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re: SOS of the Big 5 + A&M Since Expansion
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:03 pm to thunderbird1100
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:03 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
I think the clear argument is Alabama's schedule is pretty light by mere comparison, end of story.
#1 - Tennessee has been average to bad the last 7 years. That's been helpful to Alabama's schedule, especially compared to Georgia (and Florida, I guess, though Alabama has played Florida a lot since 2012 and beaten their brains in every single time)
#2 - Alabama cannot play Alabama. People like to laugh at that, but it's absolutely legitimate, especially when we're down to splitting hairs. If you play Alabama every year, you get a Top 2/Top 5/Top 10/Top 25 game added from Alabama every single season. Alabama does not have an opponent on our schedule even close to that (because there isn't another one nationally since 2012 that exists).
#3 - For whatever reason, Alabama's random east opponents have petered out a bit, as have some of the OOC teams. 2018 Missouri was mediocre. 2015 UGA ended up being pretty bleh. 2014 Florida was awful. 2012 Missouri was awful right before being really good the next few seasons.
The biggest difference is Alabama never loses games to teams that go 8-5. Ever. Literally, Alabama has not lost a game to an unranked team in a decade. Everyone else does. On top of that, if you went down the list of regular season record vs teams that finished in the Top 25 Alabama would have the best % record and in all liklihood the most wins, too.
So, I don't disagree that in the end our schedules have come up a little bit easier than some others, but I do take issue when it starts to be used as sort of an excuse for why Alabama is HERE and everyone else is down here. That's just kind of silly given the overwhelming gap in historical data the last decade.
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 1:05 pm
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Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:07 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Bama somehow has failed to play a single team out of the East during the regular season that finished in the Top 20 at the end of the year. THAT is the biggest issue with the schedules today.
The SEC Office at work.
Back in 2011, I did something similar, except I used all teams, going back to 1992. Auburn had the hardest schedule and I think Ole Miss was the only team with an easier conference schedule then Alabama. Ole Miss plays Vanderbilt every year, and back then, Alabama did also.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
That isn't their problem between being current Auburn and being current Alabama.
No that's called recruiting. Which is why up until about this year no one has been close to "current Alabama." Georgia is now finally about to come close to having as much talent on a roster, but for the past 8 years or so the gap between Alabama and everyone else in the SEC has been enormous.
quote:
I don't think any Auburn fans are mad at Gus for his record vs Alabama. Most are irritated with Gus for games like MSU, Tennessee, UCF, etc sprinkled on top of those games.
I get that. I'd be pissed too. Going through their losses, here are Gus' losses to teams that finished outside the AP Top 25 at the end of the season:
2018: at Mississippi State (#8 in S&P+)
2018: Tennessee (#48 in S&P+)
2016: Texas A&M (#27 in S&P+)
2016: at Georgia (#42 in S&P+)
2015: at Arkansas (#14 in S&P+)
2015: Georgia (#18 in S&P+)
2014: Texas A&M (#15 in S&P+)
While none of those losses are ideal or would be considered "acceptable" to any top program, those are the types of games a team is capable of losing when they are flat warn out.
Four of those 7 teams above finished in the #26-#30 range in the Final AP Poll of the season.... only two were completely missing from the Recieving Votes section in the Final Poll:
2014 Texas A&M
2018 Tennessee
S&P+ probably over-ranks the SEC in most years, but the above S&P+ ranking shows that very few of these losses were to simply horrific teams.
The loss to Tennessee last year is the real head-scratcher. It's quite honestly inexcusable. It's Gus' only loss to a team that failed to qualify for a bowl game.
With that said though, if Auburn had played one less ranked opponent each season compared to what they have played in actuality, how many of the other "bad" losses listed above wouldn't have occurred? It's impossible to know, but I imagine a few of those might also disappear.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:14 pm to BHMKyle
Telling me Alabama skates to the championship each year is like saying water is wet.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
So, I don't disagree that in the end our schedules have come up a little bit easier than some others, but I do take issue when it starts to be used as sort of an excuse for why Alabama is HERE and everyone else is down here. That's just kind of silly given the overwhelming gap in historical data the last decade.
