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Posted on 12/16/24 at 8:31 am to JayAg
The regular season champ will have no less than 4 maybe 5 losses. It will be tough sledding. Winning All your home games has to happen if you want to win this league. Hope you can steal a few on the road.
SEC tournament will be a coin flip again with a chance for someone to either get in the dance or improve their seed.
SEC basketball has kicked the ACC to the curb.
SEC tournament will be a coin flip again with a chance for someone to either get in the dance or improve their seed.
SEC basketball has kicked the ACC to the curb.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 8:34 am to WildcatMike
I would love an explanation for Houston's ranking. It makes zero sense
Posted on 12/16/24 at 8:35 am to WildcatMike
Sometimes these rankings throw one program into the mix that just makes you scratch your head.
Houston at #8 is one such program.
They are 0-2 vs Q1 and 1-1 vs Q2, but ranked 8th; there are 54 teams with at least 1 Q1 win. Their remaining 5 wins are Q3 and Q4 (3 and 2, respectively).
Marquette, who is right below them, is 2-2 vs Q1, 2-0 vs Q2, with 0 lower Quadrant losses. They have a better overall record, more Q1 wins, more Q2 wins and fewer Q2 losses, and no bad loss (Q3/Q4) dragging them down.
Houston at #8 is one such program.
They are 0-2 vs Q1 and 1-1 vs Q2, but ranked 8th; there are 54 teams with at least 1 Q1 win. Their remaining 5 wins are Q3 and Q4 (3 and 2, respectively).
Marquette, who is right below them, is 2-2 vs Q1, 2-0 vs Q2, with 0 lower Quadrant losses. They have a better overall record, more Q1 wins, more Q2 wins and fewer Q2 losses, and no bad loss (Q3/Q4) dragging them down.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 8:37 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Bama and Tennessee play 6 games against the group (3 at home, 3 away).
quote:
Auburn only has to play 4 games against these other elite league opponents… 3 at home and only 1 on the road.
I think Auburn's OOC is a bit tougher, though not by a ton, than Alabama's.
It'll be interesting to see who ends up with the toughest schedule by year's end.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 8:54 am to WildcatMike
Is the Florida coach going to keep on coaching through the NCAA tournament, despite sending penis picks to coeds he was stalking?
Posted on 12/16/24 at 8:57 am to skrayper
quote:
Sometimes these rankings throw one program into the mix that just makes you scratch your head. Houston at #8 is one such program. They are 0-2 vs Q1 and 1-1 vs Q2, but ranked 8th; there are 54 teams with at least 1 Q1 win. Their remaining 5 wins are Q3 and Q4 (3 and 2, respectively). Marquette, who is right below them, is 2-2 vs Q1, 2-0 vs Q2, with 0 lower Quadrant losses. They have a better overall record, more Q1 wins, more Q2 wins and fewer Q2 losses, and no bad loss (Q3/Q4) dragging them down.
The answer is that NET still weighs efficiency more heavily than résumé. There’s some results based stuff in there but ultimately it cares more about how you’re playing than who you’re beating.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:06 am to Bigbens42
quote:
The answer is that NET still weighs efficiency more heavily than résumé. There’s some results based stuff in there but ultimately it cares more about how you’re playing than who you’re beating.
I get that; KenPom is clearly the same (they have Houston at #4). I think they must be getting a lot of credit for close losses against top 10 teams (5 points to Auburn and Alabama) and blowing out their Q3&Q4 opponents.
Comparing it to Alabama's, I can sort of see some of that logic - our two Q1 losses are worse than Houston's two (well, mainly due to the Purdue loss), and we didn't blow out our Q3 opponents like they did.
It's almost as if Houston's biggest "plus" is they blow out Q3 teams more efficiently.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:07 am to WildcatMike
quote:
Don’t lose to SMU
Probably head banging because our season is effectively probably cooked. We've now lost 2 starters for the season in Ward and Reed's injury now. This team wont survive this year's SEC at all.
This post was edited on 12/16/24 at 9:12 am
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:17 am to skrayper
quote:
I think Auburn's OOC is a bit tougher, though not by a ton, than Alabama's.
