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ESPN's FPI predicts outcome of every game on Alabama's schedule
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:39 am
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:39 am
A little bit of a surprise on a few of these, imo.
Below is Alabama’s full schedule and projected win probability, per the FPI:
August 31: vs. Duke (Atlanta): 96.3 percent win probability
September 7: New Mexico State: 99.7 percent
September 14: at South Carolina: 82.5 percent
September 21: Southern Miss: 98.3 percent
September 28: Ole Miss: 95.1 percent
October 12: at Texas A&M: 74.3 percent
October 19: Tennessee: 88.4 percent
October 26: Arkansas: 97.5 percent
November 9: LSU: 74.8 percent
November 16: at Mississippi State: 77.9 percent
November 23: Western Carolina: 99.9 percent
November 30: at Auburn: 73.6 percent
Below is Alabama’s full schedule and projected win probability, per the FPI:
August 31: vs. Duke (Atlanta): 96.3 percent win probability
September 7: New Mexico State: 99.7 percent
September 14: at South Carolina: 82.5 percent
September 21: Southern Miss: 98.3 percent
September 28: Ole Miss: 95.1 percent
October 12: at Texas A&M: 74.3 percent
October 19: Tennessee: 88.4 percent
October 26: Arkansas: 97.5 percent
November 9: LSU: 74.8 percent
November 16: at Mississippi State: 77.9 percent
November 23: Western Carolina: 99.9 percent
November 30: at Auburn: 73.6 percent
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Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:41 am to RatRodDawg
quote:
November 23: Western Carolina: 99.9 percent
Why not add that 0.1%?
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:46 am to RatRodDawg
What’s surprising about it? Seems about right to me.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:47 am to RatRodDawg
quote:
LSU: 74.8 percent
quote:
Texas A&M: 74.3 percent
quote:
Auburn: 73.6 percent
Big 3
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:49 am to HailToTheChiz
Bingo.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:52 am to HailToTheChiz
All three are very good teams with talent to match. That’s not surprising at all.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:53 am to RatRodDawg
Still think TAMU is going to be Bama's toughest game
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:55 am to RatRodDawg
That gives Bama a 20.3% chance of going 12-0 which is obviously too low considering they just did it last year and didn't have a game close by halftime outside of the mighty Citadel.
That being said that % is way too low if Tua plays all 12 games and way too high if he misses multiple games. So if you factor that in, I guess 20.3% is somewhat accurate. Although it's probably more like 38% if Tua plays every game (which is probably 75% likely) and 2% if he doesn't. Which puts it closer to 30% they go undefeated.
That being said that % is way too low if Tua plays all 12 games and way too high if he misses multiple games. So if you factor that in, I guess 20.3% is somewhat accurate. Although it's probably more like 38% if Tua plays every game (which is probably 75% likely) and 2% if he doesn't. Which puts it closer to 30% they go undefeated.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 9:16 am to RatRodDawg
Also from FPI...
Chances of Winning the SEC:
47.0%- Alabama
24.8%- Georgia
12.3%- LSU
5.5%- Florida
2.4%- Texas A&M
2.1%- Auburn
2.0%- Missouri
1.7%- Tennessee
1.3%- Mississippi St.
0.8%- S. Carolina
0.2%- Kentucky
Vandy, Ole Miss, and Arky apparently have zero chance.
Chances of Winning the SEC:
47.0%- Alabama
24.8%- Georgia
12.3%- LSU
5.5%- Florida
2.4%- Texas A&M
2.1%- Auburn
2.0%- Missouri
1.7%- Tennessee
1.3%- Mississippi St.
0.8%- S. Carolina
0.2%- Kentucky
Vandy, Ole Miss, and Arky apparently have zero chance.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 9:18 am to BHMKyle
Surprised Mizzou isn’t higher.
Maybe even #3 or #4.
Maybe even #3 or #4.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 9:41 am to HailToTheChiz
Saban loves some pussy schedules!!! 
Posted on 8/1/19 at 9:42 am to RatRodDawg
quote:
August 31: vs. Duke
quote:
September 7: New Mexico State
quote:
September 21: Southern Miss
quote:
November 23: Western Carolina
Not sure how Bama goes undefeated with that crazy OOC schedule.
This post was edited on 8/1/19 at 9:44 am
Posted on 8/1/19 at 9:57 am to BHMKyle
quote:
2.1%- Auburn
Posted on 8/1/19 at 9:59 am to BHMKyle
quote:
0.8%- S. Carolina
So they're saying we have a chance?
Posted on 8/1/19 at 10:00 am to BHMKyle
2.1%- Auburn
Well... there it is. Auburn will win the SEC this year.
Well... there it is. Auburn will win the SEC this year.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 12:22 pm to RatRodDawg
quote:
November 9: LSU: 74.8 percent
Given this is a home game, it seems they're pegging this to be the toughest on their schedule.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 12:24 pm to BHMKyle
That Notre Dame/Georgia game should be a good one.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 12:44 pm to 1badboy
quote:
Saban loves some pussy schedules!!!
Yep, that's why he's been one of only 2 SEC coaches calling for 9 conference games and the only one calling for an all P5 schedule. He scared.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 12:52 pm to 1badboy
quote:
Saban loves some pussy schedules!!!
quote:
November 9: LSU:
Checks out
Posted on 8/1/19 at 12:57 pm to RatRodDawg
Seems about right to me given the LSU game is at home and the other 3 are on the road. If I was just ranking the games I think we are most likely to lose I'd go
1. @ Auburn
2. @ Texas A&M
3. LSU
4. @ Mississippi State
5. @ South Carolina
So, this is basically in line with that.
1. @ Auburn
2. @ Texas A&M
3. LSU
4. @ Mississippi State
5. @ South Carolina
So, this is basically in line with that.
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