I’d love to be wrong about Mizzou…

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#33 Missouri

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?

FSU beat Bama...

Because our run defense at least starts every game bout filling holes and getting driven off the ball by three yards. They have the best RB in the SEC and a top 3 QB. It’s at Missouri so we already know Bama has struggles away from home. I’m not saying Missouri blows Bamas doors off but if bama was hyped up to beat Vanderbilt and have a let down Missouri will likely win. If Bama shows up and plays like they can they should beat Missouri. Convincingly but that Bama team has not shown up for a full game yet.

You're not wrong.

Surprised that I finally agree with you.

After last year a bye week actually scares me. We played bad after both bye weeks last year( although one loss was due to injury)

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After last year a bye week actually scares me. We played bad after both bye weeks last year( although one loss was due to injury)

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Typically going on the road and playing a team that has had two weeks to rest and scheme is tough sledding.

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Vegas doesn’t have this at -2.5 alabama for no reason.

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It's very simple. The Vegas Ratings are very similar to the Sagarin Ratings. They are very consistent with each other week to week.

Sagarin this week

Alabama 90.87
Mizzou 82.68

On a neutral field, Alabama would be favored by ~ 8 points.

HFA = 4.99 ppg

If Alabama were at home, Alabama would be favored by ~ 13 points.
Since Alabama is on the road, Alabama is favored by ~ 3 points.

The line is Alabama -2.5 which is very much in line with this calculation. Why does this happen? Because Vegas wants equal action on both sides of the bet. There ideal scenario is the exact same amount of money on both sides, because they will win the vig on the winning side with no risk at all.. and Vegas knows that a standard Joe will crunch the numbers using Sagarin or some other method to arrive at the outcome of the game.. so it all makes perfect sense.

Another example.

Texas 86.08
Oklahoma 83.97

The game is on a neutral field. Texas by 2.11 points (with Mateer). It doesn't make sense, we all agree. Oklahoma is going to kick our arse up and down the field.. but that's why the line is where it is.. As more money comes in on Oklahoma, the line will get closer to zero, maybe even flip to the other side, in order to encourage more bets on Texas to even out the numbers. Someone who knows their football should make a lot of money on Oklahoma this weekend..

Another example

Texas A&M 88.13
Florida 82.84

If Florida was at home, this game would be a pick 'em. With A&M at home, the line should be around 10 or so. The line is A&M -7.5, which means that the public likes Florida after beating Texas last week.. I personally think the line is a little high as Florida impressed me last week. We haven't been pushed around like that in about 3 years. They're really good in the trenches if they can take care of the football.

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#33 Missouri
#41 South Carolina
#115 Louisiana
#194 Central Arkansas
#209 Massachusetts

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I don't know what SP+ is, but Sagarin has Mizzou at #19 and South Carolina at #28. You conveniently left off Kansas, which Sagarin has at #43.

Surely you know that late-game comebacks are a sign of depth. Mizzou's reliance on the running game wears down defenses. I am looking for a big game from Ahmad Hardy.

Should be a great game with good football weather (80 degrees, partly cloudy). I'll be there.

Alabama has been a menace to Mizzou since we joined the SEC. You're not seeing a lot of trash talk from Mizzou fans because we're keenly aware of how our teams have performed against the Tide. Same deal for Georgia. To put it in perspective, Mizzou's record against Alabama and Georgia since we joined the SEC is a woeful 1-16 (5.8%). And while a lot of the games against Georgia have been close losses, Bama has just slaughtered us every single time. By contrast, Mizzou's record against the rest of the SEC since we joined the conference is 52-38 (57.8%).