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re: SOS of the Big 5 + A&M Since Expansion

Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:35 pm to
Posted by Philippines4LSU
Member since May 2018
8789 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:35 pm to
Alabama should have to play a real team from the East every year.

Maybe swap Kentucky with Tennessee?
Posted by dstone12
Texan
Member since Jan 2007
30052 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:35 pm to
quote:

MOST DIFFICULT CROSS DIVISIONAL SCHEDULES: 1. Florida- 134 2. Georgia- 108 3. LSU- 86 4. Auburn- 84 5. Texas A&M- 70 6. Alabama- 8



This right here should keep vol fans from shite-posting on the rant.

But no.
Posted by Rohan Gravy
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2017
18001 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:38 pm to
Translation to simple English...

Bamas are cheating pussies.

Posted by GatorOnAnIsland
Florida
Member since Jan 2019
5789 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:46 pm to
quote:

One more way to look at it.... you can take out the "Alabama can't play itself factor" by subtracting out the games played between Alabama and Auburn


Or you could look at it this way, if you look at the rotation of the earth and take into account the humidity factor of playing on a large peninsula and divide that by the time zones in play, you take that result and multiply it by the latitude of university location. If there was a full moon during any of said games then this result must be multiplied by 2. Also, being in close proximity to sea level rise needs to be addressed. So, your numbers are inaccurate.

This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 1:59 pm
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

The biggest difference is Alabama never loses games to teams that go 8-5. Ever.


One more thing...

Despite all the stockpiled talent and the perpetual #1 recruiting classes, even Bama occasionally struggles against not so great competition.

2017 Bama trailed nearly the entire game at 4-loss Mississippi State... a team Georgia and Auburn thrashed for 28 and 39 points, respectively. Bama needed a late MSU collapse to escape with a win.

2016 Bama traied most of the game and barely eked out a win at 7-loss Ole Miss... finally coming from behind to win 48-43.

2015 Bama narrowly escaped at home against 4-loss Tennessee, winning just 19-14.

2014 Bama did lose to 4-loss Ole Miss.

2014 Bama narrowly escaped Fayetteville, beating 6-loss Arkansas, 14-13

2014 Bama had to come from behind in the 4th quarter to beat 5-loss Auburn.

2013 Bama struggled to put away 4-loss Texas A&M back in 2013... winning 49-42.

2010 Bama did lose to 5-loss South Carolina by two touchdowns.

My point is that if Bama's schedule were more difficult, how many of these narrow victories against mediocre teams would have turned into narrow losses? When you see even Bama come out flat and struggle from time to time.... remember the The Citidel?.... it makes sense when teams with not as much stockpiled talent who are playing much more difficult schedules throughout the year that eventually wear them down, lay and egg and lose a game it shouldn't from time to time.
Posted by madmaxvol
Infinity + 1 Posts
Member since Oct 2011
19126 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:50 pm to
Interesting...for comparison, using your criteria...looking at points for how Tennessee's regular season opponents finished in the AP polls during that period:

2018 - 82
2017 - 57
2016 - 46
2015 - 49
2014 - 60
2013 - 105
2012 - 84
Total - 483

quote:

Here is how the Big 5 + Texas A&M compare going back to the 2012 Expansion:
1. Auburn- 492
2. Texas A&M- 425
3. Florida- 407
4. LSU- 388
5. Georgia- 319
6. Alabama- 243

At 483 points, Tennessee would be #2 on the overall list.

quote:

MOST DIFFICULT DIVISION SCHEDULES:
1. Texas A&M- 330
2. Auburn- 325
3. LSU- 272
4. Alabama- 205
5. Florida- 181
6. Georgia- 149

Division Schedule: 224 (Tennessee would be #4 on this list)

quote:

MOST DIFFICULT CROSS DIVISIONAL SCHEDULES:

1. Florida- 134
2. Georgia- 108
3. LSU- 86
4. Auburn- 84
5. Texas A&M- 70
6. Alabama- 8

Cross Division Schedule: 205 (Tennessee would be #1 on this list)

quote:

MOST DIFFICULT SEC SCHEDULES:

1. Auburn- 409
2. Texas A&M- 375
3. LSU- 358
4. Florida- 315
5. Georgia- 257
6. Alabama- 213

SEC Schedule: 429 (Tennessee would be #1 on this list)
quote:

MOST DIFFICULT OOC SCHEDULES:

1. Florida- 92
2. Auburn- 83
3. Georgia- 62
4. LSU- 30
5. Alabama- 30
6. Texas A&M- 25

OOC Schedule:54 (Tennessee would be #4 on this list)


Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:54 pm to
quote:

Alabama finished the regular season playing 4 of the top 12 in the country per S&P+ and beat them by 29, 29, 24 and 31.


Do you really think Texas A&M was a Top 12 team?
They beat Arkansas (2-10) by 7 points
They beat S. Carolina (7-6) by 3 points
They lost to Mississippi State by 15 points
They lost to Auburn

Do you really think Missouri was a Top 12 team?
They beat Purdue by just 3 points
They lost to South Carolina (7-6)
They beat Vanderbilt (6-7) by just 5 points
THey lost to Oklahoma State (7-6) in a bowl game

Do you really think Auburn was a Top 12 team?
They lost to Missisippi State (8-5) by 14 points
THey lost to Tennessee (5-7) at home


Look, S&P+ has its good qualities, but its obvious that it has a bit of a bias towards the SEC in most years.

As noted above, none of these were great teams, and I don't think you would even admit they were truly Top 12 teams with a straight face.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

My point is that if Bama's schedule were more difficult, how many of these narrow victories against mediocre teams would have turned into narrow losses?


Considering Alabama has won many of those games vs Top 20 level teams in the last 5-7 years in easy fashion.......I'm not sure it would change all that much at all. Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't, who knows?

Also......

quote:

2016 Bama traied most of the game and barely eked out a win at 7-loss Ole Miss... finally coming from behind to win 48-43.


Alabama didn't trail after the 12 minute mark of the 3rd quarter and led for the entire 4th quater (most of it by double digits). Ole Miss never had the ball in the 4th qtr with a chance to tie or take the lead.

quote:

2014 Bama had to come from behind in the 4th quarter to beat 5-loss Auburn.



Alabama led the entire 4th quarter, most if it by double digits. Auburn never had the ball in the last 9 minutes with a chance to tie or take the lead.

quote:

2013 Bama struggled to put away 4-loss Texas A&M back in 2013... winning 49-42.


Alabama led the entire game and most of the 2nd half by double digits. Texas A&M never had the ball in the 2nd half with a chance to tie or take the lead.


I mean, again, we're at this point with Alabama where we make arguments about games and seasons that would never be made about anyone else.
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 2:00 pm
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37574 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

Week 1: #98 Louisville
Week 2: #72 Arkansas State
Week 3: #33 Ole Miss (5-7)
Week 4: #11 Texas A&M (9-4)
Week 5: #95 Louisiana
Week 6: #53 Arkansas
Week 7: #12 Missouri (8-5)
Week 8: #48 Tennessee
Week 9: OFF
Week 10: #5 LSU
Week 11: #8 Mississippi State
Week 12: FCS The Citidel
Week 13: #7 Auburn (8-5)

In all fairness Bama has little control over their conference schedule and Tennessee really makes it a cushy schedule for Bama.

Bama also schedules really poorly when it comes to their OoC scheduling. But look at it this way. They, in their minds, are competing against Clemson and when you look at Clemson’s schedule is is actually weaker than Bama’s. Clemson actually does attempt to schedule-up with their OoC schedule. SC needs to make it tougher on them.

Bama may be having problems finding decent OoC opponents, who knows?

At SC we can always count on UNC and NC State to be the sacrificial lambs, or Central Florida or ECU, and we always are going to have Clemson on the slate. Notre Dame, So Cal and Texas have turned down requests for home and homes in recent years and the SEC discourages scheduling games against B1G opponents because of the bowl tie-ins.

