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Posted on 9/28/26 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 9/28/26 at 4:36 pm
These are albeit super obscure stats... but I think they show how close Auburn has been in literally all of our games this year and last.
Losses by more than 10 points since the beginning of last season:
0- Auburn, Georgia
1- Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Vandy
2- LSU, Oklahoma, Mizzou, Tennessee
3- Alabama
4- Florida
5- South Carolina
6- Kentucky
Auburn played 4 playoff teams last year and might very well have played one already this season, and yet we were in every single one of those games down to the final minute.
In fact, I noticed that Auburn has played six Top 15 teams since last year which makes the above stat even more impressive.
... that led me to dig up this obscure stat:
Average Margin vs Top 15 Opponents (2025-2026):
*using final rankings for 2025 and current rankings for 2026
+9.20: Georgia (3-2)
-0.17: Texas (4-2)
-2.50: Ole Miss (3-3)
-4.83: Alabama (3-3)
-6.00: Florida (1-4)
-7.00: Auburn (0-6)
-9.50: Vanderbilt (0-2)
-10.00: Tennessee (0-5)
-10.20: LSU (0-5)
-10.50: Missouri (0-4)
-11.25: Texas A&M (1-3)
-12.20: Oklahoma (1-4)
-16.33: South Carolina (0-6)
-17.00: Mississippi State (0-4)
-17.40: Kentucky (0-5)
-21.33: Arkansas (0-6)
It's frustrating to see Auburn play so many Top 15 teams so close but come away 0-6. Hopefully Golesh' ability to at least win some close games will translate into winning a big one soon.
Also frustrating that Auburn has performed way better against top level competition than two thirds of the league, yet somehow 9 of the 10 teams behind us in this stat have spent time ranked in the Top 25 during this time frame... many for multiple weeks... and yet many of them are winless in big games just like us.
It's maddening.
I hate to sound like Hugh, but we are indeed "close".... just need to finish better.
Losses by more than 10 points since the beginning of last season:
0- Auburn, Georgia
1- Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Vandy
2- LSU, Oklahoma, Mizzou, Tennessee
3- Alabama
4- Florida
5- South Carolina
6- Kentucky
Auburn played 4 playoff teams last year and might very well have played one already this season, and yet we were in every single one of those games down to the final minute.
In fact, I noticed that Auburn has played six Top 15 teams since last year which makes the above stat even more impressive.
... that led me to dig up this obscure stat:
Average Margin vs Top 15 Opponents (2025-2026):
*using final rankings for 2025 and current rankings for 2026
+9.20: Georgia (3-2)
-0.17: Texas (4-2)
-2.50: Ole Miss (3-3)
-4.83: Alabama (3-3)
-6.00: Florida (1-4)
-7.00: Auburn (0-6)
-9.50: Vanderbilt (0-2)
-10.00: Tennessee (0-5)
-10.20: LSU (0-5)
-10.50: Missouri (0-4)
-11.25: Texas A&M (1-3)
-12.20: Oklahoma (1-4)
-16.33: South Carolina (0-6)
-17.00: Mississippi State (0-4)
-17.40: Kentucky (0-5)
-21.33: Arkansas (0-6)
It's frustrating to see Auburn play so many Top 15 teams so close but come away 0-6. Hopefully Golesh' ability to at least win some close games will translate into winning a big one soon.
Also frustrating that Auburn has performed way better against top level competition than two thirds of the league, yet somehow 9 of the 10 teams behind us in this stat have spent time ranked in the Top 25 during this time frame... many for multiple weeks... and yet many of them are winless in big games just like us.
It's maddening.
I hate to sound like Hugh, but we are indeed "close".... just need to finish better.
Posted on 9/28/26 at 5:24 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
just need to finish better.
Thanks for the wonderful stats! Interesting to read.
I can’t remember when Auburn played a complete game. We are used to slow starts, letting our D extend plays, etc.
Posted on 9/28/26 at 5:33 pm to AUTiger789
quote:And to think Florida let their foot up and gifted us this stat.... not that I'm thinking:
Losses by more than 10 points since the beginning of last season:
0- Auburn, Georgia
quote:Because Baylor would of been -10 without the miracle. And that would been twice just this season. But that's of course that's what if's.
1- Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Vandy
And I'm thinking we don't fire Hugh last year if we were 'that-close' in every game.
Posted on 9/28/26 at 8:21 pm to AUTiger789
Saw a stat today that said out of the 6 SEC schools who have new head coaches this season (they counted Golding as new for Ole Miss), 4 of those schools have already been ranked in the AP Top 25 poll. They are LSU, Ole Miss, Florida and Kentucky. The 2 who haven't been ranked are us and Arkansas.
