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re: Oklahoma team win total
Posted on 8/4/26 at 2:47 pm to The_Giving_Tree
Posted on 8/4/26 at 2:47 pm to The_Giving_Tree
quote:
OU fans and insiders frequently overrate their talent. We have heard this kind of preseason stuff before only for them to go 6-7. Average skill position players across the board (they are calling Parker Livingston a “stud” which should tell you a lot). Their QB is massively over-hyped. Their defense is very solid but elite? No. 8-9 win team.
8-9 wins would cover the win total, FWIW. 9-3 would be a good year for us with an outside shot at the playoff.
And our win total last year was 6.5 and we won 10 games, so I'm not sure where you're getting this idea that OU fans overrate our team every year. Seems like the opposite in fact.
Oh yeah, and if our defense isn't elite, then no defense is elite.
This post was edited on 8/4/26 at 2:49 pm
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Posted on 8/4/26 at 2:55 pm to dallastiger55
quote:
Almost every prediction is 10-2/11-1 and even the fans are predicting 10-12 wins on every “predict your team record” I’ve seen.
The thing that’s interesting is their Vegas win total is 7.5. I can’t ever remember a team get so much national championship love that is a 7.5 win total.
Mateer is going into year 5 of college and year 3 of starting in the same system. He wont improve by any substantial margin. That's why Vegas has OU at 7.5 wins.
Posted on 8/4/26 at 6:01 pm to TexasOnTop
So healthy Mateer is not better than broken throwing hand Mateer……
Can you say Delusional…….
Can you say Delusional…….
Posted on 8/4/26 at 6:08 pm to SECCaptain
Not how betting lines work, chief.
Posted on 8/4/26 at 6:10 pm to TexasOnTop
Let’s all learn how betting lines work, guys. It’s not hard.
Posted on 8/4/26 at 6:13 pm to John somers
Think you’re lost. The Florida board is elsewhere.
Posted on 8/4/26 at 7:33 pm to OKinTX21
That's exactly how betting lines work, chief.
LINK
That site actually shows line changes and tickets/money for all the major apps. The whole getting equal money on each side and collecting vig isn't always the goal, when the opportunity presents it's far more lucrative set a line in a way to stack money on one side and have that side lose
Under 7.5 is +122, Over 7.5 is -150. To neutralize risk, the books would need 42.88% of the money bet on the under.
Given the vast majority of money wagered on CFB futures are by fans of those teams, at +122 and -150 for 7.5, there's a 0% chance even 1/4 of the money gets bet on the under.
So ask yourself this, since the majority Oklahoma fans believe their team will win at minimum 9 games this season, why would the books set it at 7.5? Even most neutral fans will look at that line and think the over is easy money. Surely the books know the risk that line will put them at?
O/U 7.5 at those odds tells you the books are taking a position and that position is under 7.5 for Oklahoma
LINK
That site actually shows line changes and tickets/money for all the major apps. The whole getting equal money on each side and collecting vig isn't always the goal, when the opportunity presents it's far more lucrative set a line in a way to stack money on one side and have that side lose
Under 7.5 is +122, Over 7.5 is -150. To neutralize risk, the books would need 42.88% of the money bet on the under.
Given the vast majority of money wagered on CFB futures are by fans of those teams, at +122 and -150 for 7.5, there's a 0% chance even 1/4 of the money gets bet on the under.
So ask yourself this, since the majority Oklahoma fans believe their team will win at minimum 9 games this season, why would the books set it at 7.5? Even most neutral fans will look at that line and think the over is easy money. Surely the books know the risk that line will put them at?
O/U 7.5 at those odds tells you the books are taking a position and that position is under 7.5 for Oklahoma
This post was edited on 8/4/26 at 7:43 pm
Posted on 8/4/26 at 8:27 pm to SECCaptain
You said “Vegas doesn’t like to lose money.” Vegas isn’t the counterparty, they’re the market maker. They make their fee on over/unders whether OU goes 5-7 or 12-0.
So, no, you’re wrong. Vegas doesn’t care about OU’s win/loss, they just understand how to set the price to get action going. That’s literally it lol.
So, no, you’re wrong. Vegas doesn’t care about OU’s win/loss, they just understand how to set the price to get action going. That’s literally it lol.
Posted on 8/4/26 at 8:30 pm to OKinTX21
And they know how to set the price because they know there are still an ample population (morons) that still think a team returning a majority of the starters of a top 10 defense and the most % of returning production on offense from a 10-3 season playoff season can’t muster at least 8 wins.
A fool and his money…
A fool and his money…
Posted on 8/4/26 at 9:02 pm to OKinTX21
Let's say $20,000,000 total is wagered on Oklahoma futures and, conservatively, 70% of money is on the over(likely closer to 80% in reality)
Bet over: $14 million
Book risk: $9.33 million
Bet under: $6 million
Book risk: $7.32 million
If over hits, books are -$3.33 million. If under hits, books are +$6.68 million. 7.5 at those odds was set specifically with the intention of stacking public money on the over, which is what's going to happen. Something like 8.5 at O -110, U +130 would have gotten ~equal money on both sides. But instead books chose to bait people into betting the over, and there's only one reason that would happen
Bet over: $14 million
Book risk: $9.33 million
Bet under: $6 million
Book risk: $7.32 million
If over hits, books are -$3.33 million. If under hits, books are +$6.68 million. 7.5 at those odds was set specifically with the intention of stacking public money on the over, which is what's going to happen. Something like 8.5 at O -110, U +130 would have gotten ~equal money on both sides. But instead books chose to bait people into betting the over, and there's only one reason that would happen
Posted on 8/4/26 at 10:39 pm to SECCaptain
So this is similar to the time OU played Bama in the Sugar Bowl and Bama was favored by 19 points according to the Vegas odds makers…..
We curb stomped Bama that night….
We curb stomped Bama that night….
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