Both are strong, but Auburn’s is a good bit tougher.
Both played / will play Purdue, Houston, UNC, and Kent St.
Additionally, Auburn played #3 Duke, #6 Iowa State, #30 Memphis, and #35 Ohio State.
Additionally, Bama played #14 Illinois, #17 Oregon, #69 Creighton, #83 Rutgers.
Auburn’s slate is a good bit more difficult, IMO. Creighton will be on the bubble come March, and Rutgers will likely be in the NIT.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:18 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Florida plays just five games against these other opponents, but only one is at home and the other 4 are on the road.
SEC fricks Florida in Football and basketball scheduling this year it seems.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:18 am to skrayper
quote:NET does factor in wins and losses; who you beat and where, but it is a smaller than it should be component. KenPom, Torvik, and the like are just metrics that look at efficiency numbers and use an algorithm that is designed to be predictive and not a ranking o based on results per se
I get that; KenPom is clearly the same
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:20 am to WildcatMike
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:23 am to WDE24
quote:
Torvik
Thanks - that's the one I was forgetting.
They love Houston even more, with them at #2.
I'm guessing another positive in Houston's column is that two of their losses went into OT (Alabama and San Diego St), leaving them with was essentially only one loss in regulation - and that just by 5 to #1 Auburn.
So that's fair.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:28 am to koreandawg
quote:
Is the Florida coach going to keep on coaching through the NCAA tournament, despite sending penis picks to coeds he was stalking?
No only through the Georgia games.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:32 am to skrayper
quote:
get that; KenPom is clearly the same (they have Houston at #4). I think they must be getting a lot of credit for close losses against top 10 teams (5 points to Auburn and Alabama) and blowing out their Q3&Q4 opponents. Comparing it to Alabama's, I can sort of see some of that logic - our two Q1 losses are worse than Houston's two (well, mainly due to the Purdue loss), and we didn't blow out our Q3 opponents like they did. It's almost as if Houston's biggest "plus" is they blow out Q3 teams more efficiently.
It’s just that they’re not results oriented.
Think of it like this; Auburn plays Houston. Pomeroy says Houston has a 60% chance to win. Just because the 40% chance that Auburn wins came to pass does not affect how KenPom views the matchup going forward, assuming the efficiency metrics remain the same. The future matchup would still be 60-40 in favor of Houston.
The contrast with these would be purely results based rankings like RPI which has its own flaws. Memphis is ranked 1st there right now lol.
NET is an attempt to bridge the gap between the advanced analytics and résumé. It’s imperfect.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:37 am to Bigbens42
Better yet, apply flipping a coin to KenPom or another advanced metric
If I’m flipping a coin 10 times and it comes up tails 8 times, does KenPom still having the odds evenly matched going foward mean it’s wrong just because tails won 80 percent of the previous flips?
If I’m flipping a coin 10 times and it comes up tails 8 times, does KenPom still having the odds evenly matched going foward mean it’s wrong just because tails won 80 percent of the previous flips?
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:39 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Auburn lucked up big time in the scheduling draw, as we have the fewest games against the rest of the group. Amongst these Top 5 SEC teams:
Conference wise perhaps but y’all’s OOC win record clearly shows Auburn is the best team in college basketball this season. At least at this time.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 9:42 am to ruffleforeskin
UF's schedule has undoubtedly been weak compared to the other top teams, but you're allowed to use your eyes and do a little scouting
Defense and rebounding were the big weaknesses last year, and the additions of Martin, Chinyelu, and Alexis turned those into strengths. This team is very very good
Defense and rebounding were the big weaknesses last year, and the additions of Martin, Chinyelu, and Alexis turned those into strengths. This team is very very good
This post was edited on 12/16/24 at 11:02 am
Posted on 12/16/24 at 10:04 am to GatorsGators
It's crazy that we have 5 teams that could all be legitimate #1 seeds by tournament time. They probably won't be (with the conference eating itself), but any of these:
Auburn
Tennessee
Alabama
Florida
Kentucky
Could be a #1 seed and/or make the Final Four.
Auburn
Tennessee
Alabama
Florida
Kentucky
Could be a #1 seed and/or make the Final Four.
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