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Statistical Analysis Shows Alabama Gets Screwed By Holding Calls More Than Any Other Team
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:29 pm
quote:
As a follow up to my earlier thread here, I performed a deeper dive on offensive holding. In the initial thread, I found that in 2014-2017, Michigan's defense had only drawn 10 offensive holding calls, significantly less than all other B1G teams.
Defensive line performance is a poor predictor of offensive holding calls, but Michigan and Alabama both draw holding at a much lower clip than other NCAA teams.
I downloaded the 2010 – 2017 Play by Play data from the ESPN API. This contained 1,234,271 plays, during which, 82,570 penalties were called. Additionally, I correlated this data with Football Outsiders’ Offensive Line and Defensive Line statistics, found here.
Each of the 1.2M plays has a “free text” field which describes the play, and if there is one, the penalty and whom it was called on. As an example, this means Michigan could be referred to as Michigan, UM, UofM, Mich, etc. I very carefully developed an algorithm to assign the penalty called, and who it was called on and drawn by, based on this field for all NCAA games involving an FBS team. While I’m sure it wasn’t 100% accurate, I do think I did a pretty good job and designed some good tests to check this process. Probably 99%+ accurate.
Are there any good predictors of Offensive Holding being called?
Honestly, none that I could find. I found evidence that holding calls are generally random…with a slight edge given to the underdog team or team currently losing. This means the argument “Michigan’s D-Line has been amongst the best in the country, we should be getting more holding calls than everyone else” probably lacks merit based on the data.
As it turns out, Michigan and Alabama are in a special kind of unlucky streak, stretching for many years. The below is a graph of all FBS teams 2012- present (B1G teams are represented by their logos) for all games played. Michigan is towards the top right – in the “we’re getting screwed” category. The only team that has fared worse is Alabama. A lot worse. Since 2012, Alabama has drawn a holding once every 260 plays. That is nearly 2.5 times the average.
LINK
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:30 pm to Bench McElroy
So you’re saying that Alabama’s line can’t get enough of a push to draw a holding call...
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:31 pm to Bench McElroy
No
This post was edited on 10/2/18 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:31 pm to Bench McElroy
It's the timing of the calls. The refs use a formula specifically made to frick over LSU.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:32 pm to Bench McElroy
Alabama holds every play
Alabama opponents hold every play
Alabama opponents hold every play
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:34 pm to Rougarou13
quote:that's right, push aside the cognitive dissonance as the cornerstone of your football world view crashes around you.
So you’re saying that Alabama’s line can’t get enough of a push to draw a holding call...
This post was edited on 10/2/18 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:35 pm to Bench McElroy
So what you are saying is that not only does Alabama NOT get favorable holding calls they actually get SCREWED on holding calls?
Well, I just can't accept this.
Well, I just can't accept this.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:37 pm to narddogg81
Man...I’m from LA. Gotta dumb it down a bit.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Lol if there's no ref conspiracy and no schedule conspiracy then how do we explain Alabama winning? Are you trying to say they're just better at football?
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:39 pm to genro
quote:
Lol if there's no ref conspiracy and no schedule conspiracy then how do we explain Alabama winning? Are you trying to say they're just better at football?
Oh there is clearly a ref conspiracy
Against Alabama
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:42 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
Since 2012, Alabama has drawn a holding once every 260 plays. That is nearly 2.5 times the average
So Bama players cheat more than 2.5 times than the average team. Makes sense.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:42 pm to narddogg81
You misspelled cognitive...even after the edit...
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:43 pm to Rougarou13
quote:
So you’re saying that Alabama’s line can’t get enough of a push to draw a holding call
You saying Bama doesn’t have one of the top front 7s in the country most every year?
Even when Bama was top in the nation in sacks in 2015 and 2016, they still hardly had any offensive holding calls against their opponents.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:46 pm to 1BamaRTR
quote:
You saying Bama doesn’t have one of the top front 7s in the country most every year
Just calling it how I see it...stats don’t lie baw.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:48 pm to Bench McElroy
I felt sorry for Tim Williams the past couple of years. The dude would get straight mugged all game with no flags.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:50 pm to Rougarou13
quote:
stats don’t lie baw.
Of course. But people see what they want to see in them.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 4:00 pm to Teague
Texas A&M's OL got away with mugging the Bama DL time and time again.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 4:01 pm to Rougarou13
quote:probably the first time that's ever happened on the internet I would think
You misspelled cognitive...even after the edit...
Posted on 10/2/18 at 4:06 pm to narddogg81
Possibly so. I screen shot It and sent it to Al Gore just in case.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 4:08 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:There's your problem.
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