Posted on 9/28/26 at 9:18 pm to Pat Dye 60 minutes
We're so close. 
Posted on 9/28/26 at 9:24 pm to AUTiger789
Stats that matter. TOP.
We let Florida have the ball 17 minutes more than us. That is more than a whole quarter of football.
We let Vandy have the ball 15 minutes more than us. That is a whole quarter of football. We had to have a blocked punt returned the other way to win against Vandy. Vandy!
We'll linger at the damn bottom of the conference with this. We have YouTube genius out there that think that is the way it is and there is nothing we can do about it.
If that is the case, we need to just go ahead and fire everyone. Surely Golesh is not happy with that. That is a damn recipe for being a loser.
The problem we have is we have too damn many sunglasses half full sunshine pumpers out there. If it sucks, then damn call it out. Quit making excuses and going out there trying to dig any kind of stat you can find to polish the turd that was a struggle win against damn Vandy. Struggling to win against Vandy, is that where you want your program to be?
I am looking forward to improvement and I hope Coach Golesh sees this crap like I do. You just can't give another team a quarter or more with the football and expect to be successful.
We have some damn idiot Auburn supporters that have no freaking idea what good football looks like.
Rant over, where's the Tylenol.
We let Florida have the ball 17 minutes more than us. That is more than a whole quarter of football.
We let Vandy have the ball 15 minutes more than us. That is a whole quarter of football. We had to have a blocked punt returned the other way to win against Vandy. Vandy!
We'll linger at the damn bottom of the conference with this. We have YouTube genius out there that think that is the way it is and there is nothing we can do about it.
If that is the case, we need to just go ahead and fire everyone. Surely Golesh is not happy with that. That is a damn recipe for being a loser.
The problem we have is we have too damn many sunglasses half full sunshine pumpers out there. If it sucks, then damn call it out. Quit making excuses and going out there trying to dig any kind of stat you can find to polish the turd that was a struggle win against damn Vandy. Struggling to win against Vandy, is that where you want your program to be?
I am looking forward to improvement and I hope Coach Golesh sees this crap like I do. You just can't give another team a quarter or more with the football and expect to be successful.
We have some damn idiot Auburn supporters that have no freaking idea what good football looks like.
Rant over, where's the Tylenol.
This post was edited on 9/28/26 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 9/28/26 at 9:52 pm to wareaglepete
quote:no
Struggling to win against Vandy, is that where you want your program to be?
but it beats the frick out of struggling to lose to Vandy, which is where our program has been the last two years
Posted on 9/28/26 at 9:53 pm to FearlessFreep
If you make excuses for crap, crap is what you will get.
Posted on 9/28/26 at 10:29 pm to wareaglepete
quote:
We let Vandy have the ball 15 minutes more than us. That is a whole quarter of football
Because we run too much tempo. I think tempo should be situational in today's football. Tempo all the time every down worked back in 2013 when no one in the SEC was used to it. It doesn't work as well now.
Posted on 9/28/26 at 10:52 pm to AUTiger789
The stat that bothers me the most is that we are the best team at losing the most games by 7 points or less since 2021. #Cant seem to finish. #So close, but yet so far. If we can't shake this curse, we will be 5W-7L yet again.
Posted on 9/29/26 at 7:02 am to wareaglepete
quote:or you can understand that nothing you can say or do makes any difference in the direction of the program
If you make excuses for crap, crap is what you will get.
beating Vandy > losing to Vandy
crap > worse than crap
Posted on 9/29/26 at 7:03 am to AUstar
quote:
Because we run too much tempo.
I keep hearing this. However, we were 128th in football last year when we allowed 1st downs on 3rd & 10+, so far this year opponents are 11/14 on 4th downs. Please explain how this is the offense's fault?
So if the Defense makes the opponents Offense go 3 and our or 6 and out how is the offense the problem. I can understand that people think that if a fast offense keeps going 3 and out that it puts stress on the D but if the D got itself off the field then what is the issue?
I have seen nasty Ds in my life and I never equated them to their paired offense. Auburn used to have a lot of them.
I believe it is a coaching issue. Most offensive coaches don't care much for Defense and vice versa. Go back and look at different coaches in their early years and see. A lot of successful Coaches learn both are important and you need to be real good in all phases to be consistent.
