VolSquatch

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using an optical odometry system from NASA’s Martian helicopters and Qualcomm chips.

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But we aren't doing enough for them, guys! Basically ended all assistance I was told.

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Heyyyyyy

There's that mirroring again!

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I don't think this means what you think it means

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Even when I attempt to speak to you like an adult it comes out.

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Adults use Google as a source?

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Again, just promise me you won't delve into depression when Russia loses. It would hurt me too much...

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Who is the child here again?

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But hey, you don't have to take my word for it. How about believing Russian Lieutenant General and former Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs for Chechnya, bitching and whining about the success the Ukrainians are having with their new drones? Does that count? When the Russians are talking about the Ukrainians kicking their butts????

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None of this addresses any of the points previously discussed about drones. You're just deflecting again because you are yet again embarrassing yourself.

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the explosives are not weighing them down, are not something big when you see the dones and seem to be able to damage tanks etc.

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Yeah because those are drones that cost a grand or more that can handle the payload. They aren't taking out tanks with a $400 drone even if they can make and equip one for that cost

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Is it cheaper for Ukraine to build those drones than it is for Russia to arm and transport those troops to the front (we know they don't train them, and don't have to think about feeding them since they live only a day or two)?

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Ukraine isn't killing every single Russian troop with drone swarms. If they were Ukraine would have losses near 0 themselves. Do you think that's the case?

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The drones appear to cost $400 a piece.

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I can tell you right now that's bullshite :lol:

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How much and for how long. That’s what provides better information.

Drawing arrows means nothing if they move 100 feet a day for a month.

Now if the move 100 KM in a month that means more.

Understand???

It’s not a trick question. I know Russia has advanced. I want to know how far, how fast and if they are likely to envelop the city.

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I would say that doesn't really matter.

My view is that one or two things will eventually happen:

1. Ukraine will degrade Russia's ability to fund the war to the point where Russia stops going on offensives at all and just holds what they have if they can while trying to get a favorable peace deal.

2. Russia pushes Ukraine to the point where the personnel issues make large gains in short periods of time possible, or Ukraine reaches a point where they are worried about the future of the country in a population sense and just gives up the "contested" territories.

Russia doesn't need to make huge territorial gains to achieve number 2. In fact, I would argue their strategy up to this point has been inefficient in implementing what imo is obviously their strategy that I just explained BECAUSE they have focused too much on territorial gains at high loss rates. But on the other hand to keep the war's popularity (or acceptability is probably a better word) to the oligarchs and ruling class in Moscow they need some territorial gains to show progress outside of "we are at a loss ratio with the Ukrainians that we are comfortable with and we will keep doing this as long as we can maintain it".

So that said, saying "I think they will be able to take X place in Y amount of time" isn't really helpful or even possible given public knowledge because they might decide it's better to turn the area into a kill zone for a while. You have to try to advance somewhat for Ukraine to commit resources to it, and you would still try advances more in a "prodding" way to see if you can exploit an area.

I guess a TLDR is that we know Russia's overall strategy and it's not really about raw territorial gains, and that overall strategy doesn't mean they won't be super aggressive trying to take some areas while just setting up kill zones of their own in others. I would imagine they will take the town sometime this year, but who knows. I would have said the same about Pokrovsk and we saw how long that took... But they might have also been exploiting that as a kill zone for a while also.

Another gem from "Olena"

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Those red areas indicate drone paths?

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Just the general direction of assault pressure I believe.

Drone paths can't get too predictable. Part of the advantage is that they can create angles of attack you can't get with other weapons systems.

Similar playbook used for Pokrovsk, just on a larger scale

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Trump got elected BECAUSE he promised to end the bullshite in the Middle East. That is THE REASON. Americans absolutely fricking loathe the Bush/Romney pre-Trump Republican program. It will never win another national election I promise you that.

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Trump got elected because he spoke to a group of Americans who were tired of having their jobs shipped overseas and then have foreigners move in and take the ones that were left. Those people are the hardcore MAGA base. I like Trump in some ways and he frustrates me incredibly in others. I'm not typical MAGA or even a typical conservative in some ways.

Do what you will, but as for me I will not punish the GoP for trying to regime change the largest sponsor of terrorism in the world, a regime directly responsible for the deaths of who knows how many Americans. Doing the right thing doesn't always work out.