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re: How the hell is the Race so close?

Posted on 11/7/18 at 12:28 pm to
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63965 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 12:28 pm to
I don't think they surveyed middle class suburban white women. Those are probably rural white women, or much older white women.
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

WTH is with "Others"? And literally no number for Latinos???


My guess was Asians/Middle Eastern?

And yeah, the Latino numbers seemed very weird. it is only a sample size of 2500 or so though... but the numbers (re: white men/women) were largely similar to several other sources I'd seen (just can't find the post that had them).
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

I don't think they surveyed middle class suburban white women. Those are probably rural white women, or much older white women.


Certainly room for sample size (or location) bias... will be interesting to see if there is a better breakdown of the numbers as the calcs are finalized.
Posted by S1C EM
Athens, GA
Member since Nov 2007
11585 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

My guess was Asians/Middle Eastern?


Sure, I figured. But to be completely devoid of Latino numbers???
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

I don't think they surveyed middle class suburban white women. Those are probably rural white women, or much older white women.


Here was another poll that went a little differently:

But hardly the mass exodus of (R) votes from white women that you were mentioning...

And for reference, the poll was about 50% suburban demos...

Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63965 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 2:37 pm to
So who, in those mostly white suburbs, are voting for Abrams and winning Cobb/Gwinnett?
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63965 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 2:37 pm to
Hopefully we get some better data.
Posted by agentoranj1990
Mableton
Member since Oct 2016
910 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 7:25 pm to
I voted for Kemp but I think his campaign adds were stupid. His base supporters liked it but I think it turned off a lot of undecided voters. He finally toned down the adds but he already gave Abrams tons of ammo to go on TV shows and for her to showcase this stuff. I thought he could have pushed his conservative agenda in a more effective way. Really focus on what the Republicans have been doing to pull in big corporations and create jobs. The Republicans should take note because 60 thousand more votes and we're looking at a Democratic governor.
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63965 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

I voted for Kemp but I think his campaign adds were stupid. His base supporters liked it but I think it turned off a lot of undecided voters. He finally toned down the adds but he already gave Abrams tons of ammo to go on TV shows and for her to showcase this stuff. I thought he could have pushed his conservative agenda in a more effective way. Really focus on what the Republicans have been doing to pull in big corporations and create jobs. The Republicans should take note because 60 thousand more votes and we're looking at a Democratic governor.


I used to think like you too.

I eventually realized that being a softy republican doesn't get you jack shite points with people who vote strictly on identity politics- namely race and sex. Nor does it get you jack shite points with white liberals. You may get a couple of moderates to vote your way, but what you pick up from that demo just gets lost from the base that decides not to vote, or even worse, voting libertarian.

But I get where you're coming from.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25594 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 8:00 pm to
Do we really think a 30 second TV commercial determines whether someone votes republican or democrat?

Are we really that flippant?

Posted by BranchDawg
Flowery Branch
Member since Nov 2013
9830 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 8:02 pm to
quote:

Do we really think a 30 second TV commercial determines whether someone votes republican or democrat? Are we really that flippant?


No, but could it infuriate a democrat non-voter enough to get them to the polls? Possibly, and that's practically the same thing.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25594 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 8:08 pm to
Which Kemp commercial was infuriating?
Posted by BranchDawg
Flowery Branch
Member since Nov 2013
9830 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 8:08 pm to
To liberals? Probably a lot of them.
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63965 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 8:36 pm to
quote:

Which Kemp commercial was infuriating?


The one that endeared him to the base and put him over the top vs Cagle, wherein he said "I've got a big ol' truck I can use to round up criminal illegal aliens and take them back to the border myself.. yep, I just said that. If you want a politically incorrect conservative, that's me".

Posted by Long Dawg
Acworth, GA
Member since Dec 2017
2046 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 8:49 pm to
Every time a new “Hip Hop Atlanta” or “Real Housewives of Atlanta” or “TI & Tiny” episode comes on TV, Georgia Demographics shift a point.
Posted by baconwaffle
Houston
Member since Jan 2013
589 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 9:40 pm to
I thought I could add some insight about the proposed "Trump wall" because it was brought up a few times, and I assume most people aren't familiar with the situation on the Southwestern border.

The primary job of a Border Patrol Agent (BPA) is to track and detain illegal entries into the United States. Most of the Southwestern border is desolate, and most points along the border are tens-to-hundreds of miles away from the nearest population center (where illegal aliens can easily escape into society). Between ground sensors, radar, and tracking footpaths, BPAs who are mounted on horseback or in a vehicle will have hours, if not days, to track and apprehend an illegal entry before the alien reaches the safety of a population center. Erecting a wall in the desolate stretches of the border will do absolutely nothing. In desolate areas, an alien can easily scale a wall and avoid visual detection because BPAs patrol in desolate areas (unlike urban areas where they stay on a fixed location).

