Started By
Message
Why is Florida @Kentucky being forecasted by Vegas as it is?
Posted on 9/13/19 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 9/13/19 at 1:52 pm
Definitely the game of the week (though KState at State could be a fun one). Question: Florida is a top 10-ranked team, while Kentucky is NR. So what’s with the tight prediction? The betting lines/odds make it appear that an upset isn’t at all beyond the realm of possibility. Is that based entirely on last year’s outcome?
It’d be great to see a good game between these two, since almost every other matchup this week is oh so cupcakey. But on paper, this one looks like it should be a big Florida win.
—————-
No. 9 Florida Gators (2-0, 0-0 SEC) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (2-0, 0-0 SEC)
Date: Saturday, Sept. 14, 2019
Time: 7 p.m. EST
Venue: Kroger Field – Lexington, KY
Coverage: ESPN
Moneyline: FLA: (-320) | UK: (+250)
Spread: FLA: -8 (-110) | UK: +8 (-110)
Total: 48.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: FLA: 61% | UK: 39%
Odds to Win 2020 College Football Playoff: FLA: (+4000) | UK: (+20000)
Odds to Win SEC Championship: FLA: (+1000) | UK: (+15000)
STATS NOTES - Florida vs Kentucky Head-to-Head Record & Betting Trends
- Kentucky defeated Florida, 27-16, on the road in Gainesville in the the most recent meeting between these programs on Sept. 8, 2018.
- Florida is 4-1 in its last five head-to-head matchups against Kentucky.
- Florida is 9-1 in its last 10 head-to-head matchups against Kentucky.
- Prior to last year's win by Kentucky, Florida had beaten the Wildcats in 31 straight meetings.
- Florida defeated UT-Martin, 45-0, at home in Gainesville in Week 2.
- Kentucky defeated Eastern Michigan, 38-17, at home in Lexington in Week 2.
- Kentucky lost its starting quarterback Terry Wilson Jr. for the remainder of the season last week after he suffered a reported torn patellar tendon in his left knee.
It’d be great to see a good game between these two, since almost every other matchup this week is oh so cupcakey. But on paper, this one looks like it should be a big Florida win.
—————-
No. 9 Florida Gators (2-0, 0-0 SEC) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (2-0, 0-0 SEC)
Date: Saturday, Sept. 14, 2019
Time: 7 p.m. EST
Venue: Kroger Field – Lexington, KY
Coverage: ESPN
Moneyline: FLA: (-320) | UK: (+250)
Spread: FLA: -8 (-110) | UK: +8 (-110)
Total: 48.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: FLA: 61% | UK: 39%
Odds to Win 2020 College Football Playoff: FLA: (+4000) | UK: (+20000)
Odds to Win SEC Championship: FLA: (+1000) | UK: (+15000)
STATS NOTES - Florida vs Kentucky Head-to-Head Record & Betting Trends
- Kentucky defeated Florida, 27-16, on the road in Gainesville in the the most recent meeting between these programs on Sept. 8, 2018.
- Florida is 4-1 in its last five head-to-head matchups against Kentucky.
- Florida is 9-1 in its last 10 head-to-head matchups against Kentucky.
- Prior to last year's win by Kentucky, Florida had beaten the Wildcats in 31 straight meetings.
- Florida defeated UT-Martin, 45-0, at home in Gainesville in Week 2.
- Kentucky defeated Eastern Michigan, 38-17, at home in Lexington in Week 2.
- Kentucky lost its starting quarterback Terry Wilson Jr. for the remainder of the season last week after he suffered a reported torn patellar tendon in his left knee.
This post was edited on 9/13/19 at 1:56 pm
10
Posted on 9/13/19 at 1:54 pm to EKG
Florida is ranked in the top 10 due to name recognition. Who else would you put there at this point?
Posted on 9/13/19 at 1:56 pm to lsupride87
I think you mean due to TV ratings. That's really all the rankings are for now. To build hype for tv.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 1:56 pm to EKG
The fact that Kentucky is at home makes a difference. The truth is the difference between the 10th and 30th ranked teams really isn't that big.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 2:03 pm to EKG
Here are the stats I look at when gambling:
% Against the Spread: UF 50% v. UK 100%
% Games Covering Over: UF 0% v. UK 100%
Roster Talent Rank: UF 16th v. UK 34th
Returning Offensive Production: UF 77% v. UK 64%
Returning Defensive Production: UF 71% v. UK 39%
Offensive Yards Per Play: UF 5.6 v. UK 6.2
Defensive Yards Per Play: UF 4.1 v. UK 5.1
Points Scored Per Game: UF 24 v. UK 38
Points Allowed Per Game: UF 20 v. UK 20.5
Turnover Margin: UF -3 v. UK +0.5
Strength of Schedule: UF 20th v. UK 92nd
% Against the Spread: UF 50% v. UK 100%
% Games Covering Over: UF 0% v. UK 100%
Roster Talent Rank: UF 16th v. UK 34th
Returning Offensive Production: UF 77% v. UK 64%
Returning Defensive Production: UF 71% v. UK 39%
Offensive Yards Per Play: UF 5.6 v. UK 6.2
Defensive Yards Per Play: UF 4.1 v. UK 5.1
Points Scored Per Game: UF 24 v. UK 38
Points Allowed Per Game: UF 20 v. UK 20.5
Turnover Margin: UF -3 v. UK +0.5
Strength of Schedule: UF 20th v. UK 92nd
Posted on 9/13/19 at 2:08 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Florida is ranked in the top 10 due to name recognition. Who else would you put there at this point?
