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Ranking the Likelihood of Permanent Opponent Rivalries
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:24 am
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:24 am
100% Likely to Play Annually:
1. Auburn vs Alabama
2. Florida vs Georgia
3. Oklahoma vs Texas
4. Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
5. Alabama vs Tennessee
6. Auburn vs Georgia
7. Texas vs Texas A&M
Somewhere between 50% and 99% likely to Play Annually:
8. LSU vs Ole Miss
9. Tennessee vs Vanderbilt
10. Georgia vs South Carolina
11. Arkansas vs Texas
12. LSU vs Texas A&M
13. Arkansas vs Missouri
Best Guesses at the Remaining Matchups, ranked in order of how likely I think they are (all under 50% confidence)
14. Kentucky vs Missouri
15. Missouri vs Oklahoma
16. Arkansas vs LSU
17. Auburn vs Vanderbilt
18. Alabama vs Mississippi State
19. Kentucky vs Vanderbilt
20. Kentucky vs Mississippi State
21. South Carolina vs Texas A&M
22. Ole Miss vs Tennessee
23. Florida vs South Carolina
24. Florida vs Oklahoma
Those are my best guesses at the moment. Games I think ultimately will NOT be chosen as permanent that could end up getting picked for historical reasons would be:
Alabama vs LSU
Auburn vs Mississippi State
Kentucky vs Tennessee
Arkansas vs Ole Miss
LSU vs Mississippi State
Florida vs LSU
1. Auburn vs Alabama
2. Florida vs Georgia
3. Oklahoma vs Texas
4. Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
5. Alabama vs Tennessee
6. Auburn vs Georgia
7. Texas vs Texas A&M
Somewhere between 50% and 99% likely to Play Annually:
8. LSU vs Ole Miss
9. Tennessee vs Vanderbilt
10. Georgia vs South Carolina
11. Arkansas vs Texas
12. LSU vs Texas A&M
13. Arkansas vs Missouri
Best Guesses at the Remaining Matchups, ranked in order of how likely I think they are (all under 50% confidence)
14. Kentucky vs Missouri
15. Missouri vs Oklahoma
16. Arkansas vs LSU
17. Auburn vs Vanderbilt
18. Alabama vs Mississippi State
19. Kentucky vs Vanderbilt
20. Kentucky vs Mississippi State
21. South Carolina vs Texas A&M
22. Ole Miss vs Tennessee
23. Florida vs South Carolina
24. Florida vs Oklahoma
Those are my best guesses at the moment. Games I think ultimately will NOT be chosen as permanent that could end up getting picked for historical reasons would be:
Alabama vs LSU
Auburn vs Mississippi State
Kentucky vs Tennessee
Arkansas vs Ole Miss
LSU vs Mississippi State
Florida vs LSU
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:27 am to AUTiger789
Don't be surprised when they release the permanent opponents and you see bama vs vandy.
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:32 am to SouthernInsanity
quote:
Don't be surprised when they release the permanent opponents and you see bama vs vandy.
Well they did do that in 1992-2002. However I think ultimately Bama’s final opponent will come down to LSU or Mississippi State.
LSU if the TV execs get more of a say so than the AD’s… MSU if Bama gets their way and if the league cares about trying to balance the SOS.
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:33 am to AUTiger789
Florida vs. Oklahoma? That makes zero sense. Might as well have them play Auburn or LSU instead.
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:34 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Alabama vs LSU
quote:
Florida vs LSU
quote:
LSU vs Auburn
These have to happen.
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:37 am to TDsngumbo
LSU is gonna get Oklahoma to "solve" the last playing date TV problem.
I think LSU will get OU, OMiss, and Aggies.
I think LSU will get OU, OMiss, and Aggies.
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:39 am to GeorgeWest
The A&M game is a huge game every year, no doubt, but I enjoy Bama, Florida, and Auburn way more. Playing Bama, Florida, and Auburn every year in October and November is just right.
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:44 am to trackem
quote:
Florida vs. Oklahoma? That makes zero sense. Might as well have them play Auburn or LSU instead.
Seems I remember hearing this one was actually in the original plan… which is why I included it in my guesses… albeit with the lowest confidence.
The reason UF is unlikely to land many of their more historical rivals is this:
LSU- LSU is likely to get Ole Miss and Texas A&M ahead of Florida. That only leaves one spot left. That 3rd spot will be a debate between AL, FL, MSU, and Arky most likely. I think they’ll choose Arkansas because otherwise Arkansas’ 3 would all most certainly be expansion teams and I think they’ll want to weave some of the founders into their 3. Also it’s a trophy game.
Auburn- Florida won’t get assigned Auburn because there is no way they are going to make AU play Alabama, Georgia, and Florida every single season. Too difficult.