Posted on 9/29/26 at 7:11 am to 88TIger
quote:
I keep hearing this. However, we were 128th in football last year when we allowed 1st downs on 3rd & 10+, so far this year opponents are 11/14 on 4th downs. Please explain how this is the offense's fault?
There's a similar defensive philosophy that accompanies it. Since Gus came in, our defensive philosophy has - more often than not - been bend don't break and create turnover opportunities to give the ball back to the offense. It's a mentality that's a lot like our offensive mentality. We don't need to have superior force, we'll scheme around the problem. So we don't get consistent pressure, we don't physically challenge the pass, we react instead of dictate. And when you throw in a DC who likes to shift and try and trick the offense, it also creates windows for being out of position, penalties, blown coverage, missed tackles... all the things we see on high pressure possessions.
We need to challenge for talent on the lines, at QB, at WR instead of trying to "scheme 'em up" with G6 leftovers. And we need to challenge the line of scrimage rather than relying on schemes. It's hard to see us being more than middling until we can do that.
Posted on 9/29/26 at 7:23 am to AUCom96
I agree completely.
What is disappointing is you can be more aggressive and still not play recklessly.
If we truly need to win shootouts 42-28 as per the new flow of the game the criteria has to be high sacks and high forced turnovers. There is a 14 point swing in there to be taken if we operate as we can.
But instead we dont try to rush the passer very much.
And that is a farce.
You can scan the PFFs of every relevant QB in our league and notice yourself that their numbers are highest when not under fire.
It's common sense.
What is disappointing is you can be more aggressive and still not play recklessly.
If we truly need to win shootouts 42-28 as per the new flow of the game the criteria has to be high sacks and high forced turnovers. There is a 14 point swing in there to be taken if we operate as we can.
But instead we dont try to rush the passer very much.
And that is a farce.
You can scan the PFFs of every relevant QB in our league and notice yourself that their numbers are highest when not under fire.
It's common sense.
This post was edited on 9/29/26 at 7:24 am
Posted on 9/29/26 at 7:36 am to jangalang
Am I wrong or does it seem like Durkin has been way less aggressive this year as opposed the prior years? Seems like he had guys flying all over the place the last two years and I just don't see that very much anymore.
And this goes back to the TOP. Is he maybe being less aggressive and trying to run more coverage thinking he can get more stops by taking less risks? But, if that is the case, it's a Streisand Effect thing happening. It is bringing the bad TOP numbers into existence. We did not have this kind of deficit in TOP when Gus was running his hurry up back in 2013. We would be on the wrong side but it was much closer. I looked yesterday and against uga and bama in 2013, we were 5 min behind in TOP in one game and actually had just a bit more TOP in the other.
What is causing this crazy deficit is an awful combination of bend don't break defense giving the other team long drives combined with an offense that has way too many 3 n outs and interceptions. Recipe for disaster. You can get away with it against Vandy. Georgia and others will make us pay dearly.
And this goes back to the TOP. Is he maybe being less aggressive and trying to run more coverage thinking he can get more stops by taking less risks? But, if that is the case, it's a Streisand Effect thing happening. It is bringing the bad TOP numbers into existence. We did not have this kind of deficit in TOP when Gus was running his hurry up back in 2013. We would be on the wrong side but it was much closer. I looked yesterday and against uga and bama in 2013, we were 5 min behind in TOP in one game and actually had just a bit more TOP in the other.
What is causing this crazy deficit is an awful combination of bend don't break defense giving the other team long drives combined with an offense that has way too many 3 n outs and interceptions. Recipe for disaster. You can get away with it against Vandy. Georgia and others will make us pay dearly.
This post was edited on 9/29/26 at 7:41 am
Posted on 9/29/26 at 10:41 am to wareaglepete
TOP often is directly related to running the football effectively.
A short run with 2 incompletions is not much time.
A short run with 2 incompletions is not much time.
Posted on 9/29/26 at 4:16 pm to AUTiger789
“Oh yeah?! Well Playoff teams like to beat my team more than yours so take that!”
Posted on 9/29/26 at 8:00 pm to wareaglepete
Wareaglepete,
I agree, in the days of the Ole Ball Coach at Florida he didnt give two shats about time of TOP cause he was scoring.
You have an inept offense then the defense will remain on the field and wear down.
If our offense was half way decent the numbers on the defense would improve.
I agree, in the days of the Ole Ball Coach at Florida he didnt give two shats about time of TOP cause he was scoring.
You have an inept offense then the defense will remain on the field and wear down.
If our offense was half way decent the numbers on the defense would improve.
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