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SOS of the Big 5 + A&M Since Expansion
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:25 pm
Here is a method I came up with that measures schedule strength during the regular season. You get points for playing opponents that FINISH in the AP Top 25. 25 points for playing a #1 team; 24 points for playing a #2 team, etc. all the way down to getting 1 point for playing a team that finished #25.
Here is how the Big 5 + Texas A&M compare going back to the 2012 Expansion:
1. Auburn- 492
2. Texas A&M- 425
3. Florida- 407
4. LSU- 388
5. Georgia- 319
6. Alabama- 243
The gap between the hardest (Auburn) and the easiest (Alabama) is insane.... literally more than double.
And before Bama fans reply back that its because they can't play themselves, you are wrong. I'm sure that has something to do with it, but its also in large part playing a ridiculously soft Cross-Division schedule along with a ridiculously easy OOC schedule.
Here are the categories broken down:
MOST DIFFICULT DIVISION SCHEDULES:
1. Texas A&M- 330
2. Auburn- 325
3. LSU- 272
4. Alabama- 205
5. Florida- 181
6. Georgia- 149
MOST DIFFICULT CROSS DIVISIONAL SCHEDULES:
1. Florida- 134
2. Georgia- 108
3. LSU- 86
4. Auburn- 84
5. Texas A&M- 70
6. Alabama- 8
MOST DIFFICULT SEC SCHEDULES:
1. Auburn- 409
2. Texas A&M- 375
3. LSU- 358
4. Florida- 315
5. Georgia- 257
6. Alabama- 213
MOST DIFFICULT OOC SCHEDULES:
1. Florida- 92
2. Auburn- 83
3. Georgia- 62
4. LSU- 30
5. Alabama- 30
6. Texas A&M- 25
The biggest issue is Alabama playing Tennessee every year out of the East.
LSU and Florida are paired up to play every season.
Georgia and Auburn are paired up to play every season.
While Texas A&M doesn't get another "Big 5" team to play out of the East every year, they've managed to play a pretty tough Cross-Division Schedule:
2012: #9 Florida
2013: #5 Missouri
2014: #14 Missouri
2016: #22 Tennessee
2017: #12 Kentucky
Bama somehow has failed to play a single team out of the East during the regular season that finished in the Top 20 at the end of the year. THAT is the biggest issue with the schedules today.
Here is how the Big 5 + Texas A&M compare going back to the 2012 Expansion:
1. Auburn- 492
2. Texas A&M- 425
3. Florida- 407
4. LSU- 388
5. Georgia- 319
6. Alabama- 243
The gap between the hardest (Auburn) and the easiest (Alabama) is insane.... literally more than double.
And before Bama fans reply back that its because they can't play themselves, you are wrong. I'm sure that has something to do with it, but its also in large part playing a ridiculously soft Cross-Division schedule along with a ridiculously easy OOC schedule.
Here are the categories broken down:
MOST DIFFICULT DIVISION SCHEDULES:
1. Texas A&M- 330
2. Auburn- 325
3. LSU- 272
4. Alabama- 205
5. Florida- 181
6. Georgia- 149
MOST DIFFICULT CROSS DIVISIONAL SCHEDULES:
1. Florida- 134
2. Georgia- 108
3. LSU- 86
4. Auburn- 84
5. Texas A&M- 70
6. Alabama- 8
MOST DIFFICULT SEC SCHEDULES:
1. Auburn- 409
2. Texas A&M- 375
3. LSU- 358
4. Florida- 315
5. Georgia- 257
6. Alabama- 213
MOST DIFFICULT OOC SCHEDULES:
1. Florida- 92
2. Auburn- 83
3. Georgia- 62
4. LSU- 30
5. Alabama- 30
6. Texas A&M- 25
The biggest issue is Alabama playing Tennessee every year out of the East.
LSU and Florida are paired up to play every season.
Georgia and Auburn are paired up to play every season.
While Texas A&M doesn't get another "Big 5" team to play out of the East every year, they've managed to play a pretty tough Cross-Division Schedule:
2012: #9 Florida
2013: #5 Missouri
2014: #14 Missouri
2016: #22 Tennessee
2017: #12 Kentucky
Bama somehow has failed to play a single team out of the East during the regular season that finished in the Top 20 at the end of the year. THAT is the biggest issue with the schedules today.
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Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:28 pm to BHMKyle
Wait I thought Florida didn’t play anyone out of conference. This has to be a lie.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:30 pm to BHMKyle
That is absolutely impossible given SC having to deal with UF and UT and UGA during the first 15 years plus always drawing the toughest team from the West in those years, plus Clemson plus good OoC schedules during those years .... and these days we have consistently had very difficult schedules given our cross-divisional opponents and our OoC schedules.