Tennessee- The Vols are a hot commodity in that Alabama, Vandy, and Kentucky all think their game with them will be permanent. I think the office is not going to give UT such an easy slate with both Vandy and Kentucky, so one of those will get dropped (sorry Kentucky). I think Tennessee is the most likely one of these three to get put on Florida’s schedule however I think Ole Miss-Tennessee will get picked for the Vols.
Ultimately the TV execs are going to want some big games to get assigned which is why I could see a random game between either Texas or Oklahoma and one of the original Big 6 members getting assigned. I this case, I could see OU-UF making sense.
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:44 am to AUTiger789
I’d put LSU Ole Miss at 100%
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:53 am to AUTiger789
quote:
LSU- LSU is likely to get Ole Miss and Texas A&M ahead of Florida. That only leaves one spot left. That 3rd spot will be a debate between AL, FL, MSU, and Arky most likely. I think they’ll choose Arkansas because otherwise Arkansas’ 3 would all most certainly be expansion teams and I think they’ll want to weave some of the founders into their 3. Also it’s a trophy game.
I think to put it simply, geography is going to a play a big role in these decisions because historically its the reason for some of the most heated rivalries.
For Tennessee that is going to be odd because of the shape of the state. But I think that means we lose the Florida game annually. We keep Bama and Vandy for sure. But I really think the third will be Kentucky. Its a pretty favorable draw if it shakes out that way considering the run Florida, Bama and then Georgia all went on during the past 20-25 years and the fact we played all of them every single year.
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:54 am to SouthernInsanity
quote:
Don't be surprised when they release the permanent opponents and you see bama vs vandy.
Y’all are the biggest fricking victims on earth.
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:56 am to Riseupfromtherubble
UTa will get Vandy, UK, and USCe based on how afraid the SEC is to giving them any semblance of a tough schedule.
I think LSU gets OM, TAMU, and Bama. Wouldn't be surprised with MSU, but I don't think they get both MS schools.
I think LSU gets OM, TAMU, and Bama. Wouldn't be surprised with MSU, but I don't think they get both MS schools.
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:57 am to GeorgeWest
quote:
LSU is gonna get Oklahoma to "solve" the last playing date TV problem.
I think LSU will get OU, OMiss, and Aggies.
Thank you for mentioning the LSU scheduling problem for rivalry week. It is MAJOR factor in determining the 3 permanent opponents selected for LSU, and no one wants to hear it. 1 of LSU's 3 opponents have to be available to play on rivalry week, so that means someone other than Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss or A&M.
However, I believe there is a better and more likely solution than to make LSU and Oklahoma permanent opponents:
Switch Arkansas's rivalry week opponent to LSU and switch Missouri's to Oklahoma.
-Arkansas is the only SEC team other than Oklahoma that can be made available on rivalry week.
-For LSU, Arkansas is no doubt a better rivalry week opponent than Oklahoma.
-For Oklahoma, Missouri is a better rivalry week opponent as they have a history in the Big12.
-Arkansas and Missouri can still play as permanent opponents earlier in the season.
I think the SEC head office is aware of this option, and I believe Arkansas and Ole Miss are locks for 2 of the permanent opponents for LSU.
As for the 3rd team, its more about who is available.
-I doubt they give Auburn 3 tough permanent opponents in Alabama, Georgia, and LSU.
-The same could be said for Alabama who will undoubtedly have Auburn and Tennessee as 2 of their 3.
-Florida or A&M will most likely be the 3rd for LSU. But Alabama or Auburn is possible.
This post was edited on 9/10/25 at 12:03 pm
Posted on 9/10/25 at 11:59 am to GhostofJackson
Bama isn’t getting 3 permanent opponents from the big 6. Nobody is.
Bama will get Auburn, Tennessee, Mississippi State.
LSU will get Ole Miss, Florida, and one of the Texas schools
Bama will get Auburn, Tennessee, Mississippi State.
LSU will get Ole Miss, Florida, and one of the Texas schools
Posted on 9/10/25 at 12:00 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
Ultimately the TV execs are going to want some big games to get assigned which is why I could see a random game between either Texas or Oklahoma and one of the original Big 6 members getting assigned. I this case, I could see OU-UF making sense.
I disagree. Remember in the new format, every team will play each other across 2 seasons. The big matchups will still happen.
