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re: Percentage chance that a 9-3 Texas gets in?

Posted on 11/23/25 at 11:34 am to
Posted by zdfger
Member since Dec 2020
663 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 11:34 am to
quote:

Is the Florida loss an albatross?


Yes IMO. Plus they barely beat Kentucky and Miss St. There’s enough 2 loss teams. Don’t need a 3 loss team in there this year
Posted by hookem33
Belton, Tx
Member since Jun 2022
2849 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 11:53 am to
we don't deserve to get in regardless of this game
Posted by RTRnFlorida
Member since Mar 2024
2744 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 12:13 pm to
I think it’s possible, especially if they thump the Aggies pretty good and then the Aggies get beat by Bama.

Texas would have a better resume.

Losing only to OSU and Georgia, and Also beating the Aggies and Oklahoma.

Plus the longhorns have a bigger name by far, with bigger named players.
This post was edited on 11/23/25 at 12:16 pm
Posted by RedDirt
Tampa
Member since Jan 2017
1061 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

Florida is just a bad loss.


It’s not even just the Florida loss. They needed double overtime to beat Kentucky and MSU.

There’s not a lot of situations where the committee overlooks all that.
Posted by Boomer65
Norman
Member since Sep 2022
1237 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 12:22 pm to
The talking heads will continue slobbering over Whorns’ pecker that they should get in but the reality is they won’t even if they beat Aggies. Losing to Florida mid-season is a major stain on their resume.
Posted by Che Boludo
Member since May 2009
21868 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

Percentage chance that a 9-3 Texas gets in?

CFP probability through Week 14
Currently, they have a 2% chance. 0% if they lose another. 6% chance if they win out.
Posted by Texaninalabama
Member since Aug 2024
59 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 12:47 pm to
I look at it this way, if a Texas university can pay a coach $77,000,000 not to coach, it’s possible an undeserving Texas university football team could make the playoffs.
Posted by SECCaptain
Member since Jun 2025
1694 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 1:57 pm to
If Texas wins, your season is over. There will still be games left to play, but that will indicate there’s a 0% chance Aggie can win the title
Posted by VoxDawg
Glory, Glory
Member since Sep 2012
75586 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

Being whipped by UGA was what did them in.
Posted by IamNotaRobot
OKC
Member since Nov 2021
1648 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 1:59 pm to
They would absolutely take a 9-3 Texas team
Posted by Gman84
Member since Aug 2021
1142 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

The same Florida team you barely beat by 4?


You meant to say we beat the team
You lost to by 11. Famously took a knee at the 1 on an uncontested would-be TD run.
Posted by HTX Horn
Houston
Member since Jul 2021
1300 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 3:16 pm to
quote:

Zero. They could beat yall 70-0. There’s going to be an extreme log jam of 10-2 teams. Shouldn’t have lost to Florida

Yeah the Florida game hurts the worst. Maybe if Georgia game had gone to the wire rather than collapsing in 4th. But really hard to see a path to CFP for Horns.
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
25915 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 3:18 pm to
You cannot take a 9-3 Texas team over a litany of 10-2 teams. This board has an SEC bias and the committee does not. I would argue the committee will do everything they can to even it out.

Also, if Texas beats A&M, A&M doesn’t even see Alabama in the championship game.
Posted by ukraine_rebel
North Mississippi
Member since Oct 2012
3757 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 3:59 pm to
SIP> sips
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
25915 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 4:01 pm to
That is why I call them horns. Ole Miss was here first. As was Tennessee so Texas is UTX or UTA
Posted by cmayes56
Alabama
Member since Oct 2015
3258 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 4:04 pm to
Texas isn’t getting in.. they can beat The Aggies 97-0.. you ain’t getting in
Posted by Ostrander
Member since Sep 2025
46 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 7:03 pm to
This is a moot point because uterus ain't winning this Friday
Posted by IamNotaRobot
OKC
Member since Nov 2021
1648 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 7:17 pm to
Probably right but they will certainly at least entertain the idea.
Posted by how333
Member since Dec 2020
4083 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 7:31 pm to
Zero
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
62646 posts
Posted on 11/23/25 at 7:31 pm to
It’s at 4% right now


If they win next week it will be 9% chance

They are out
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