I will match any year, since 1992 expansion, with any other program.
And if you want to do just since 2012, we can do that too.
Bring it, any season since whenever. Easy seasons have been few and far between for the Gamecocks.
I will match any year, since 1992 expansion, with any other program.
And if you want to do just since 2012, we can do that too.
Bring it, any season since whenever. Easy seasons have been few and far between for the Gamecocks.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:31 pm to GatorBait24
quote:
Wait I thought Florida didn’t play anyone out of conference. This has to be a lie.
2012 #10 Florida State
2013 #1 Florida State
2014 #5 Florida State
2015 #14 Florida State
2016 #8 Florida State
2017: NO ONE
2018: NO ONE
Your OOC schedule strength has lived and died by how well Florida State does each season. For most of the past 40 years, that means you've played a very difficult OOC schedule.
We'll wait to see if FSU turns this ship around though. If Taggart further depletes that program from the mess Jimbo left, it might be time to differentiate a bit.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:32 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
MOST DIFFICULT CROSS DIVISIONAL SCHEDULES: 1. Florida- 134
STTDB
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:32 pm to BHMKyle
This is good shite.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:33 pm to scrooster
quote:
And if you want to do just since 2012, we can do that too.
I honestly didnt' look at South Carolina in this exercise. I'm sure its likely you're in the top half of the league.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:34 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
1. Auburn- 492
quote:
2. Auburn- 325
quote:
1. Auburn- 409
quote:
2. Auburn- 83
Poor Auburn, no wonder Gus has lost 25 games the last 5 yrs. An yet the AU fans always want him fired and the Admin came damn close to it last year.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:37 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
I honestly didnt' look at South Carolina in this exercise. I'm sure its likely you're in the top half of the league.
It matters because it helps to explain why SC is having to fight and claw its way up the ladder, not only in this league but overall when it comes to football.
We’re fine with it, steel sharpens steel and eventually it will pay off, but it’s been a helluvan uphill battle.
We’re finally to a place where we should start seeing a major step forward.
All of us old timer Gamecock fans have been frustrated at the hands often dealt us when it comes to scheduling.
ETA: I will add this. Auburn and Tennessee have legitimate claims to playing extremely tough schedules over the course of the past twenty-seven years. And it’s not always been strictly about opponents but also about how off-weeks have been scheduled among other things .... things controlled by BHam.
There is far more to all of this implied in your OP than just the so-called Big 5 stuff. But cudos to you for sparking the topic.
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:38 pm to RT1941
quote:
Poor Auburn, no wonder Gus has lost 25 games the last 5 yrs. An yet the AU fans always want him fired and the Admin came damn close to it last year.
I've been saying this for years.... Auburn's problem is not its coach, its the schedule. When you play in the West and yet you play Georgia every year out of the East... plus manage to play one of the toughest OOC schedules in the country during the past several seasons, its a recipe for struggles.
I said this last week.... Sure, Gus has had some questionable in-game decision making. But Auburn has recruited well and produced some good teams. It doesn't matter who the coach is, the result is going to keep being the same only you're going to pile up owed buyout money with each firing.
If Auburn wants to turn things around, its best bet to scream loud and demand to mix up the divisions, etc.
They also need to stop scheduling the likes of Clemson, Oregon, and Washington and just go ahead and schedule home-and homes with Kansas, Indiana, Wake Forest, etc.
That would go along way.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:42 pm to BHMKyle
One more way to look at it.... you can take out the "Alabama can't play itself factor" by subtracting out the games played between Alabama and Auburn and also all common opponents (other West teams). Since 2012, these are the unique games for each of the two programs:
Alabama:
#3 USC (2016)
#21 Wisconsin (2015)
#22 Tennessee (2016)
#22 Tennessee (2015)
#24 Michigan (2012)
Auburn:
#1 Clemson (2016)
#2 Georgia (2017)
#4 Clemson (2017)
#5 Georgia (2012)
#7 Georgia (2018)
#9 Georgia (2014)
#11 Clemson (2012)
#13 Washington (2018)
#18 Kansas State (2014)
#23 Vanderbilt (2012)
So not counting games against each other or against other SEC West programs, Auburn has played nine Top 20 opponents during the past 7 seasons to Alabama's 1.
... there is your problem, Auburn.
Alabama:
#3 USC (2016)
#21 Wisconsin (2015)
#22 Tennessee (2016)
#22 Tennessee (2015)
#24 Michigan (2012)
Auburn:
#1 Clemson (2016)
#2 Georgia (2017)
#4 Clemson (2017)
#5 Georgia (2012)
#7 Georgia (2018)
#9 Georgia (2014)
#11 Clemson (2012)
#13 Washington (2018)
#18 Kansas State (2014)
#23 Vanderbilt (2012)
So not counting games against each other or against other SEC West programs, Auburn has played nine Top 20 opponents during the past 7 seasons to Alabama's 1.