That may be part of it, but that pass rush could totally neutralize a lot of top teams.
It’ll be interesting to see how their season plays out.
I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat LSU or UGA (maybe mildly surprised but definitely not shocked). Hopefully if it happens, it’ll be the latter.
I also wouldn’t be shocked if they dropped one they should win. Maybe this is that game?
This post was edited on 9/13/19 at 2:08 pm
Posted on 9/13/19 at 2:11 pm to RoscoeHarper
quote:
The fact that Kentucky is at home makes a difference. The truth is the difference between the 10th and 30th ranked teams really isn't that big.
UK at home definitely gives them a little boost, but it's completely negated and then some by losing their QB. The backup will have a lot on his shoulders for his first game starting.
That being said, I think the spread looks pretty accurate, I would maybe put it at 7 if it were solely up to my gut. This'll be a close game and UK is more than capable of pulling the upset.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 2:21 pm to EKG
It opened at 11 or 12 didn't it? That's giving UK 3 or 3 1/2 for it being at home...so it opened basically as UF as a two touchdown favorite.
This post was edited on 9/13/19 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 9/13/19 at 2:28 pm to EKG
Felipe Franks is better than Tim Tebow that's why
Posted on 9/13/19 at 2:30 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Florida is ranked in the top 10 due to name recognition. Who else would you put there at this point?
I’d also say it’s because we were hot at the end of 2018. But based on what I’ve seen so far, I’d agree we don’t look like a top ten team.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 2:32 pm to yatesdog38
Lots of breeders nearby, so Gator QB will be distracted.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 2:32 pm to Cheese Grits
Posted on 9/13/19 at 2:48 pm to Cheese Grits
insert lazy "Franks looks like an alpaca joke" here
Posted on 9/13/19 at 3:16 pm to RazorBroncs
quote:
UK at home definitely gives them a little boost, but it's completely negated and then some by losing their QB. The backup will have a lot on his shoulders for his first game starting.
This should put paid to the debate. If the starting Kentucky QB was good to go they'd be my pick of the week. With a new QB they aren't.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 3:19 pm to Arksulli
quote:He won Dollar General bowl last year while starting for Troy if that makes you feel better.
This should put paid to the debate. If the starting Kentucky QB was good to go they'd be my pick of the week. With a new QB they aren't.
Do you think the players swag bag for that game is full of items under a dollar?
Posted on 9/13/19 at 3:21 pm to Arksulli
quote:
This should put paid to the debate. If the starting Kentucky QB was good to go they'd be my pick of the week. With a new QB they aren't.
Normally I would agree with the, but didn't the UK QB in 2011 go down just before the Tennessee game. UK won at home I believe.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 3:25 pm to EKG
8 points is a solid number. It’s all about matchups. UK matches up well with Florida’s weak OL. In reality the #5 team may struggle more with the #25 team than they would the #4 team if the #25 teams philosophy is a tough fit. It’s why the triple option teams randomly compete with teams with exponentially more talent, but then also get blown out of the water by G5 teams.
Also if rankings didn’t begin until week 3, both teams would currently be NR. Vegas knows this and plans accordingly.
Also if rankings didn’t begin until week 3, both teams would currently be NR. Vegas knows this and plans accordingly.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 3:55 pm to EKG
Florida's ranking is for name only. It' a bit surprising they are ranked at all, much less the top 10.
Kentucky is a better team in recent years, as proven by the 10 win season last year, 2-0 this year, and playing at home.
It's a toss up even with Wilson out.
Kentucky is a better team in recent years, as proven by the 10 win season last year, 2-0 this year, and playing at home.
It's a toss up even with Wilson out.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 3:59 pm to kywildcatfanone
quote:
It's a toss up even with Wilson out.
It's an 8 pt spread with the game in Lexington.
Not really a toss up, according to Vegas.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 4:11 pm to kywildcatfanone
It isn't a toss up. It's why UF is a eight point favorite at your house. You just want to believe it's a toss up.
Page 1 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News