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12-1 Oregon vs 12-1 Alabama...who gets the final playoff spot?
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:47 am
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:47 am
I personally think Georgia's offense is going to dink and dunk methodically down the field on Alabama all game long and win by anywhere from 10 and 17 points but if Alabama does pull the upset I think it comes down to Oregon and Alabama for the last playoff spot
Assuming FSU, Texas, and Michigan take care of business, who gets the 4th spot?
12-1 Oregon:
Wins over #3 Washington, #14 Arizona, and #21 Oregon State. Lone loss @ Washington
or
12-1 Alabama:
Wins over #1 Georgia, #11 Ole Miss, and #13 LSU. Lone loss to #7 Texas
One would assume the Big Ten will lobby for new incoming member Oregon getting in and voters everywhere outside of the SEC footprint will as well.
On the other hand, some will be swayed by Alabama having far and away the best win and slightly better wins against ranked teams than Oregon has.
My gut says Oregon gets in but it'll be close
Assuming FSU, Texas, and Michigan take care of business, who gets the 4th spot?
12-1 Oregon:
Wins over #3 Washington, #14 Arizona, and #21 Oregon State. Lone loss @ Washington
or
12-1 Alabama:
Wins over #1 Georgia, #11 Ole Miss, and #13 LSU. Lone loss to #7 Texas
One would assume the Big Ten will lobby for new incoming member Oregon getting in and voters everywhere outside of the SEC footprint will as well.
On the other hand, some will be swayed by Alabama having far and away the best win and slightly better wins against ranked teams than Oregon has.
My gut says Oregon gets in but it'll be close
40
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:51 am to Govt Tide
quote:
My gut says Oregon gets in but it'll be close
Same, although Bama would be more deserving.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:51 am to Govt Tide
Bama cause it’s bama
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:56 am to Govt Tide
Texas does . Hook’Em
Posted on 11/28/23 at 6:56 am to Govt Tide
Since both are 12-1 and CC all you have left are strength of schedule and the eye test. For SOS, I've seen different #s from different sources but all of them have Bama's SOS much stronger than Oregon's. For the eye test, early this year I would say Oregon had the edge but in the last few games I think it's evened up. Overall, SOS is what stands out the most and that puts Bama in.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:06 am to Govt Tide
Oregon didn’t play/beat Arizona looking at their schedule. Only win in Top 25 currently is Oregon St which is the only team in top 25 with 4 losses. If Alabama were to beat Georgia, they would have best win and best loss and best SoS by a pretty good margin. Alabama should get in over Oregon but Oregon is the media darling this year so who knows.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:08 am to Govt Tide
The winner of the SECCG is getting in.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:11 am to Govt Tide
A win over #1 is the last data point.
I think I’d pick them IF they beat UGA.
Strangely, I don’t think Texas would beat any of the teams in contention.
Bama is certainly more sure about what they can and cannot do now than in September.
To get Bama and UGA both in would probably take a monumental upset by Michigan or 2 upsets in B12 and ACC championship games.
It could happen. Strange things happen late in seasons. It probably won’t happen, but it’s possible.
Most likely playoff teams
1. UGA
2. Michigan
3. Florida State
4. Texas
Just out
5. Winner of Washington vs Oregon
IF upsets abound:
1. Alabama
2. UGA
3. Michigan
4. Winner Washington vs Oregon
I think I’d pick them IF they beat UGA.
Strangely, I don’t think Texas would beat any of the teams in contention.
Bama is certainly more sure about what they can and cannot do now than in September.
To get Bama and UGA both in would probably take a monumental upset by Michigan or 2 upsets in B12 and ACC championship games.
It could happen. Strange things happen late in seasons. It probably won’t happen, but it’s possible.
Most likely playoff teams
1. UGA
2. Michigan
3. Florida State
4. Texas
Just out
5. Winner of Washington vs Oregon
IF upsets abound:
1. Alabama
2. UGA
3. Michigan
4. Winner Washington vs Oregon
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:13 am to Govt Tide
My gut says Alabama jumps Oregon, Bo Nix wins the Heisman, and the media uses it all as a narrative to justify the 12 team playoff.
I think most college football fans are disgruntled about the changing landscape. So whichever scenario gives the TV networks the best chance at making more money will be the one.
Edit - LSU fans might think I’m trying to sleight Daniels with Nix winning the Heisman. That’s not what I mean. I mean that they will give Nix the Heisman solely to set up the narrative that Oregon was screwed in the playoff and that the 12 team playoff will be better for the sport.
I think most college football fans are disgruntled about the changing landscape. So whichever scenario gives the TV networks the best chance at making more money will be the one.
Edit - LSU fans might think I’m trying to sleight Daniels with Nix winning the Heisman. That’s not what I mean. I mean that they will give Nix the Heisman solely to set up the narrative that Oregon was screwed in the playoff and that the 12 team playoff will be better for the sport.
This post was edited on 11/28/23 at 7:16 am
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:16 am to Govt Tide
Ducks win and avenge the loss. 0 chance they get left out but keep dreaming so you can sleep better at night.
This post was edited on 11/28/23 at 7:18 am
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:16 am to Govt Tide
Alabama since they would have beaten Georgia
We shall see, as I think Bama wins by 14 this weekend.
Those that point out the Auburn game do not know the recent history of that game.
We shall see, as I think Bama wins by 14 this weekend.
Those that point out the Auburn game do not know the recent history of that game.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:21 am to Govt Tide
quote:
12-1 Alabama:
Also on their resume is a miracle pulled-out-of-their-butt last second win over a 6-5 team with their worst roster since the 1970s.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:25 am to Govt Tide
SEC champ that just beat #1 team won't be left out. My only concern is 12-1 UGA getting in just like 2021.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:30 am to Govt Tide
Oregon avenging a 3 point road loss ; you just can’t get past that.. Oregon won the first first meeting everywhere but the scoreboard.. I think the committee considers them undefeated
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:39 am to Govt Tide
quote:
12-1 Oregon: Wins over #3 Washington, #14 Arizona, and #21 Oregon State. Lone loss @ Washington or 12-1 Alabama: Wins over #1 Georgia, #11 Ole Miss, and #13 LSU. Lone loss to #7 Texas
You should be using the CFP rankings. Doesn’t look like you are.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:45 am to Govt Tide
honestly, seeing bama ranked as low as they are with just 1 loss (albeit lots of people were down on them early with just how they looked), i think the SEC fatigue is real. i think its why they wont get voted in, and i think its why Daniels wont win the heisman. they are aching for a west coast team to be relevant.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:48 am to Govt Tide
Bama.
Better wins, better loss, better schedule. SEC champ. The SEC has had a team win, or lose the title game for 17 consecutive years.
Better wins, better loss, better schedule. SEC champ. The SEC has had a team win, or lose the title game for 17 consecutive years.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:50 am to Govt Tide
I think Oregon but it should be Bama
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:52 am to Govt Tide
Bama with a win over UGA? Bama is in. They're playing better.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 7:56 am to Govt Tide
SEC champ over Pac-12 is a given every year, expect the year the PAC gets dismantled. That is the one unknowable factor.
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