... there is your problem, Auburn.
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:43 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
And before Bama fans reply back that its because they can't play themselves, you are wrong. I'm sure that has something to do with it, but its also in large part playing a ridiculously soft Cross-Division schedule along with a ridiculously easy OOC schedule.
What if you removed Alabama from the other teams scores?
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:43 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
I've been saying this for years.... Auburn's problem is not its coach, its the schedule. When you play in the West and yet you play Georgia every year out of the East... plus manage to play one of the toughest OOC schedules in the country during the past several seasons, its a recipe for struggles.
I said this last week.... Sure, Gus has had some questionable in-game decision making. But Auburn has recruited well and produced some good teams. It doesn't matter who the coach is, the result is going to keep being the same only you're going to pile up owed buyout money with each firing.
If Auburn wants to turn things around, its best bet to scream loud and demand to mix up the divisions, etc.
They also need to stop scheduling the likes of Clemson, Oregon, and Washington and just go ahead and schedule home-and homes with Kansas, Indiana, Wake Forest, etc.
That would go along way.
I don't disagree in general, but they also lose games to mediocre teams.
Losses to UR teams
2014 - Texas A&M (8-5)
2015 - Mississippi St (9-4), Arkansas (8-5)
2016 - Georgia (8-5)
2017 - none
2018 - Mississippi St (8-5), Tennessee (5-7)
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:44 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
So not counting games against each other or against other SEC West programs, Auburn has played nine Top 20 opponents during the past 7 seasons to Alabama's 1.
... there is your problem, Auburn.
That's their problem between going 8-5 and 9-3, yes. That isn't their problem between being current Auburn and being current Alabama. Losing 1-2 games a year to teams that go 8-4 or 7-5 is.
Auburn is without a doubt in the worst situation in terms of chances of losing 0-1 games a year. They are the only SEC team that has TWO guaranteed Top 10 teams on their schedule basically every year at this point (UGA, Alabama). That's a big deal and a huge barrier to elite success.
However, I think most Auburn fans understand that. I don't think any Auburn fans are mad at Gus for his record vs Alabama. Most are irritated with Gus for games like MSU, Tennessee, UCF, etc sprinkled on top of those games.
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:46 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
they've managed to play a pretty tough Cross-Division Schedule:
quote:
2013: #5 Missouri
2014: #14 Missouri
bullshite. Missouri doesn’t belong in the SEC.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:46 pm to RT1941
quote:
Poor Auburn, no wonder Gus has lost 25 games the last 5 yrs
If Auburn won those games, every team would drop (or drop out) of the standings.
It is kind of a catch 22.
You win, but you just affected 5-15 points off of this type of ranking each time you get the W.
You lose, and you just helped raise your score in this type if ranking.
Basically, this just means that Auburn loses a ton.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I don't disagree in general, but they also lose games to mediocre teams
Sure. But I would also think that eventually playing that difficult of a schedule wears on a team and causes some of those losses to mediocre teams.
According to S&P+, Auburn's schedule has been ranked in the Top 2 in terms of SOS strength every season since 2012.... I mean when you play a Top 2 schedule every single year, surely that is going to have a wearing down effect on a program.
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:48 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Sure. But I would also think that eventually playing that difficult of a schedule wears on a team and causes some of those losses to mediocre teams.
According to S&P+, Auburn's schedule has been ranked in the Top 2 in terms of SOS strength every season since 2012.... I mean when you play a Top 2 schedule every single year, surely that is going to have a wearing down effect on a program.
Almost all of these losses are before they even play Alabama or Georgia. Pre-November their schedule is very similar to most other schools, or easier.
It is 100% true that going 12-0 or 11-1 with their schedule is MUCH more difficult than a lot of others (Alabama and Georgia, for instance). However, their issue is going 8-4 or 7-5 and losing games in October to Tennessee and Mississippi State (and in Baton Rouge every trip down there).
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:52 pm to scrooster
quote:
Bring it, any season since whenever.
Just spot checking your work:
2004
SEC-E ranked opponents: UGA (AP: 7) and UT (AP: 13)
SEC-W opponents: Alabama (6-6, unranked), Ole Miss, Arkansas (both finished w/ losing records and unranked)
OOC: Troy, USF, Clemson (finished 6-5, unranked)
Posted on 6/25/19 at 12:55 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Dont think the argument here should be Auburn is an easier schedule away from winning more nattys or being elite. I think the clear argument is Alabama's schedule is pretty light by mere comparison, end of story.
This post was edited on 6/25/19 at 12:56 pm
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