Which brings me to the urban areas. We already have walls. More specifically fences. The Obama administration (yes, you heard that right) signed legislation to construct 20' border fences with hollow iron pickets that are then filled with concrete. These are in place in all urban environments along the border. Though they would not be effective in desolate environments, they are critical in urban environments. The 1-2 minutes it takes an alien to scale a wall in a desolate environment makes no difference if there is not a nearby BPA. However, the 1-2 minutes in an urban environment gives a BPA who is 100-200 yards away enough time to interdict and apprehend the alien before they disappear into the city.

I have seen the "Trump wall" prototypes on display in San Diego in the event that Congress appropriates for it. The prototypes range between 30' and 50'. However, they are all solid walls of concrete with no line-of-sight to the other side. This is a major problem because if BPAs can't see aliens approaching the wall, then the available response time decreases. And make no mistake, they will scale these walls.

We need help on the Border. But a bigger (and absurdly expensive) wall is not going to help. We need more Agents and more tech. Most of our radar is on loan from Israel. It would be nice to have our own. Ultimately, don't let rhetorical red meat get in the way of practical solutions.
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63965 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 9:50 pm to
Good insight. Thanks for posting. You make some great points.


Posted by bigdawg7780
SC
Member since Oct 2013
2789 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 9:53 pm to
Use drones, armed drones

If caught by a drone and you stop on the command you will be picked up and sent back.

If you run you will be tranquilized then sent back.

If you fire a firearm at the drone you will be considered an enemy combatant and hostile invader of the United States. The drone will then deploy its M134 and your perforated body will be sent back.
Posted by SquatchDawg
Cohutta Wilderness
Member since Sep 2012
14180 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 9:58 pm to
quote:

This ain't gonna fly. Not when the party you're running against is offering free, unrestricted citizenship.


Not only that but this horse is already out of the barn. We need to fast track citizenship for anyone already here with a clean record and lock down afterward. The NO AMNESTY cry is a good one but totally unrealistic at this point.
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 10:15 pm to
quote:

I thought I could add some insight about the proposed "Trump wall" because it was brought up a few times, and I assume most people aren't familiar with the situation on the Southwestern border.

The primary job of a Border Patrol Agent (BPA) is to track and detain illegal entries into the United States. Most of the Southwestern border is desolate, and most points along the border are tens-to-hundreds of miles away from the nearest population center (where illegal aliens can easily escape into society). Between ground sensors, radar, and tracking footpaths, BPAs who are mounted on horseback or in a vehicle will have hours, if not days, to track and apprehend an illegal entry before the alien reaches the safety of a population center. Erecting a wall in the desolate stretches of the border will do absolutely nothing. In desolate areas, an alien can easily scale a wall and avoid visual detection because BPAs patrol in desolate areas (unlike urban areas where they stay on a fixed location).

Which brings me to the urban areas. We already have walls. More specifically fences. The Obama administration (yes, you heard that right) signed legislation to construct 20' border fences with hollow iron pickets that are then filled with concrete. These are in place in all urban environments along the border. Though they would not be effective in desolate environments, they are critical in urban environments. The 1-2 minutes it takes an alien to scale a wall in a desolate environment makes no difference if there is not a nearby BPA. However, the 1-2 minutes in an urban environment gives a BPA who is 100-200 yards away enough time to interdict and apprehend the alien before they disappear into the city.

I have seen the "Trump wall" prototypes on display in San Diego in the event that Congress appropriates for it. The prototypes range between 30' and 50'. However, they are all solid walls of concrete with no line-of-sight to the other side. This is a major problem because if BPAs can't see aliens approaching the wall, then the available response time decreases. And make no mistake, they will scale these walls.

We need help on the Border. But a bigger (and absurdly expensive) wall is not going to help. We need more Agents and more tech. Most of our radar is on loan from Israel. It would be nice to have our own. Ultimately, don't let rhetorical red meat get in the way of practical solutions.



I've got friends that train @ FLETC and friends in CBP who to a man basically have given me the same general opinion/breakdown, so glad to hear it from someone I don't know personally as well. I'm not anti-crackdown on immigration... simply that the logistics of the proposed wall are costly and likely to be ineffective from a purely logical standpoint.

In your opinion if more efforts were placed in offering legitimate immigration channels (more effort placed on efficiency of processing things like requests for asylum) would that make the illegal immigration less frequent and easier to prevent/enforce or no? I legitimately am uncertain... and frankly hadn't given it much thought until it was brought up as perhaps a more reasonable approach to handling the "incoming migrant horde... I mean caravan" we keep hearing about. Part of me says yeah, because there would be less of it, but then in the back of my mind, I imagine that some of this is caught due to larger groups of individuals attempting to sneak in? Sincerely curious what the general thought would be from someone actually living this day in/day out.
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