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Case for a National Seed: Auburn vs LSU
Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:36 am
Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:36 am
Someone help me out here. Make a case as to why LSU should be rated ahead of Auburn.
RPI:
#2 Auburn
#8 LSU
Head-to-Head
Auburn swept LSU 3-0
Common Opponents
Texas, Miss St, Alabama, Tennessee, S Carolina
LSU was 10-5 against this group.
Auburn was 9-6 against them.
However, Auburn was +47 in run margin to LSU’s +30.
Both teams played Bama and Miss State at home and Texas on the road. The only difference in venue among common opponents is Auburn went on the road to Tennessee while LSU got the Vols at home, and conversely, LSU went on the road to South Carolina while Auburn got the Gamecocks at home.
SEC Record
LSU finished 19-11
Auburn finished 17-13
Uncommon SEC Opponents
Auburn played Vanderbilt, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Kentucky (Combined SEC record of 66-54).
LSU played Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Missouri (Combined SEC record of 48-72).
Conclusion
Both teams have had good seasons and are deserving of a Top 8 national seed, IMO. But I’m having a hard time squaring some folks putting LSU ahead of Auburn at the moment when Auburn has a higher RPI and swept LSU in the head-to-head series.
Does a 2-game lead in the conference standings overcome the head-to-head result? No, not when you look at the difference in conference SOS. LSU had a much easier schedule, evidenced by the fact that Auburn’s SOS is ranked #1 while LSU’s is #34.
LSU’s SOS ranks dead last in the SEC. All 15 other SEC teams have an SOS rated in the Top 24 nationally, and LSU’s is a full 10 spots lower than the next easiest schedule in the SEC.
Can someone help make the case as to why LSU should be rated ahead of Auburn? Because I’m having trouble seeing it in the data.
RPI:
#2 Auburn
#8 LSU
Head-to-Head
Auburn swept LSU 3-0
Common Opponents
Texas, Miss St, Alabama, Tennessee, S Carolina
LSU was 10-5 against this group.
Auburn was 9-6 against them.
However, Auburn was +47 in run margin to LSU’s +30.
Both teams played Bama and Miss State at home and Texas on the road. The only difference in venue among common opponents is Auburn went on the road to Tennessee while LSU got the Vols at home, and conversely, LSU went on the road to South Carolina while Auburn got the Gamecocks at home.
SEC Record
LSU finished 19-11
Auburn finished 17-13
Uncommon SEC Opponents
Auburn played Vanderbilt, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Kentucky (Combined SEC record of 66-54).
LSU played Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Missouri (Combined SEC record of 48-72).
Conclusion
Both teams have had good seasons and are deserving of a Top 8 national seed, IMO. But I’m having a hard time squaring some folks putting LSU ahead of Auburn at the moment when Auburn has a higher RPI and swept LSU in the head-to-head series.
Does a 2-game lead in the conference standings overcome the head-to-head result? No, not when you look at the difference in conference SOS. LSU had a much easier schedule, evidenced by the fact that Auburn’s SOS is ranked #1 while LSU’s is #34.
LSU’s SOS ranks dead last in the SEC. All 15 other SEC teams have an SOS rated in the Top 24 nationally, and LSU’s is a full 10 spots lower than the next easiest schedule in the SEC.
Can someone help make the case as to why LSU should be rated ahead of Auburn? Because I’m having trouble seeing it in the data.
This post was edited on 5/19/25 at 9:38 am
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Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:39 am to AUTiger789
The Barn because they didn't get mercy ruled by an in state directional school.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:39 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Can someone help make the case as to why LSU should be rated ahead of Auburn? Because I’m having trouble seeing it in the data.
quote:
LSU finished 19-11 Auburn finished 17-13
Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:48 am to JonTheTigerFan
It’s the same argument for a 10-2 SMU/Indiana over 9/3 Bama/Ole Miss, the record is always the most important metric.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:49 am to AUTiger789
LSU 42-13, 19-11
Auburn 38-17, 17-13
Best way to put this:
LSU will be a national seed despite the Auburn sweep, due to the overall season.
Auburn might be a national seed, because of the sweep.
Auburn 38-17, 17-13
Best way to put this:
LSU will be a national seed despite the Auburn sweep, due to the overall season.
