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LSU favored by 3 over Ole Miss; but ESPN game predictor gives Rebs a 56.5% chance to win
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:22 pm
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:22 pm
That seems odd - gambling line +3 means that LSU would theoretically be a 6 point favorite in a neutral site game and a 9 point favorite in Baton Rouge
What does ESPN see that the gamblers have missed? Or do the gamblers have a better handle on this…
LINK
What does ESPN see that the gamblers have missed? Or do the gamblers have a better handle on this…
LINK
This post was edited on 9/25/23 at 7:23 pm
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Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:34 pm to dcbl
They see that Kiffin's O will feast against our patchwork secondary.
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:38 pm to dcbl
quote:
What does ESPN see that the gamblers have missed?
Ole Miss must have a higher social score. Y’all roster any of the alphabets?
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:39 pm to dcbl
I’m going to believe the folks who stand to lose a lot of money if they are wrong.
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:39 pm to dcbl
The ESPN predictor is just an algorithm. Its been incredibly wrong before, but so has Vegas.
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:40 pm to dcbl
Sagarin thinks Ole Miss should be favored by 4
Ole Miss is probably a pretty good bet this week
Link doesn’t work for some reason.
Ole Miss is probably a pretty good bet this week
Link doesn’t work for some reason.
This post was edited on 9/25/23 at 7:44 pm
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:42 pm to BigBro
Yeah, I’m glad I don’t bet on ball games anymore; but if I did, I trust the Vegas oddsmakers more than espn by miles and miles…
Sagarin? Is usually fairly solid- we’ll see soon enough…
Sagarin? Is usually fairly solid- we’ll see soon enough…
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:42 pm to BigBro
We should have beaten Bama. Oh well!
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:45 pm to dcbl
quote:
Sagarin? Is usually fairly solid- we’ll see soon enough…
yeah it’s usually pretty good to show which games are good bets against Vegas
Per Sagarin, Texas should be favored by 17.5 vs Kansas, and the line is 17, so not a good bet either way
A&M should be -8 line is -6.5
Georgia should be -10 line is -14.5
(I wouldn’t touch that, but there is value there)
Kentucky should be -3 line is -2.5
Tennessee should be -8.5 line is -12.5
(some value on SC)
This post was edited on 9/25/23 at 7:53 pm
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:48 pm to BigBro
Dart is a notch below KJ or Travis so I tend to think we’ll be able to slow them down more than they will us, we’ll see though not going to claim to be super confident.
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:48 pm to dcbl
Vegas > ESPN
Always
Always
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:50 pm to Ancient Astronaut
quote:
We should have beaten Bama. Oh well!
They gave ole miss plenty of opportunities.
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:53 pm to dcbl
The ESPN game predictor had the Dallas Cowboys as a 72% chance to win when they were down 9-0 to the Cardinals on Sunday. That thing is useless.
Posted on 9/25/23 at 7:53 pm to dcbl
Bet the over
Posted on 9/25/23 at 8:14 pm to mattytiger123
quote:
They see that Kiffin's O will feast against our patchwork secondary.
If our D line can dominate their patchwork O line we will be ok. Kiffen's offense is also based on running the ball, which we can stop
Posted on 9/25/23 at 8:33 pm to Gulf Coast Tiger
This is the truth right here. Our team has it work cut out for them. QJ himself is a beast to contain but Kiffin will not stick to it unless way up. Dart will be lots trouble for us.
Posted on 9/25/23 at 8:36 pm to dcbl
I wouldn’t touch it with a Faggie dick
Posted on 9/25/23 at 8:49 pm to dcbl
quote:
do the gamblers have a better handle on this
Of course they do, but you're not comparing apples to apples. Unlike ESPN, Sagarin, FPI or any other predictive analytics, Vegas must factor in the betting habits of the public. A large part of their formula is based on historical betting habits.
Posted on 9/25/23 at 9:27 pm to AGGIES
A -2.5 spread is essentially a pick ‘em
Posted on 9/25/23 at 9:27 pm to dcbl
It's been explained a thousand times. They set it to get even money on both sides. Vegas doesn't give a shite about who wins a fb game or who "should be favored"
Some of you are too stupid to be gambling
Some of you are too stupid to be gambling
This post was edited on 9/25/23 at 9:28 pm
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