I dont think that should be an argument for anyone. I think Bama maybe loses a few more games playing a much tougher schedule, like say Auburn's over the past several years, but it's certainly not why there's a gap between auburn and bama by any means. It's just exacerbating that already wide gap by some more
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:17 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Dont think the argument here should be Auburn is an easier schedule away from winning more nattys or being elite. I think the clear argument is Alabama's schedule is pretty light by mere comparison, end of story.
Well yes, this was my point from the beginning. SOmehow its morphed into a conversation about Auburn.
And I'll be the first to admit Georgia has enjoyed a somewhat weaker schedule by playing in the East which for the past 7 years has been a clearly easier division.
With that said, Georgia's annual Western rival (Auburn) has clearly been more formidable than Bama's annual Eastern opponent (Tennessee). And Georgia has done a pretty good job of playing decent OOC competition:
2013: #8 Clemson
2014: #8 Georgia Tech
2014: #15 Clemson
2017: #15 Notre Dame
Meanwhile Bama played one OOC team that finished in the Top 20.
My point is that at some point the SEC needs to admit that Tennessee just isn't ever going to return to the days of Neyland and mix up the schedules a bit. THAT is the main issue.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:18 pm to BHMKyle
2013: Miami, FSU
2017: Michigan
Fixed it for you
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:20 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
The biggest difference is Alabama never loses games to teams that go 8-5. Ever
The contrast to auburn is that losing to "that team" now makes them 9-4 with a win over a talented opponent (and that makes them ranked in the top 25 most seasons).
Auburn is first on this list because they lose so much. It by definition helps keep their opponents in the rankings (or ranked higher).
And the converse is true for Bama. Tack on 2 more losses per regular season and see how many more opponents are suddenly ranked (or ranked higher with a win over Saban).
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:22 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
1. Auburn- 492
2. Texas A&M- 425
3. Florida- 407
4. LSU- 388
5. Georgia- 319
6. Alabama- 243
Just as an example - Auburn gets 165-170 points from Alabama. Alabama gets roughly 50 points from Auburn.
That's a swing of 100+ points solely from Alabama playing Auburn and Auburn playing Alabama. That makes the entire thing look quite a bit different. It's certainly not all of it, but it is definitely part of it.
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:23 pm to meansonny
quote:
The contrast to auburn is that losing to "that team" now makes them 9-4 with a win over a talented opponent (and that makes them ranked in the top 25 most seasons).
Auburn is first on this list because they lose so much. It by definition helps keep their opponents in the rankings (or ranked higher).
And the converse is true for Bama. Tack on 2 more losses per regular season and see how many more opponents are suddenly ranked (or ranked higher with a win over Saban).
Agree, that's definitely part of this. Auburn's win over Alabama in 2013 lost luster because Alabama lost to Auburn and dropped
It's an imperfect science but your work sorts it out about as well as anyone could
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:24 pm to BHMKyle
I guess this means that we've replaced Tennessee as a member of the Big 6. 
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:26 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
With that said though, if Auburn had played one less ranked opponent each season compared to what they have played in actuality, how many of the other "bad" losses listed above wouldn't have occurred? It's impossible to know, but I imagine a few of those might also disappear.
Auburn is certainly at a disadvantage compared to most with the rise of Georgia and Alabama's current state (and playing the rest of the season in the still difficult SEC West). Auburn probably the biggest disadvantage in college football there, and the fact that they've won as much as they have the last 10 years is pretty damned impressive, as much as I hate to admit it.
Their margin for error (in general terms) is incredibly slim.
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 1:27 pm
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:27 pm to NocaHomas Teepee
quote:
Just spot checking your work:
You weren’t spot checking .... you were looking for one season.
Sure, there are two or three or four of those seasons mixed-in, out of twenty-seven.
