CFP ranking for Alabama

I agree it doesn't matter. I do not think the CFP committee will have Cincinnati in the top four though. I think we will be somewhere between 2-4.

I don't see how Alabama could make the CFP with 2 losses. Even losing to Georgia by 1.
The only remote chance is losing to say, LSU, yet still make it to Atlanta and beat UGA soundly. But, even then, I don't see it. They'd need chaos, like Cincinnati losing, Oregon losing, Oklahoma losing, etc

I think we're almost certainly eliminated with a loss to Georgia. It would require so much movement down-ballot that it's statistically impossible for us to make CFP with an SECCG loss. They've been pretty consistent in valuing conference championships and Oregon is there at 7-1 with virtually no competition.

Notre Dame is also at 7-1 with no CCG to worry about and a remaining schedule of UVA, GT, and Stanford.

I just don't see it at this point. We have to beat Georgia to get into CFP

ETA: This doesn't even get into some weird fanfic about the Big Ten cannibalizing itself and Wake Forest going 9-3

quote:

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Maybe 2 honestly.

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And the rest of the CFB fan bases will melt

There's a better chance of Georgia being left out with a loss to us, than there is a chance of us getting in with 2 losses.
Either way it's gonna be tough for 2 SEC teams to make the playoffs with Oregon, OSU, Oklahoma, and Cincinnati out there. I think all 4 of those teams will win out easily.

Every week from now until CFP Selection Day (12/5/21) here's a breakdown of games to be played. Bama wouldn't definitively be out with two losses given this landscape of potential chaos:

Week 10:
#5 Mich St vs Purdue (Mich St -3.0)
#7 Oregon vs Washington (Oregon -6.5)
#10 Wake Forest vs UNC (UNC -2.5)
#11 Oklahoma St vs WVU (Okla St -3.0)

Week 11:
#4 Oklahoma vs #14 Baylor
#8 Notre Dame vs Virginia
#9 Michigan vs #22 Penn St
#10 Wake Forest vs #26 NC State

Week 12:
#2 Cinci vs #23 SMU
#4 Oklahoma vs #35 Iowa State
#5 Mich St vs #6 Ohio St
#7 Oregon vs #34 Utah
#10 Wake Forest vs Clemson

Week 13:
#4 Oklahoma vs #11 Okla St
#5 Mich St vs #22 Penn St
#6 Ohio St vs #9 Michigan
#7 Oregon vs Oregon St

Week 14:
Big12 CCG Any two of: #4 Okla/#11 Okla St/#14 Baylor/#35 Iowa St

Big10 CCG One of: #5 Mich St/#6 Ohio St/#9 Mich -vs- One of: #31 Minn/#16 Iowa/#28 Wisc

ACC CCG One of: #10 Wake/#27 NC St -vs- One of: #26 Pitt/Virginia

AAC CCG Any two of: #2 Cinci/#20 Houston/#23 SMU

Pac-12 CCG #7 Oregon vs #34 Utah/ASU

1. UGA
2. MSU
3. OU
4. Cincy
5. Bama
6. Oregon
7. OSU

The CFP committee is not likely to follow the AP poll. They have shown in the past to move teams up or down without much reason, and they will probably want to create interest/drama with the first rankings. Just my thoughts, and I don't think their initial rankings will reflect the true top 4.

I think UA comes in at 3 but could be 4 if OU is ahead of us. Top 2 should be UGA and MSU. The real question is who does the committee rank at 5 or 6 between Oregon and OSU. OSU is the better team but Oregon beat them.

Cincy will be 7th and with SMU losing on Saturday they need a Hail Mary to make it in now. The committee can not have Cincy in the top four because it will be hard to justify dropping them later

MSU has played and beaten a whole lot of nothing but I am sure that means nothing to the CFP committee.

Strength of schedule means little in the beginning so they will get ranked high

1 - UGA
2 - Bama
3 - MSU
4 - OU ( scraped through so far but 3 tougher games to come)

speaking of a whole lot of nothing...who had Michigan beaten of note? to be ranked 6th? Same every year...B10 gets a lot of ranked teams for no reason...you'd think the pollsters would learn..prime example...Iowa