VolSquatch

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A mistake multiple people keep making is the idea that there is some sort of 'ironclad' guarantee

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A mistake multiple people keep making is pretending like there were any ironclad guarantees given to Ukriane in the first place.

They should have kept their nukes based on what they got in writing. It was meaningless word salad with no requirements.

Ukraine should ask for specific deliverables next time, if there is one. I don't want the US to give them that and have said so numerous times, but Europe should if they feel that's in their interest and it probably is.

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Of course they have a choice, Russia hasn't demonstrated the ability to take it. Ukraine is probably going to offer to relinquish it to end the war.

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I get that, but Ukraine wouldn't offer to give up land that they believed they had a decent shot of defending.

If Ukriane is actually open to conceding land that contradicts the narrative that they've turned any kind of corner because they've walked back their negotiating position. You don't start "winning" and then suggest worse terms for yourself.

So yes, if they are open to giving up land IMO they do not have a choice.

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Au contraire. The casualty rate requires the recruitment of 30,000 soldiers every month, which leaves Russian industry increasingly desperate to find workers, which leads to wage inflation. Russia's unemployment rate is something like 2.2%.

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Military recruitment pulling people out of the workforce is inflationary, absolutely. Those people not actually coming back is deflationary more broadly because you remove someone from the labor force and you remove a consumer. It's pretty much the same logic used when arguing deportations will help the economy, just far more morbid.

Russia's expanding defense industry is also a big driver (comparable if not larger than recruitment is) for wage inflation because it is desperate for workers, and those jobs would often be high paying even in peace time.

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Never mind that Ukraine produces thousands per year at $300k each. And we make 50 Tomahawks a year at $3 million apiece.


Why do you think that is?

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Being in an existential crisis and using other countries' money surely has 0 to do with their current war economy, idk what you're talking trying to imply here :lol:

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Seems like the Trump doctrine is working like a charm. What's not to like?

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I mostly do like it.

I threw in "no more aid" because there are many who would like us to resume just giving them things. Trump not sending aid right now doesn't mean the issue is settled and it won't ever be a possibility again.

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My biggest surprise is the price Putin has been willing to pay for this sorry slice of farmland and a few coal mines

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Agreed, no more aid. Ukraine isn't worth it to Russia or to us.

No problem with selling them stuff as long as it doesn't leave our own stocks depleted though.

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you actually contributed anything rather than just shitting on everything that supports Ukraine, then maybe somebody would respect you and whatever vague opinions you may have, for now

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I think I've made it pretty clear I don't care about the respect of people who cuck themselves out for a foreign country, be that Ukraine or Russia :lol:

Sorry different viewpoints trigger you so much. I hear there is a new Paw Patrol movie coming out this weekend if you want to be around people with a similar level of emotional intelligence as you.

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I think the coming mobilization will create multiple problems for Russia's army and Putin.

If it is in fact a broader scale mobilization that pulls in part from more urban populations of St. Petersburg and Moscow, then that will include with it more public visibility and awareness of the problems with the Russian army. This will result in further erosion of public support for the war thus pressuring Putin.

The Army will suffer the same exposure from increased public visibility to the issues that will be created by onboarding, equipping, training, transporting and supporting a massive volume of new troops.

While I do not think this by itself would bring it all down, it will be a few more sticks on the camel's back.

ETA; I fully expect Ukraine to target the troop onboarding and training facilities. Ukraine will want to reduce the quantity of mobilized troops before they ever reach the battlefield. Maygar is probably salivating at the prospects.

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Agree with those concerns, I'm skeptical of the impact of mobilization because of Russian ineptitude. You can add X number of people to the Russian army, but how to do utilize them to create an actual advantage vs just having more bodies to throw at the problem?

I do think the discussion at times can hover too close to "it's bad for them that Russia is mobilizing, actually" which is mostly cope. The political ramifications are real, but Ukranian strikes deep into Russia and assassinations (whether they actually did it or not, they are likely perceived that way in Russia because of their propaganda operation) maybe have actually bought Putin a little bit more leeway than he would have had otherwise politically.

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My post 2 days ago - "It's pointless to show maps at the small city and surrounding area scale."

This shows exactly why.

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It shows why you shouldn't only do that, it doesn't show that it's pointless. In larger cities those smaller scale maps can actually give you a decent picture of what's happening. We saw that with Pokrovsk and now with Kostiantyivka.

Seems like the consensus for a while has been that Rybar isn't reliable. The "kerfuffle" in here about that Rybar map was more about ISW matching what it showed than it was anyone thinking Rybar is some awesome source all of a sudden.

Credit to them for liberating villages but Oleksandrivka had a pre-war pop of 3k. Seems like Russia has bigger fish to fry elsewhere.

This is honestly kind of hilarious from the angle that it involves LSU and LSU fans turbo-melt more than anyone else.

But mostly it's just yet another sign of the times with these overpaid, coddled athletes. I can't stand entitlement. Won't be rooting for him ever again and tbh it wouldn't bother me if his ACL exploded on the fist snap of the season.

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How? Being Spanish is a national identity. If Catalonia became independent, they would by definition not be Spanish. I'm unclear as to what you mean here.

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I'm more looking at it from some combination of regional identity, historical identity, and somewhat ethnically. If a part of Mongolia suddenly voted to join China I wouldn't suddenly view those people there as Chinese even if they were Chinese citizens.