Twenty-seven years where we have finished with Tennessee, Florida and Clemson on our schedule with eleven of those years having Arkansas from the West thrown in to end the season during their heydays.
Not to mention facing Bama during their national championships, and Auburn and great LSU teams plus Clemson, plus even hitting Arkansas and Miss State and Ole Miss during their banner years in the West.
Georgia plays Auburn every year, Tennessee plays Bama every year. Who has another tough draw from the SEC West as their cross-divisional rival every year? Florida, yes LSU absolutely. SC vs A&M .... it’s a good matchup that will only get better. Kentucky and MSU is well matched and Ole Miss-Vandy has a long history.
Pairing the cross divisional rivals is one thing the SEC office actually got right so far, given how they were hampered by the whole Mizzou in the East thing. That’s where they get it wrong.
Auburn should be in the East. A lot of issues would be solved by putting Auburn in the East and Mizzou in the West. The problem, of course, is the Bama-Tennessee traditional rivalry.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:28 pm to Diesel88
quote:
quote:
MOST DIFFICULT CROSS DIVISIONAL SCHEDULES: 1. Florida- 134
STTDB
So you are mad at UF for playing a difficult schedule?
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
The biggest difference is Alabama never loses games to teams that go 8-5. Ever.
Yes this is true. But when you feast on cupcakes week after week, it makes beating those 4 and 5 loss teams a whole lot easier.
Just look at Bama's schedule last season with S&P+ rank for each opponent:
Week 1: #98 Louisville
Week 2: #72 Arkansas State
Week 3: #33 Ole Miss (5-7)
Week 4: #11 Texas A&M (9-4)
Week 5: #95 Louisiana
Week 6: #53 Arkansas
Week 7: #12 Missouri (8-5)
Week 8: #48 Tennessee
Week 9: OFF
Week 10: #5 LSU
Week 11: #8 Mississippi State
Week 12: FCS The Citidel
Week 13: #7 Auburn (8-5)
Like I said earlier, S&P+ over-ranks the SEC. Missouri, Mississippi State, and Auburn all finished the year unranked in the AP.
So until Week 11 when Bama traveled down to Baton Rouge, it had played one semi-good team which was Texas A&M, at home, way back in Week 4.
I mean its a bit easier to get up for those 4 and 5 loss type teams when you've played the likes of Louisville, Tennessee, and Arkansas State all in between.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:29 pm to BHMKyle
Kyle, why don't you take everyone's top team off the schedule? That way no Bama bump.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:31 pm to BHMKyle
Georgia fans are pretty cocky for a program that has lost to Tennessee two out of the last four years and wasn't won a national title in almost fourty years. Shouldn't Georgia have some actual success before kicking teams out of the big six (especially when they are the least successful program historically out of the big six).
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:33 pm to BHMKyle
quote:lets not gloss over this. Thanks
Sure, Gus has had some questionable in-game decision making
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:34 pm to bigDgator
quote:
So you are mad at UF for playing a difficult schedule?
No. Florida has the most difficult cross divisional schedule on this list because they play LSU every year. So I'm telling Florida to bend over and STTDB. Pretty simple. Read a book.
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:35 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Just look at Bama's schedule last season with S&P+ rank for each opponent:
Alabama finished the regular season playing 4 of the top 12 in the country per S&P+ and beat them by 29, 29, 24 and 31.
quote:
So until Week 11 when Bama traveled down to Baton Rouge, it had played one semi-good team which was Texas A&M, at home, way back in Week 4.
I mean, that sounds more like an argument against back-loading of a schedule. And I agree.
Per S&P+
Week 1-9 : 2 Top 12 Opponents out of 8 (#11 A&M, #12 Mizzou)
Week 10-Title Game : 6 Top 12 Opponents out of 7 (#5 LSU, #8 MSU, #7 Auburn, #2 UGA, #4 Oklahoma, #1 Clemson)
Alabama ended up playing 8 of the 11 best teams in the country (excluding Alabama) per S&P+, only missing Ohio State, Florida and Michigan.
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 1:38 pm
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