upper tier programs.
Auburn (@ A&M and @ OU)
Arkansas (@ OM and @ TN)
These are the only two schools that were made to kick off their conference slate with two road games. At least Arkansas got to host Notre Dame. Considering Auburn opened at Baylor, it’s ridiculous the SEC sent us on the road for the third time against a P4 opponent before the close of September. That never should have happened IMO.
quote:
Also, Vandy's schedule is hurt by having to play Auburn, while Auburn doesn't get to play itself.
According to SP+ there isn’t much difference because it is factoring SOS heavily. Vandy is #15. Auburn is #29. That gap is not the reason for the disparity in those SOS comparisons.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:58 am to AUTiger789
Oklahoma wasn't an upper tier SEC program coming into the season. I'm not sure A&M was either, although I guess that depends on what you call upper tier. For whatever it's worth, the preseason order of finish prediction had A&M at 8 and OU at 10. That's the breaks sometimes, though.
This post was edited on 10/20/25 at 11:01 am
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:58 am to AUTiger789
quote:
The SOS Discrepancy is out of control
The Constant Bitching about SOS Discrepancy is out of control
This topic is getting really old. It comes up several times a day. Maybe Chicken could set up a separate board just for all the bitching about schedules.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 10:59 am to GeauxBurrow312
quote:Tulane is significantly lower than FSU in basically every statistical ranking (SP+, FEI, FPI, etc.). FSU is on a downward spiral, but they still have top 20 talent. Playing them on the road in game 1 with a new OC and QB is significantly different than playing Tulane at home in week 4.
Tulane is better than FSU, gumps flipping OOC with Ole Miss would not change anything
Playing 2 P4s OOC (rotating home-and-homes) vs. playing 0 P4s OOC (all at home) is not remotely the same.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 11:00 am to AUTiger789
"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking"
Anyway you twist Florida has the tougherst schedule in the nation as a whole.
But yes the descrepency is criminal.
Anyway you twist Florida has the tougherst schedule in the nation as a whole.
But yes the descrepency is criminal.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 11:01 am to AUTiger789
quote:There's your problem. It's idiotic to play anyone away from home OOC in the playoff era, especially a P4 team.
Considering Auburn opened at Baylor
Posted on 10/20/25 at 11:02 am to bigDgator
quote:
I'm confused, I thought LSU handled all the schedule threads.
Auburn fans are having an existential crisis, and this thread is one of the more pathetic ones I've seen. For those who want to see the real SOS:
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. Kentucky
6. Georgia
7. Texas
8. South Carolina
9. LSU
10. Tennessee
11. Texas A&M
12. Ole Miss
13. Oklahoma
14. Mississippi State
15. Vanderbilt
16. Missouri
Posted on 10/20/25 at 11:03 am to AUTiger789
Funny thing is how all of you worried how much OU and Texas would struggle. I have been seeing a lot of these types of posts lately … sec is melting already ? We have just been here for one full season ! You forgot you have to play us too lol.
This post was edited on 10/20/25 at 11:04 am
Posted on 10/20/25 at 11:03 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Ole Miss has games against all five of the lowest rated SEC teams on top of somehow getting out of playing an OOC P4 opponen
We had two scheduled this season and both pulled out in the offseason. Absolutely nothing we can do about that.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 11:06 am to AUTiger789
Weak attempt to be the victim OP auburn fan.
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