Auburn might be a national seed, because of the sweep.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:51 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Someone help me out here. Make a case as to why LSU should be rated ahead of Auburn.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:51 am to ukraine_rebel
quote:
It’s the same argument for a 10-2 SMU/Indiana over 9/3 Bama/Ole Miss, the record is always the most important metric.
That’s football. This is baseball. But I’ll bite…
Do you think that had Bama and/or Ole Miss defeated Indiana and/or SMU soundly in the regular season that they still would have been passed over? Do you really think the committee would have ignored the head to head result because of a 1-game record differential? Surely not.
This post was edited on 5/19/25 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:57 am to Scoob
quote:
LSU 42-13, 19-11
Auburn 38-17, 17-13
Best way to put this: LSU will be a national seed despite the Auburn sweep
But walk through the numbers to figure out why LSU finished ahead in the standings. Looking at those uncommon SEC opponents again…
Auburn played a series against Vanderbilt.
LSU played a series against Arkansas.
Those are very comparable.
Auburn played a series against Kentucky.
LSU played a series against Oklahoma.
Again, those are comparable.
What’s left?
Auburn played series against Georgia and Ole Miss….. One a projected Top 5 national seed with the #1 RPI and the other in line to possibly host a Regional.
LSU played Texas A&M and Missouri…. Both in line to miss the NCAA Tournament all together with one being the all-time worst SEC team in the history of the league.
How the F does one not think that was the only difference in the conference standings?
This post was edited on 5/19/25 at 9:59 am
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:07 am to AUTiger789
quote:
LSU finished 19-11
Auburn finished 17-13
This is the only stat that matters.
Cry more.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:08 am to AUTiger789
D1 has Auburn #6 national seed and LSU #7.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:14 am to UltimateHog
quote:
D1 has Auburn #6 national seed and LSU #7.
Let’s hope sanity prevails with the committee as well.
The reason this matters is while the SEC absolutely deserves 6 National Seeds, we have no idea if the committee will actually allow that to happen. If they decide to only give us 5, one team is on the chopping block.
Texas, Vandy, Arkansas, and Georgia seem like they are pretty much locks at the moment.
Auburn and LSU both should be based on resume, but one might get bumped just because the committee might not allow us to have 5.
If that happens, that’s when this comparison between the two will become highly important.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:15 am to AUTiger789
LSU is a lock. Think cfp committee favoring Bama
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:18 am to AUTiger789
As long as Auburn gets a National Top 8 seed, why do you care????
The only thing that I care about is that LSU is a Top 8 seed. Whether they are a 5 and Auburn is a 7 or Auburn is a 5 and LSU is a 7 is completely irrelevant.
The only thing that I care about is that LSU is a Top 8 seed. Whether they are a 5 and Auburn is a 7 or Auburn is a 5 and LSU is a 7 is completely irrelevant.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:22 am to AUTiger789
The SEC is far and away the best conference this year, so SEC record counts very heavily.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:26 am to AUTiger789
Both are locks to getting national seeds. What's the point of this thread?
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:30 am to Tammany Tom
quote:
As long as Auburn gets a National Top 8 seed, why do you care????
No shite. That’s the whole point of the thread. Both are deserving of being Top 8. But it’s going to boil down to whether the committee will allow 6 teams from one league to all get national seeds.
If they decide no, one is on the chopping block.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:31 am to AUTiger789
You did play Vandy early in the year before they started playing well. Let's see what happens in the SECt.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:32 am to AUTiger789
LSU will more than likely get the nod over Auburn because of LSU baseball brand and past performances and SEC record.
Not saying Auburn is not deserving, but LSU in the post season is a big draw
Not saying Auburn is not deserving, but LSU in the post season is a big draw
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:32 am to AUTiger789
OP is right. It makes about as much sense as LSU fans saying if Arkansas lost the series against Tennessee that they shouldn’t host a super. Doesn’t pass the smell test
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:34 am to AUTiger789
quote:
No shite. That’s the whole point of the thread. Both are deserving of being Top 8. But it’s going to boil down to whether the committee will allow 6 teams from one league to all get national seeds.
So…. Why single out LSU???
Auburn is competing with 10-12 schools for a top 8 national seed, just like lsu is.
I can make a case for LSU over lots of those 10-12 teams.
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