ESPN's David Hale: How Someone Can Beat Georgia

quote:

---

How someone can beat Georgia

There's a good argument to be made that, if you have to dig deep into the advanced metrics to make a case against Georgia, it's probably not worth making the case. Indeed, you'll hear no Bulldogs slander here. Kirby Smart has the nation's best team.

But let's say we're given a message from the future, and it tells us that Georgia won't win the national championship. In that universe, what might have gone wrong?

For the bulk of this season, the conventional wisdom was that an offensive juggernaut would go toe-to-toe with Georgia's overwhelming defense, and more often than not, the name of that juggernaut was Ohio State. As the great Lee Corso would say ... Not so fast, my friend.

Michigan's pass rush exposed Ohio State's vulnerabilities, and the duo of Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo made the Buckeyes' talented offense look mortal. It's not hard to see how Georgia would've done the same.

And all of that suggests we might have been entirely wrong about the blueprint for beating the Dawgs, and in retrospect, it should've been obvious.

Using offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) for each of Georgia's 10 Power 5 opponents, the Bulldogs have played four above-average offensive units: Tennessee, Arkansas and Kentucky. Georgia dominated all three games.

The Dawgs have played just one above-average defense, however. That was Clemson, in the opener. Georgia didn't score an offensive touchdown. Or consider a far more relatable metric: yards per dropback. The three best defenses Georgia faced were Clemson, Florida and South Carolina. The three best offenses were Tennessee, Arkansas and Kentucky. Against the top offenses, Georgia's defensive EPA dropped by about 10 points from its Power 5 average. Against the top defenses, its offense declined by nearly 14 points.

In other words, Georgia is likely to struggle more against a great defense than a great offense.

This shouldn't be a surprise, given where Georgia's best talent resides. On defense, the Dawgs are loaded with blue-chippers at every level. Jordan Davis, Nakobe Dean, Derion Kendrick -- there's a long list of potential defensive MVPs. On offense, however, Georgia looks human. Stetson Bennett has been wonderful, but he's not a future NFL star. The backfield of Zamir White, James Cook, Kendall Milton and crew are all talented, but none have been All-Americans. Aside from tight end Brock Bowers, there isn't a true five-star superstar on that side of the ball. So, which unit was always more likely to have a bad game: the blue-chip D or the makeshift O?

All of this gets to another interesting point: With Oklahoma and Ohio State losing in Week 13 (and Alabama struggling against Auburn), there's a good chance that the best offenses in the country won't be in the playoff this year, but some truly impressive defenses (Oklahoma State, Michigan and Cincinnati all rank in the top 10 in adjusted defensive EPA) could be.

Again, none of this is to suggest Georgia shouldn't be the prohibitive favorite should the Dawgs make the playoff. But if they do, the path to a national championship might actually be a bit tougher without Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State in their way. -- David Hale

---