Perhaps Bama is just having a hard time scheduling a PAC school or Notre Dame or even a B1G opponent like TTU or TCU or WVA or even Boise State or Utah (not B1G) during the regular season. They need to do something though. Schedule an ACC team like UNC or NC State or even Va Tech. BC or Miami even. Other SEC programs do it all the time.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

Do you really think Texas A&M was a Top 12 team?


quote:

Do you really think Missouri was a Top 12 team?


quote:

Do you really think Auburn was a Top 12 team?



Kyle, I only used S&P+ because you used S&P+. It's not really fair to use it in your argument then argue against it in a counter argument.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

Perhaps Bama is just having a hard time scheduling a PAC school


2016 - Southern Cal
2020 - Southern Cal

quote:

or Notre Dame

2028 - @ Notre Dame
2029 - Notre Dame

quote:

B1G opponent

2010 - Penn State
2011 - @ Penn State
2012 - Michigan
2015 - Wisconsin

quote:

TTU or TCU or WVA

2022 - @ Texas
2023 - Texas
2026 - @ WVU
2027 - WVU

quote:

Schedule an ACC team like UNC or NC State or even Va Tech. BC or Miami even.

2007 - Florida St
2008 - Clemson
2009 - Virginia Tech
2013 - Virginia Tech
2017 - Florida State
2019 - Duke
2021 - Miami



This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 2:05 pm
Posted by RT1941
Member since May 2007
30192 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 2:06 pm to
quote:

Sure, Gus has had some questionable in-game decision making
quote:

lets not gloss over this. Thanks


The list of Gus questionable in-game decision making in the last 5 seasons is longer than his 25 loss record.

Posted by RT1941
Member since May 2007
30192 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

BHMKyle

Kyle, it's great that you are a Gus supporter and will stand tall to defend him. Many of his own fans won't and if there was any truth to those leaks 7 months ago - a good portion of his own Administration wants/wanted him gone as well.

Hell, many AU posters on here swear AU will pay him +$30MM to fire him after this season if he produces the same results he's produced much of the last 5 yrs.
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37574 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 2:17 pm to
Good, glad to see Bama toughening-up their post-Saban schedule. Good for y'all. 2014, 2018?

Nevermind, it is a bad argument and splitting hairs on my part. You proved me wrong. I failed to remember some of those and obviously Bama is scheduling tougher in the future.



Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

scrooster




Looking forward to traveling to Cola this year. Always a fun trip. Wish we did it more often.
Posted by Leto II
Arrakis
Member since Dec 2018
21231 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

Kyle, I only used S&P+ because you used S&P+. It's not really fair to use it in your argument then argue against it in a counter argument.


I like to watch you argue with yourself
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

Kyle, it's great that you are a Gus supporter


I could care less who their coach is. My point is that it won't matter. They could bring in Dabo, Urban Meyer, etc. and as long as they play the entire SEC West + Georgia every single year.... plus a Top 15 OOC opponent each year as well, they are going to average 4 losses a year.

Pretty much any program would.

Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 2:27 pm to
(no message)
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 2:32 pm to
quote:

I like to watch you argue with yourself




Kyle is my boy - his stuff is great
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 6/25/19 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

Kyle, I only used S&P+ because you used S&P+.


Actually I used AP rankings originally.... I only brought S&P+ into the equation when we began looking at teams that finished outside the AP Top 25.

The fact of the matter is Bama plays the easiest schedule in the league..... yes, it helps that Bama doesn't play itself... but its obvious that doesn't explain everything.

Bama has a distinct advantage of playing Tennessee every season while its make threats in the West (LSU and Auburn) play Florida and Georgia, annually. There is no debating that is a huge advantage.

Call it luck or call it a miracle, but Bama also ALWAYS seems to catch its rotating East opponent when they are down.

Throw in there the fact that Bama has played a very, very easy OOC schedule... especially compared to most of its SEC peers... and when you add it all together Bama has had a MAJOR scheduling advantage.

My point in all this is that things need to be evened out. The divisions are not equal. The schedules are not close to equal. There needs to be a better way of doing this.

That's my whole point.
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