I think the only 2 factors being considered by the SEC head office are preserving traditional rivalries and solving scheduling issues (Like the LSU-rivalry week issue)
This post was edited on 9/10/25 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 9/10/25 at 12:12 pm to AUTiger789
There is no perfect situation for everyone one, but here goes:
Locks or Near Locks:
Alabama: Auburn, Tennessee, Miss State
Arkansas: Texas
Auburn: Alabama, Georgia
Florida: Georgia
Georgia: Florida, Auburn, South Carolina
Kentucky: Tennessee
LSU: Ole Miss
Ole Miss: Miss State, LSU
Miss State: Ole Miss, Alabama
Missouri: Oklahoma
Oklahoma: Texas, Missouri
South Carolina: Georgia
Tennessee: Alabama, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Texas: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Texas A&M: Texas
Vanderbilt: Tennessee
Possible Final Set-Up:
Alabama: Auburn, Tennessee, Miss State
Arkansas: Texas, Missouri, Ole Miss
Auburn: Alabama, Georgia, Miss State
Florida: Georgia, South Carolina, LSU
Georgia: Florida, Auburn, South Carolina
Kentucky: Vanderbilt, Tennessee, South Carolina
LSU: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Florida
Ole Miss: Miss State, LSU, Arkansas
Miss State: Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn
Missouri: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Oklahoma: Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M
South Carolina: Georgia, Florida, Kentucky
Tennessee: Alabama, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Texas: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Texas A&M: Texas, LSU, Oklahoma
Vanderbilt: Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri
Rivalry Weekend Locks:
Alabama-Auburn
Florida-Florida State
Georgia-Georgia Tech
Kentucky-Louisville
Ole Miss-Miss State
South Carolina-Clemson
Tennessee-Vanderbilt
Rivalry Weekend Scene 1:
Arkansas-Texas
LSU-Texas A&M
Missouri-Oklahoma
Rivalry Weekend Scene 2:
Arkansas-Missouri
LSU-None (Tulane?)
Texas-Texas A&M
Rivalry Weekend Scene 3:
Arkansas-LSU (non-conference)
Missouri-Oklahoma
Texas-Texas A&M
Locks or Near Locks:
Alabama: Auburn, Tennessee, Miss State
Arkansas: Texas
Auburn: Alabama, Georgia
Florida: Georgia
Georgia: Florida, Auburn, South Carolina
Kentucky: Tennessee
LSU: Ole Miss
Ole Miss: Miss State, LSU
Miss State: Ole Miss, Alabama
Missouri: Oklahoma
Oklahoma: Texas, Missouri
South Carolina: Georgia
Tennessee: Alabama, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Texas: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Texas A&M: Texas
Vanderbilt: Tennessee
Possible Final Set-Up:
Alabama: Auburn, Tennessee, Miss State
Arkansas: Texas, Missouri, Ole Miss
Auburn: Alabama, Georgia, Miss State
Florida: Georgia, South Carolina, LSU
Georgia: Florida, Auburn, South Carolina
Kentucky: Vanderbilt, Tennessee, South Carolina
LSU: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Florida
Ole Miss: Miss State, LSU, Arkansas
Miss State: Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn
Missouri: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Oklahoma: Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M
South Carolina: Georgia, Florida, Kentucky
Tennessee: Alabama, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Texas: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Texas A&M: Texas, LSU, Oklahoma
Vanderbilt: Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri
Rivalry Weekend Locks:
Alabama-Auburn
Florida-Florida State
Georgia-Georgia Tech
Kentucky-Louisville
Ole Miss-Miss State
South Carolina-Clemson
Tennessee-Vanderbilt
Rivalry Weekend Scene 1:
Arkansas-Texas
LSU-Texas A&M
Missouri-Oklahoma
Rivalry Weekend Scene 2:
Arkansas-Missouri
LSU-None (Tulane?)
Texas-Texas A&M
Rivalry Weekend Scene 3:
Arkansas-LSU (non-conference)
Missouri-Oklahoma
Texas-Texas A&M
Posted on 9/10/25 at 12:17 pm to Ping Pong
quote:
However, I believe there is a better and more likely solution than to make LSU and Oklahoma permanent opponents: Switch Arkansas's rivalry week opponent to LSU and switch Missouri's to Oklahoma. -Arkansas is the only SEC team other than Oklahoma that can be made available on rivalry week. -For LSU, Arkansas is no doubt a better rivalry week opponent than Oklahoma. -For Oklahoma, Missouri is a better rivalry week opponent as they have a history in the Big12. -Arkansas and Missouri can still play as permanent opponents earlier in the season.
Amen! Get it done…it never should have been changed to begin with..
This post was edited on 9/10/25 at 12:18 pm
Posted on 9/10/25 at 12:17 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
14. Kentucky vs Missouri
17. Auburn vs Vanderbilt
20. Kentucky vs Mississippi State
21. South Carolina vs Texas A&M
22. Ole Miss vs Tennessee
24. Florida vs Oklahoma
What drugs are you taking sir?
Posted on 9/10/25 at 12:19 pm to SouthernInsanity
Nuttin wrong with bama having vandy if their other 2 permanents are Auburn and Tennessee
Posted on 9/10/25 at 12:21 pm to AUTiger789
I wish AU could play Bama/UGA/LSU/UF every year.
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