re: Will ND get in at 10-2 over a 9-3 SEC team this season?

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I don't think the committee would move ND down in the last rankings unless they had last year's head to head situation (which they also had pressure to get an ACC team in unlike this years rules).

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I think you’re correct on two things:

1) If Duke had an AQ last year (like they would this year) I don’t think they would’ve flipped ND/Miami, because the ACC would’ve been in. I think what they would’ve done is left BYU at #11, and keep that buffer between #10 ND and #12 Miami. Once UVA lost to Duke, that’s when the decision was made to flip ND/Miami.

2) If ND is at #11 or #12 entering the last week, then I also agree they wouldn’t just randomly move ND to #13 to protect the #10 team. But I think it’d be more along the lines that they’d have ND so low after the 2nd loss to prevent it from coming into play.

If there’s a 2nd loss, it’d almost certainly be either to Miami on 11/07 or SMU on 11/21. If Miami, they’ll move ND into the 20s. If SMU, they’ll move ND to the lower teens, so there’s no real way to make up the ground in that amount of time. Even if they think ND should be higher than what they actually rank them, it really doesn’t matter whether you’re #13, 15, 19 or 22.

But I’d be shocked if ND actually finishes #11 or 12 (or even #13, because that’d invite controversy the other way). Think it’ll be either firmly top-10 (if 11-1 or 12-0) or #14 or lower (if 10-2 or worse).