How many programs are capable of winning an SEC title in the new SEC?

Here are my thoughts:

Incapable: Vanderbilt, Kentucky

Let’s face it, these programs have zero shot to win the SEC. Vandy hasn’t ever won one in the league’s 90-year existence. Kentucky has one title that was won retroactively due to a team having to forfeit a game back when the SEC only had 10 teams and you could tie for the title… as they did in 1976 with Georgia.

Highly Unlikely To Ever Have a Chance: Miss St, Missouri, Arkansas, Ole Miss, South Carolina

Miss St hasn’t won one since 1941 and has really never come close. 1998 was probably the closest.

Missouri had their best shot those first two seasons they were in the SEC. The East was extremely weak and they at least could take advantage of that. With the divisions going away, their future chances are close to zero.

Arkansas- They took advantage of a vey week Western division in 1995, 2002, and 2006 but were whipped in Atlanta by double digits all three times, by an average loss by 23 points. If Arkansas can’t win one in 30 years with just 12 teams and divisions, they aren’t likely to win one going forward.

Ole Miss- no coach since Johnny Vaught has ever come close. Not likely going to ever happen.

South Carolina- if there is one program in this group that might have the best shot, it’s South Carolina. Why? Demographics. They are in a state that is exploding in population and also border fast-growing Georgia and South Carolina. As the ACC falls behind in revenue, South Carolina is likely to benefit more than any single program in the coming years. It is still a steep, uphill climb.

Likely at some Point but Hard to Come By: Texas A&M, Tennessee, Florida, Texas

A&M has the resources. They’ve got the facilities. It will come one day but I think it’s a once in 30 years type of thing.

Tennessee and Florida- I lump these together because they have similar outlooks. Neither team has won the SEC since Saban won his first SEC title. They’ve had the hardest time adjusting in the new era of college football that Saban brought to the league. I think they are certainly capable, but we’re not in the 1990s anymore and a once every 15-20 years is probably the best these can hope for.

Texas- They’ve struggled to win titles in the Big12. Jury is out on if they can do it in the SEC.

Most Likely to Win: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Oklahoma

Bama, Georgia, LSU, and Auburn are responsible for the past 14 SEC Titles, and all have won multiple since any other program has won one. These programs are built for the new era.

Oklahoma has dominated the Big 12. They are a blue blood. I think there could be an adjustment period, but I expect them to win the SEC before some of these others get their first.